If there is a global party on...India's gonna lead!As the US Inflation numbers came soft, all doubts about Fed hiking rates in December were gone. That led to all currencies strengthening against the $. US Yields colled off, Dollar Index came down and US Equities soared.
Indian markets also joined the party. The Rupee made strong gains making new multi week highs. G Sec Yields came off highs and Sensex and Nifty just took off to the skies.
As global uncertainity eases, India stands to benefit the most over the next few decades when we rise up the ranks as a global economic superpower.
USDINR
USDINR: Symmetric Pattern Formation Could Precede a Breakout
USDINR is currently forming a symmetrical pattern, which is a consolidation pattern that can precede a breakout in either direction. Swing traders should wait for a clear breakout before taking a position.
Trade with Symmetrical Patterns: A Simplified Guide
Symmetrical triangles signal potential trend pauses or consolidations. Breakouts from these patterns often lead to strong directional moves.
Key Steps:
Identify the triangle: Connect lower highs and higher lows with trendlines.
Determine breakout direction: Analyze the preceding trend.
Place entry orders: Buy above upper trendline for uptrend breakouts, sell below lower trendline for downtrend breakouts.
Set stop-loss orders: Protect profits outside the triangle's boundaries.
Establish profit targets: Base targets on the triangle's height.
Remember:
False breakouts can occur.
Use risk management to protect capital.
Combine triangles with other indicators for a comprehensive approach.
USDINR Price Fluctuations: Key News Events to Watch
USDINR, the currency pair representing the Indian rupee against the US dollar, is highly susceptible to various news events and economic indicators. Here are some key news events to watch:
Global Economic Events: US Federal Reserve monetary policy, US economic data, and global economic conditions.
India-Specific News: RBI monetary policy, Indian economic data, and Indian government policies.
Geopolitical Events: Political instability and regional events.
Happy trading!
Disclaimer :
This is merely a trading idea and not a financial recommendation. It is crucial to conduct your own research and consider your investment goals and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
Good News Just Doesn't Stop Coming Out of IndiaOver the past few days, there has been a steady fall in Indian yields, largely due to fall in US yields and falling crude oil prices. The rupee has been stable for over a year now; it is this kind of predictability in the economyu that makes India an attractive investment destination vis-a-vis its peers.
As we approach Mahurat Trading, we are crucial resistance levels but the fundamentals and technicals appear to be building up for a rally.
No one can pre empt the markets, hence the indicator script linked below is useful. Whenever the current candle makes a lower low than the previous candle, it gets trigerred and buys. That way we keep buying on lows and pulling the average cost down.
Smiplified Bank Nifty Analysis! - 7th Nov'23Looks Bulls are entering which kept market floating for past 2 days might get good movement by tomorrow or expiry, if open without gaps or open in previous days range.
- As per trend analysis bulls making lower highs as support may hit 43800
- Bullish move above 43800 , Resistance at 43970
- 43600 may act as support & resistance both.
- 43400 support on down side
Note - do your own analysis before making any trade or investment!
Implications of small changes in US Bond Yields and USDINR As US Yields cool off a tad bit, it results into Dollar index cooling and Rupee strengthening. Our Forex Reserves increased, our yields fell and our benchmark equity indices soared. India's maiden 50 year bond issue was oversubscribed and that shows how much interest and confidence there is about India over the coming few decades.
India's largest Festival season - Diwali is on and that is adding to the positive mood and momentum.
Technicals also seem to be changing from sell to buy - but it is early days yet.
So the script works just fine in these conditions as in all other ones. If market makes a new low as compared to previous candle, it buys one unit, thereby effectively pulling the average cost down.
US Fed keeps rates unchanged - Indian markets rejoiceAs the FED did not tinker with rates, Indian equity markets saw a gap up opening. This was probably on the hope tha FII selling will subside and the continuous fall which we were witnessing may pause/ stop.
India's largest festival - Diwali - is on, followed by the Union Budget coming in early 2024 and soon after that the central elections would be announced.
So lot of news flow expected going forward.
Algos help take the subjectivity and emotions out of the decision making, and that is what i have explained in the end of this video idea.
USDINR - all time highs will be taken out in November?USD is making some serious inroads. INR trailing behind unable to maintain the equilibrium.
83.4210 is the current ATH. Today we went up to 83.3010. TVC:DXY at 107.
Continued FII selling will only add fuel to the fire. When the Indian media houses are gung-ho about the decadal that belongs to India & its growth story - the people outside are not that interested.
TVC:US30Y quoting 4.945% looks exciting from a debt perspective !
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A rising USDINR means the INR is getting devalued. Calendar year 2022 saw an erosion of 11.07%, YTD is only 0.61% - will the rising US yield + war in middle east further erode the Indian Rupee??
Tight Liquidity Globally as well as locally pulls Equities downRising US Yields are attracting liquidity from all assets. Also, in the domestic markets the yield curve has become flat.
From being normal sloping during height of Covid to flat today; the shape and level of the yield curve have repercussions on investors.
This video examines the liquidity situation globally as well as locally and tracks leading indicators to get a sense of whether the trend is reversing any time soon.
These fundamental factors lead to technical charts being formed which are now looking more and more bearish.
Finally this video puts it all together to convert all the analysis into action. The script which i have shared is a simple indicator ewhich checks if the low of the current candle is lower than the previous one, and if so, it triggers a buy alert.
Simple as it sounds, is also very effective in pulling the buying average down as we increase the quantity of our holding.
Indian and US G Sec Yields and impact on USDINR and EquitiesBond Yields in India are anchored at 7% whereas in US the curve is inverted and interest rates are going to be 'higher for longer'.
Inspite of this Rupee is not getting hammerred, due to huge forex reserves and even the Indian stock market is fairly resilient, thanks to deluge of local money.
So going forward, a long term investor is likely to benefit if he/ she keeps buying the dip and just stay invested.
USDINR - REVERSAL PLAYThe Indian Rupee (INR) has depreciated by 1 RS against the US dollar in the past month and is approaching its historical peak, a potential reversal opportunity. Consider taking a short position, using a tight stop loss set at the all-time high of 83.6 . This decision is bolstered by the presence of a bearish divergence, lending further support to this strategy.
USDINR Asceding Trangle Pattern The weekly chart of the USD INR is the ascending trangle pattern formation: In the techanical view the probability of the brackout is high as compare to the brackdown.
Currently the crude price hike, this is negative effect the USDINR
Next year is the election, previous chart patter show election year Rupee is fall
Foreign investor sold the indian market
De-dollarisation - I don't think soI have just tried to count waves here in USDINR pair for period of around last one year
(almost).
Well it doesnt look atall that dollar is weakning in near future.
In fact it may remain strong for next couple of year (approx).
Huge huge consolidation almost at same place for last 1 year and now
its almost completed.
Should start heading north very soon and with some good momentum.
Lets see how it goes.
Stay alert
All the best.,
DOLLAR INDEXHello & welcome to this analysis
In the daily time frame it has now come to a falling trendline resistance which has also activated a Bearish Harmonic Reciprocal ABCD pattern. Coincidentally, the swing low was also formed with a Bullish Harmonic ABCD pattern.
A retracement from here could take it to 102.75 and below that 102.15. The pattern would be considered negated above 103.90
USDINRCompressing above the short-term EMAs.
The downwaves have shortened and the up waves have made relatively equal highs.
Potential selling absorption is on the horizon, possibly within the next few months.
Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Rupee is gearing up for move!!!!Rupee is gearing up for move if dollar index starts closing below 99 then rupee will move towards 80 & 78. If dollar index move towards 104 then rupee can give more above 83 towards 85 & 87 then Bank Nifty also take back seat & IT sector move. Trade with stoploss & happy trading.
USDINR | Make Or BreakSummary:
The USD/INR stock chart has exhibited a prolonged phase of long consolidation, indicating a period of relative price stability and indecision between the US dollar and the Indian rupee. This consolidation pattern often occurs after a significant price movement and suggests that market participants are assessing their positions before taking the next major directional move.
During this consolidation, a flag and pole pattern has emerged on the weekly time frame. The flag and pole pattern is a technical chart pattern that consists of a strong price rally (pole) followed by a sideways or slightly downward price movement (flag). This pattern is considered a continuation pattern, implying that the market will likely resume its uptrend once the consolidation phase is over.
Given the current setup of the flag and pole pattern, traders and investors should closely monitor the USD/INR price action to determine its potential future direction. A breakout to the upside of the flag could signal a continuation of the previous uptrend, indicating a potential rise in the USD/INR exchange rate. On the other hand, a breakdown to the downside of the flag might indicate a reversal, suggesting a decline in the USD/INR exchange rate.
It is important to be vigilant and wait for a clear and decisive breakout or breakdown from the flag pattern before making trading decisions. Technical analysis tools such as trendlines, support, and resistance levels can help identify potential entry and exit points based on the price action. Additionally, keeping an eye on fundamental factors that can impact the USD/INR exchange rate, such as economic data, geopolitical events, and central bank policies, can provide valuable insights to supplement the technical analysis.
Ultimately, the direction of the USD/INR exchange rate will depend on the prevailing market sentiment, economic conditions, and geopolitical developments at the breakout or breakdown from the consolidation and flag and pole pattern. Traders and investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough analysis before making any trading decisions.
USDINR Possible Elliott wave counts Hello Friends
Here we had shared possible Elliott wave counts on chart of USDINR, which is clearly showing that on bigger scale we are in 5th wave of some higher degree, in which we had finished wave (1)-(2)-(3) and currently we are in either in wave (4) or in wave 2 of wave (5).
Also both scenarios are discussed in this video post, you can go through this video post which is explained in best possible way for Educational purpose only.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Possible scenario
Alternate scenario
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.