USDINR
USDINR multi time frame aligned Elliott wave counts analysisUSDINR possible and aligned Elliott wave structure of multi time frames from monthly to hourly.
Monthly chart
Weekly chart
Daily chart
4 Hourly chart
1 Hourly chart
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Disclaimer.
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
USDINR Analysis as per Elliott Wave TheoryUSD-INR after such a steep rise looks like it is in the 5th wave of bigger degree .
Within this bigger 5th wave, which should ideally be the last wave of a Major Rise, normally consists of 5 sub waves in smaller degree .
Now, Market is looking in 3rd wave of sub degree of bigger 5th wave that I was talking about in the previous two lines.
USDINR: Bearish Divergence in hourly chartIn FX_IDC:USDINR here are the features we can see:
There is a clear bullishness throughout the session. I would say Very Bullish. All candles are hollow and green in hourly charts.
There is a bearish divergence in the #USDINR hour chart. Price highs are not sustained by RSI new highs - shown in the photo
Most likely: the uptrend will pause as there is a momentum missing.
So Dec Future is a short candidate for USDINR.
Find a perfect Trend Line With this check listThere are many traders out there who trade trend lines. Mastering trend lines is not easy as it seems, with experience things changes with your perception about Trend Lines. What I learned from my experience is that it is important to find a trend line, but it is more important to filter it so that, we can trade only the potential opportunities. Here I do not say that those trades which we filter out will not work or we efficiently filter out those less profitable trades, because adding a filter in your system not only filter trades which are unprofitable but also filter out profitable trades.
You have to accept that you are leaving better for best.
So, what are the check points I follow to filter out Trend Lines,
1) Touches, I prefer more than three touches and I strictly follow it. See what happens with two touch the number of trades increases too much; I am not saying trend line with two touches does not work but that trend line cannot be of higher profit potential than 3 or four touches.
2) Distance between touches, it is stated that if touches have equal distance between them the trend line is considered as a good Trend Line, but i do not strictly apply if the touches are places at enough spacing and the distance between then approximately equal that it is a good Trend Line. I do check distances but not strict on it.
3) Apply your own logic, this is a very subjective thing, person to person it will vary. Every trader looks the same setup differently, setups will only work when his psychology matches with those setups otherwise it will not work. Build your own logic.
At last, I want to end this post by a quote I have in my mind.
"True Knowledge cannot be taught, it can only be caught."
USDINR case studyUSD INR 80.88
ELLIOT WAVE STUDY
Time frame :- Daily
Completion :- corrective wave 4
Unfold :- impulse wave 5
RSI :- Hidden bearish divergence with respect to price
Counter is on verge to mature its corrective wave 4 ,which as per ascending parallel channel have demand zone around 80.45 to 80.00 levels
once corrective wave 4 is completed , impulse wave 5 might unfold which might lead to levels of 81.9---82.9--83.9
view remains valid till counter manage to sustain above 79.6 on closing basis.
Time for bulls to take charge.
Bear Trap in USDINRLast day bear trap is formed in USDINR, it simply means that it will be bullish for coming few days and can go up to at least high of double top i.e.,83.10 (might break that also).
Let us decode the sentiments during this candle formation,
On 26th when this big bearish candle gives closing below last swing low, people would have shorted it taking double top in consideration (putting SL above that breakout candle), now after last day big bullish candle there will be some fear among people having short position as it moved close to their SL. Once it move above 26th bearish candle a small rally on upside may come as the SL of all the short position will get hit.
USDINR Oct ViewHey Folks !
USDINR Correction did a pennant breakout instead of the Breakdown as expected in earlier post...
So, we will trade what we see in market instead of what we expect...
Now for a longer term the trend has turned bullish with a Resistance Breakout and EMA Positive Cross Over (PCO)
If you see in the above chart, we have seen similar pattern previously and
after this pennant / flag Breakout gave two targets - 1. Flag length and 2. Pole length
So, now presently, also we have same pattern breakout...
Let's bet safe and trade Bull Put Spreads for next month...
Plan Your Trade ! and Trade Your Plan !
Happy Learning !
USDINR SELL OPPORTUNITYDon't miss the great SELL Opportunity in USDINR.
USDINR created a Ascending Channel Pattern and it's at major resistance of channel pattern and probably it'll bounce back to support zone which is at 80. The 1st target is 80.15
Entry: 81.47
SL: 82.07
TP1: 80.15
TP2: 77.15
RR Ratio: 1:8 Reward