XAUUSD DOWNTRENDIntro Gold
Gold price continues to draw support from bets for a 50 bps Fed rate cut in September.
Falling US bond yields and softer USD also act as a tailwind for the non-yielding metal.
Bulls, however, seem reluctant and await the release of the US NFP report on Friday.
Price Tag
Sell at 2526 - 2530 SL at 2533
TP at 2440
Volatilty
BankNifty Taking Support From Fibb Levels BankNifty Taking Support From Fibb Levels
Today market is extremely volatile. in such a volatile and bleeding market always follow FIBB
Banknifty after a severe crashhh of Straight 700++ points, taking support from FIBB levels 0.50 - 0.618 Levels
Upcoming Positional Target 49000
which is 2000 Points from CMP 47200
as you can see clearly from charts
Trading Volatility: Making Money When Markets Get WildVolatility means how much an asset's price changes over time. Some traders see it as a risk, but experienced traders know it can also bring chances to make money. In this article, we'll explore trading volatility, explain key ideas, and offer practical tips for profiting in unpredictable markets.
Understanding Volatility: What It Is Volatility is how much an asset's price moves up and down. High volatility means big price swings, while low volatility means steadier prices. Volatility trading is not for everyone. It is a risky activity that requires a deep understanding of the markets and a sound risk management strategy. Traders who are new to the markets or who do not have a high risk tolerance should avoid volatility trading.
Why Volatility Matters
Volatility matters for a few reasons:
Profit opportunities: Prices can move quickly, creating chances to buy low and sell high, or vice versa
Risk management: Having a trading plan and sticking to it is essential for risk management. A trading plan should outline your entry and exit criteria, as well as your risk management strategy. For example, you should decide how much money you are willing to risk on each trade and how you will manage your losses.
Timing is everything: Volatile markets can provide good entry and exit points for traders. It is important to be aware of market conditions so you can take advantage of these opportunities.
Practical Tips for Trading Volatility
Use Volatility Indicators: Watch indicators like the Average True Range (ATR) or the Volatility Index (VIX). They help you spot when markets are wild and when it's best to trade.
* Average True Range (ATR): ATR measures the average price range over a specified period, giving traders insights into the asset's volatility. When ATR values spike, it indicates heightened market volatility, signalling potential trading opportunities.
* Volatility Index (VIX): Often referred to as the "fear gauge," VIX gauges market sentiment by measuring the expected volatility in the S&P 500. High VIX levels typically correspond to increased market turbulence.
Volatility indicators can be used to identify trading opportunities in a number of ways. For example, the ATR can be used to set stop-loss orders at a distance that is appropriate for the asset's volatility. The VIX can be used to identify periods of high volatility, which may offer more trading opportunities.
Embrace Options Trading: Options are contracts that let you buy or sell assets at specific prices by certain dates. They can be useful in turbulent markets. Strategies like straddles or strangles can help you profit from big price moves, no matter the direction.
*Straddles :These are versatile options strategies that can be employed during volatile periods. A straddle involves buying both a call and a put option with the same strike price and expiration date. It profits from significant price movements in either direction.
*Strangles: A strangle is similar but involves buying call and put options with different strike prices, allowing traders to capitalise on volatility without committing to a specific price direction.
Options trading can be a complex and expensive way to trade volatility. However, it can also be a very effective way to profit from big price moves. Traders who are considering using options to trade volatility should make sure they understand the risks involved.
Set Stop-Loss Orders: In wild markets, set stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Decide how much risk you can handle and set stop levels accordingly.
Diversify Your Portfolio: Spread your investments across different assets. This reduces the impact of volatility on your overall portfolio. Choose assets that don't move in sync with each other.
Challenges of Trading Volatility
Trading in volatile markets presents unique challenges:
Quick Thinking: Traders must make decisions swiftly as market conditions can change rapidly. This requires adaptability and staying informed.
Emotional Discipline: Emotions can run high in turbulent markets. Maintaining emotional discipline is crucial to avoid impulsive decisions driven by fear or greed.
Additional Tips for Managing Risk in Volatile Markets
Position Sizing: Determine the size of your trades based on your risk tolerance and the specific volatility of the asset. Smaller positions can help limit potential losses.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Always assess the potential reward against the risk before entering a trade. A favourable risk-reward ratio is essential for long-term success.
Trading Psychology: Developing a robust trading mindset is key. Stick to your trading plan, maintain discipline, and avoid overtrading.
Examples of Trading Volatility
Let's look at some examples:
Volatile Currency Pair: Imagine you're trading the EUR/USD currency pair during a time of uncertainty. The ATR indicator shows high volatility. To profit from this, you enter a short-term trade, taking advantage of rapid price swings.
Stock Earnings Announcement: You're trading a tech stock known for big price moves during earnings reports. Before the report, you buy options using a straddle strategy. This lets you profit from significant price moves, whether up or down, after the earnings news.
Final thought : Trading in volatile markets can be both rewarding and challenging. Understanding volatility, using helpful indicators, and managing risk are key to making money when markets get wild. Always remember that trading involves risks, so it's essential to have a solid plan and stay disciplined in unpredictable conditions.
Adani Stocks, Valuations, Volatility and ConsolidationAdani Stock are in limelight after Hindenburg research. Stocks have fallen heavily after the news and FPO had been withdrawn.
Lets try to understand by combining Valuation fundamentals, Technical analysis and volatility. Also try to decode what usually happens after such wild moves.
1. Adani Stocks were on continuous rise after Covid drop
2. Valuations of some of Adani group stock reached sky high. PE multiples of some of the stocks are still above 100.
3. When stock makes top with extreme valuations there is chance of sharp correction.
4. There is no definite method to identify stock top yet from confluence of price action, volume and indicators one can identify them like Candlestick reversal pattern, Divergence on weekly or daily charts on MACD or RSI and abnormal selling volume are few to look out for.
5. Stock sharp correction is linked to volatility or Fear which can give wild moves on both up and down side
6. Volatility then gets contracted and stocks goes in long consolidation
7. It may make smaller new low but still for good amount of time it won't recover and hit fresh highs
Similar example is IRCTC check image below to understand in which phase Adani stocks are
Disclaimer: This is just educational analysis, readers shouldn't conclude this as ultimate truth and need to conduct their own studies. Stock markets are dynamic in nature as human emotions are involved. Anything and everything possible.
Disclosure: Don't own IRCTC or any Adani stocks nor have any bad will against them.
NIFTY - Decisive move on tuesday?- Nifty moving within a Falling channel
- Unable to sustain below the upwards trendline
- Previous fall from 15827.85
- ADX showing a upward direction
- Rsi above 60
It can be R (15827/15880) to S (15550) or a Breakout, can get a clear direction on Monday's closing / Tuesday. (convergence of falling channel and upwards trendline)