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Crude Oil AnalysisHello Friends, Hope you find doing well. As there are so up down in market now a days because of many reasons Elections, war, Global data, USDINR, DXY. So based on following all parameter i am trying to analysis crude oil price action, hope it helpful for all commodities trader. As we can see in chart it is making bullish flag pattern on 4hr timeframe. So we will se break out up side and we can make better position according. It may trigger by global data or by war declare. Plan your trade according your analysis. I do not recommended to do as i said. I just analysis chart pattern and data which make positive price action. Best of luck Regards.
FX:UKOILLong
by apstockanalysis
05 Apr - Nifty was Flat, BankNifty picked up momentum!Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Now take a look at the 63mts chart, and see where the reversal came from ~ 22295 levels. That is the main reason why we said a stance change is required only if 22295 is broken and since we did not do that, we continue to remain bullish.” Nifty had no momentum today, but BankNifty had lots of it. Yesterday SPX & NDQ had a real down day and its spillover effects were visible during the opening minutes. We opened gap-down and then slowly recovered from that. There were no abrupt or wild movements for a change. That takes me to the next question, why did we really have a 300+ point fall yesterday? It was not because of RBI MPC, otherwise we would have passed the swing high. How many of you think it could be because of the worsening situation in the Middle East? Today was an inside day with no real momentum and that does not mean that we are not bullish. We will keep an eye on the Global macros, if the news about the War widening in scope both in Ukraine and Israel is true then it could really kill the optimism. Just before the macros worsen - GOLD prices go up. An escalation of tensions will shoot up the OIL prices as well. At present, we have both.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
9th Oct ’23 - War news breaks support of BankNifty PostMortem BankNifty Analysis On Friday I changed my stance from bearish to neutral since we had a strong performance. We pushed through the 44068 resistance and maintained those levels. But today we dropped below that and even closed lower. Notice we took out the 44068 level in the opening 5mts candle itself. From there we hit a new swing low of 43796 and then recovered all the way up to 44068 before falling again. Sometimes the best technical indicator that is available is the support/resistance line. If BankNifty was really having good bullish strength - it would have cut through the resistance. A fall really shows weakness. On the 1hr TF BankNifty came from a double top formation and then made an isolated down day. Followed by 2 isolated up-days. Today we have another isolated down day that tested a new swing low. 43755 and 43603 levels are beneath - but not sure if we could stop there if the fall is mainly due to global macros. Since we have broken the support today, my stance will be bearish for tomorrow. Just think - why are the banks falling? No way they would have sanctioned loans to the firms in Israel right? My wildest guess is that there could be many firms that have strong business relationships with Israel, and those companies may have a higher debt:equity ratio. I am quite sure the details of exposure will come out within the next week. Are the risks evenly balanced - I guess not.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
9th Oct ’23 - Israel's War changes sentiment - PostMortem NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For Monday, I wish to continue my neutral stance but keep my options open for bullish moves. The moment 19776 is tested and broken — we can expect further participation to take Nifty much ahead. For the bears to make a comeback — the US markets have to close in DEEP RED today.” Nifty opened mega gap-down due to the shocking developments over the weekend. Israel declared it is in a state of war after Hamas fired rockets and took hostage Israeli citizens - source. No one was expecting this sharp reversal in global macro. In fact, US markets closed last Friday pretty strong. Since I am not a Geo-political expert - I have no comments on what will happen, but the financial markets usually do not like uncertainty. The greatest risk right now is crude oil as the war is in the Middle East. If other countries join this battle - the risk of further escalation cannot be ruled out and the biggest victim could be the developing countries that import OIL. Even though the chart may confuse you, we only fell 0.86% ~ 168pts in the opening 10mts and that was the low for the day. The recovery was sharp and decent and we made it up to the 61.8% retracement level. From there we started falling but gradually. There again the low set in the initial 10mts still untouched. I had to go short today - not just because the chart told me, but because I thought fundamentally the perceived risk could be much higher. Already our markets have outperformed the global peers - and this risk-on should have prompted the FIIs to pull out more money. We might have to wait for a few days for more clarity to emerge, so I thought to take some risks with some long PUT options. The 1hr chart does not show a direction yet. If 19446 was taken out today - it would have shown bearishness - but it is neutral. For true bearishness 19350 or the recent swing low has to be taken out tomorrow. Well, I have a bearish bias because of the LONG PUT option - but the charts are not showing anything so far. If we bounce back from the 19446 level tomorrow also - I may be forced to close out the position at a loss. For tomorrow I would like to go with a 50% neutral and 50% bearish option. Nifty is not technically weak - it is the global macro that is weak. In the battle for technical analysis versus fundamental analysis - fundamental always wins especially when accompanied by strong news-flow.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
Nifty 50 Outlook for the Expiry week May 23 – May27Falcon Analytics Outlook Nifty 50 for the Expiry week ( May 23 – May27 ) As Discussed in Last Weekly Analysis Nifty sold off from major resistance @ 16387 while the major support for the week @ 15560 was not breached. Technically for this week on the daily charts we see major support on the downside for Nifty50 index lies at 15726 levels, whereas major resistance on the upside is capped around 16386 levels. If Nifty50 index breaches major support on the downside and closes below it, we may see fresh break down and index can drag towards major support on lower side around 15474/15222 and and if breaches major resistance on the upside and closes above it, we may see fresh breakout and index can head towards higher levels around 16542/16794. Currently Nifty50 index is trading Below 200 day EMA @ 16783 suggests long term trend is Bearish . Range for the week is seen from 15222 on downside and 16794 on upside. Below Mentioned Spot Levels can be used to trade Long Or Short during the week ahead. ( All Spot Levels) RESISTANCE 4: 17046 RESISTANCE 3: 16794 RESISTANCE 2: 16542 RESISTANCE 1: 16386 WEEKLY PIVOT LEVELS: 16134 SUPPORT 1: 15882 SUPPORT 2: 15726 SUPPORT 3: 15474 SUPPORT 4: 15222 All above views for education purpose only. Regards, MD .
NSE:NIFTYShort
by miraldesai
CTS - #VIXGet out of stocks, very bad time to buy something in historical highs and in a face of war/nuclear war. Im finding entries in swiss franc. Regards This analysis is designed to provide information that CTS believes to be accurate on the subject matter, but is shared with the understanding that the author is NOT offering individualized advice tailored to any specific portfolio or the particular needs of any individual. The author of the analysis specifically disclaims any responsibility for any personal or other loss or risk incurred as a consequence, directly or indirectly, of the use and application of any of the contents of this analysis.
CBOE:VIXLong
by CaliforniaTS