Welspun Living Date 03.10.2025
Welspun Living
Timeframe : Weekly
About
(1) Welspun Living Limited, part of the US$ 2.7 billion Welspun Group
(2) One of the largest home textile manufacturers in the world
Revenue Mix
(1) B2B: 70%
(2) Branded: 14%
(3) Advanced Textiles: 5%
(4) E-Commerce: 4%
(5) Flooring: 8%
Geographical Split
(1) Exports: 88%
(2) Domestic: 12%
Company has a global reach to more than 60 countries
Including the USA, Canada, the UK, etc
It is the largest exporter of home textile products from India
Debt Reduction
(1) Net debt decreased from Rs. 2,228 Cr to Rs. 1,832 Cr
(2) Plans to further reduce it to Rs. 1,000 Cr by FY27
Valuations
(1) Market Cap ₹ 11,385 Cr
(2) Stock P/E 21
(3) ROCE 14 %
(4) ROE 14 %
(5) OPM 11.5 %
(7) Promoter holding 65%
Regards,
Ankur Singh
Wave Analysis
Gold 1H – Liquidity Plays Between 3794 and 3918Gold on the 1H timeframe is fluctuating within a defined range after multiple ChoCH signals, with liquidity concentrated at both premium supply and discount demand. Current price action suggests engineered sweeps remain likely: upside liquidity sits near 3918–3916, while downside support aligns with 3794–3796. This dual structure sets up both tactical sell and buy plays depending on liquidity grabs.
From the macro perspective, gold traders are balancing caution ahead of upcoming U.S. data releases with the backdrop of a resilient dollar and persistent geopolitical risks. These drivers reinforce intraday volatility, where engineered liquidity hunts at extremes provide clearer opportunities.
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📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL GOLD 3918–3916 (SL 3925): Premium supply sweep zone. Downside targets at 3896 → 3872 → 3853.
• 🟢 BUY GOLD SUPPORT 3794–3796 (SL 3788): Discount demand aligned with structural lows. Upside targets at 3819 → 3853 → 3872+.
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📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔻 Sell Setup – Liquidity Grab at 3918–3916
• Entry: 3918–3916
• Stop Loss: 3925
• Take Profits:
• TP1: 3896
• TP2: 3872
• TP3: 3853
🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Demand at 3794–3796
• Entry: 3794–3796
• Stop Loss: 3788
• Take Profits:
• TP1: 3819
• TP2: 3853
• TP3: 3872+
⸻
🔑 Strategy Note
Gold remains liquidity-driven and range-bound, with engineered sweeps expected at both premium highs and discount lows. Flexibility is crucial: fade rallies into the 3918 supply zone, while preparing to scale into longs if liquidity clears into the 3794 demand base.
XAUUSD H4 – WAITING FOR NFP, TRADING WITHIN PRICE CHANNEL
Hello trader 👋
Gold continues to hold within the H4 rising price channel, but buying momentum has clearly weakened after yesterday's sharp drop. The price reaction at the lower trendline indicates that selling pressure is not yet strong enough to break the structure, yet the market's hesitation reflects a wait-and-see attitude for the NFP data and a series of important US news tonight.
In the European session, the price might move slowly and frustratingly – typical for a Friday – before potentially exploding in the US session. Therefore, the sensible strategy now is short-term trading within the channel, adapting to each small wave on the M5–M15 timeframe.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 3,874 – 3,876 (Sell entry)
Near Support: 3,794 – 3,795 (Buy scalping zone)
Deep Support: 3,760 (Important Buy zone)
⚖️ Trading Scenarios
🔴 Short-term Sell Scenario:
Entry: 3,874 – 3,876
SL: 3,885
TP: Expecting break of lower trendline → 3,79x – 3,76x
🟢 Buy Scalping Scenario:
Entry: 3,794
SL: 3,785
TP: 3,820 → 3,835 → 3,855 → 3,876 → 3,890
🟢 Deep Buy Zone Scenario:
Entry: 3,760
SL: 3,750
TP: 3,782 → 3,795 → 3,810 → 3,825
📊 General Outlook
Main Trend: Gold remains in an upward channel, but buying strength is waning and the risk of a breakdown is present.
European Session: Slow fluctuations, prone to “whipsaw” → prioritise short-term scalping.
US Session: NFP news might create strong waves, breaking the price channel → traders need to closely monitor reactions around 3,794 and 3,760 to decide on the next buy or sell move.
📌 Conclusion: Before NFP, gold remains in an upward channel but technical factors suggest a possible correction. Sensible strategy: Short sell at 3,874–3,876, or buy around support 3,794 – 3,760 depending on price action. Manage capital tightly, as the US session will determine the next major direction.
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TATAINVEST 1 Hour View📈 Current Price Snapshot
Current Price: ₹11,122.00 (up ₹542.00, +5.12%)
Day’s Range: ₹10,366.00 – ₹11,847.00
52-Week High/Low: ₹10,950.00 – ₹5,145.15
Volume: 2,308,009 shares traded
Market Cap: ₹53,538 crore
🔍 1-Hour Time Frame Analysis
Recent intraday charts indicate a bullish breakout on the 1-hour time frame. The stock has surpassed key resistance levels, suggesting strong upward momentum. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages are showing positive signals, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
📰 Recent Developments
Stock Split Announcement: On September 22, 2025, Tata Investment Corporation announced its first-ever stock split in a 1:10 ratio, aiming to improve liquidity and make shares more accessible to a broader base of investors. This decision was made by the company’s board and coincided with the release of its financial results for the first quarter ending June 2025.
Share Price Surge: Following the stock split announcement, the company's share price rose by 11.7% during intraday trading on September 23, 2025, reaching a new 52-week high of ₹8,131.50 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).
📊 Technical Indicators (1-Hour Time Frame)
RSI: Currently above 70, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Moving Averages: Short-term averages are above long-term averages, confirming the uptrend.
Volume: Increased trading volume suggests strong investor interest and potential continuation of the upward movement.
✅ Conclusion
Tata Investment Corporation Ltd. is exhibiting strong bullish momentum on the 1-hour time frame, supported by positive technical indicators and recent developments. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels for potential entry or exit points.
MMTC 1 Hour View📈 1-Hour Timeframe Technical Overview
Trend: The stock is exhibiting a bullish trend on the 1-hour chart, characterized by higher highs and higher lows.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: ₹70.
Key Resistance: ₹75.
Support Levels:
Immediate Support: ₹65.
Key Support: ₹62.
Pivot Points:
Central Pivot: ₹64.84
Resistance (R1): ₹66.13
Support (S1): ₹63.55
🔧 Technical Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently neutral, indicating no overbought or oversold conditions.
Moving Averages:
50-period EMA: Trending upwards, supporting the bullish momentum.
200-period EMA: Also trending upwards, confirming the long-term bullish trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, suggesting bullish momentum.
Volume: Increasing volume on upward movements indicates strong buying interest.
📊 Chart Patterns
The 1-hour chart reveals a Cup and Handle pattern, a bullish continuation formation. A breakout above the handle's resistance could lead to a price move towards ₹75 and beyond.
✅ Summary
MMTC Ltd is showing bullish signals on the 1-hour chart, with key resistance at ₹70 and ₹75, and support at ₹65 and ₹62. Technical indicators confirm the upward momentum. A breakout above ₹70 could signal further bullish movement.
NETWEB 1 Hour ViewNETWEB is trading at ₹4,216.00, reflecting a 3.79% increase from the previous close.
📈 1-Hour Technical Analysis (as of 10:43 AM IST)
Based on intraday data, here are the key technical indicators for NETWEB on the 1-hour timeframe:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 81.37 — indicates the stock is in the overbought zone, suggesting potential for a short-term pullback.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): 395.90 — confirms a strong bullish momentum.
Average Directional Index (ADX): 60.55 — suggests a strong trend in the market.
Stochastic Oscillator: 89.93 — indicates the stock is in the overbought zone.
Super Trend: ₹3,386.37 — supports the current upward movement .
Williams %R: -4.50 — suggests the stock is in the overbought zone.
🔄 Support & Resistance Levels
According to pivot point analysis, the key support and resistance levels for NETWEB are:
Support Levels: ₹4,021.26 (S1), ₹4,088.63 (S2), ₹4,153.76 (S3).
Resistance Levels: ₹4,221.13 (R1), ₹4,286.26 (R2), ₹4,353.63 (R3).
The current price of ₹4,216.00 is near the R1 resistance level, indicating potential for a breakout if the price surpasses this level.
📊 Trend Analysis
The stock is exhibiting strong bullish indicators across multiple timeframes, including the 1-hour chart. The RSI, MACD, and ADX all suggest a continuation of the upward trend. However, the overbought conditions indicated by the RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, and Williams %R suggest that traders should be cautious of potential short-term pullbacks.
ICICIBANK 1 Hour View📊 1-Hour Timeframe: Key Levels
🔹 Support Levels
Immediate Support: ₹1,363.14
Key Support Zones: ₹1,352.93, ₹1,333.87
🔹 Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: ₹1,367.07
Key Resistance Zones: ₹1,385.23, ₹1,398.47
These levels are derived from standard pivot point calculations and are commonly used by traders to identify potential reversal points within the trading day.
📈 Technical Indicators (1-Hour Chart)
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 37.26 — indicates the stock is nearing oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a price rebound.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): -16.11 — a negative value, which may indicate bearish momentum.
Average Directional Index (ADX): 23.81 — suggests a weak trend, implying indecision in the market.
Stochastic Oscillator: 13.21 — indicates the stock is oversold, potentially signaling a reversal.
Supertrend Indicator: ₹1,398.34 — indicates a bearish trend.
These indicators collectively suggest a bearish short-term outlook, with potential for a reversal if support levels hold.
📊 Price Levels to Watch
Support Zone: ₹1,380–₹1,400
Resistance Zone: ₹1,426–₹1,430
Key Levels: ₹1,400–₹1,410 (strong support)
🔄 Summary
ICICI Bank Ltd. is currently trading near its support levels on the 1-hour chart. The RSI indicates potential oversold conditions, while other indicators suggest a weak bearish trend. Traders should monitor the key support and resistance levels mentioned above for potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.
Regulatory & Policy Developments1. Introduction to Regulatory and Policy Developments
At the core, regulation refers to rules and directives issued by governing bodies to control, manage, or guide the conduct of businesses, markets, and economic participants. Policy, on the other hand, represents a broader framework of principles, strategies, and guidelines that guide decision-making in government, financial institutions, and corporations.
Key Objectives of Regulations and Policies
Market Stability: Regulations prevent market volatility and systemic risk, ensuring investor confidence.
Consumer Protection: Policies safeguard consumers from fraudulent practices, misleading information, and financial exploitation.
Transparency and Accountability: Regulatory frameworks require disclosure of financial information, promoting trust in institutions.
Economic Growth and Innovation: Policies can stimulate sectors, attract investments, and encourage innovation through incentives or guidelines.
Risk Management: Regulations manage risks in banking, finance, and corporate sectors, reducing chances of crises.
Regulations and policies are intertwined, often evolving with changing economic environments, technological advancements, and societal needs. Their impact is felt across every segment of the economy, from financial markets and corporate governance to labor markets and international trade.
2. Historical Evolution of Regulatory and Policy Frameworks
Global Perspective
The evolution of regulations globally has been shaped by crises, technological advancements, and policy reforms. Key milestones include:
Early 20th Century: Following financial panics like the 1907 crisis in the U.S., regulatory mechanisms emerged to stabilize markets.
The Great Depression (1929): The collapse of stock markets led to the Securities Act of 1933 and Securities Exchange Act of 1934 in the United States, establishing the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission).
Post-War Era: Economic rebuilding prompted regulatory frameworks focusing on industrial development, labor rights, and social welfare.
Late 20th Century: Globalization and technological progress led to reforms in trade, banking, and securities markets.
Post-2008 Financial Crisis: The crisis highlighted risks in financial derivatives, complex banking products, and inadequate oversight, resulting in stringent reforms like Dodd-Frank Act (USA) and Basel III (Global Banking Standards).
Indian Regulatory History
India’s regulatory and policy framework has evolved gradually to balance growth and stability:
Pre-Independence: Limited formal regulations; trade largely unregulated with colonial economic policies.
Post-Independence Era (1947-1990): Emphasis on industrial licensing, import substitution, and financial control through entities like RBI, SEBI, and IRDAI.
Economic Liberalization (1991 Onwards): Liberalization, privatization, and globalization (LPG reforms) spurred regulatory modernization.
Recent Decades: Introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST), Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC, 2016), and fintech regulations reflects India’s adaptation to global standards.
3. Types of Regulatory and Policy Developments
Regulations and policies vary across sectors, targeting specific objectives. Broadly, they can be classified into the following categories:
a. Financial Market Regulations
Securities Regulations: Governing stock exchanges, mutual funds, IPOs, and listed companies.
Example: SEBI regulations for market intermediaries and investor protection.
Banking and Finance Regulations: Ensuring capital adequacy, liquidity, and prudent lending.
Example: RBI’s Basel III implementation for Indian banks.
Insurance and Pension Policies: Protecting policyholders and promoting long-term savings.
Example: IRDAI regulations for insurance products.
b. Corporate Governance Policies
Disclosure Requirements: Mandating periodic reporting of financial statements.
Board Composition and Ethical Standards: Ensuring accountability in corporate management.
Fraud Prevention Measures: Detecting and preventing insider trading and market manipulation.
c. Trade and Economic Policies
Industrial Policies: Encouraging investment and promoting priority sectors.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Regulations: Defining limits and approvals for international investments.
Export-Import Policies: Facilitating global trade and ensuring balance-of-payments stability.
d. Technological and Digital Regulations
Data Protection Policies: Protecting consumer privacy and personal information.
Example: Personal Data Protection Bill (India)
Fintech Regulations: Governing digital payments, cryptocurrencies, and blockchain adoption.
Cybersecurity Policies: Ensuring safe digital infrastructure in banking and corporate sectors.
e. Environmental and Sustainability Policies
Environmental Regulations: Reducing carbon emissions, pollution, and promoting clean technologies.
Sustainability Reporting: Mandating ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) disclosures by corporates.
Renewable Energy Incentives: Policies promoting green energy and sustainable investments.
4. Key Regulatory Developments Globally
a. United States
Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform (2010): Post-2008 financial crisis reform aimed at reducing systemic risk.
Sarbanes-Oxley Act (2002): Strengthened corporate governance and transparency after corporate scandals (Enron, WorldCom).
Federal Reserve Policies: Monetary regulations influencing liquidity, interest rates, and bank supervision.
b. European Union
MiFID II (2018): Financial market transparency, investor protection, and trading standards.
GDPR (2018): Comprehensive data protection and privacy regulations.
EU Sustainable Finance Regulations: ESG disclosures, green finance taxonomy, and risk assessments.
c. Asia-Pacific
China’s Financial Market Reforms: Liberalization of stock exchanges, fintech regulations, and digital currency issuance.
Japan’s Corporate Governance Code (2015): Focused on board independence, shareholder rights, and sustainable growth.
5. Key Regulatory Developments in India
a. Financial Market Reforms
SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) Regulations
IPO norms, insider trading prevention, mutual fund oversight.
Emphasis on investor protection and market integrity.
RBI Banking Reforms
Basel III norms, asset quality review, and digital banking initiatives.
Insurance Sector
IRDAI’s solvency regulations and customer grievance redressal frameworks.
b. Corporate Governance and Compliance
Companies Act 2013
Mandates board independence, audit committees, CSR activities, and disclosure norms.
Insider Trading Regulations
Strengthened to deter market manipulation and unethical practices.
c. Trade and Economic Policies
FDI Policy Reforms
Liberalized norms across sectors, including defense, telecom, and retail.
GST Implementation (2017)
Unified indirect tax system improving ease of doing business.
Make in India Initiative
Policy to boost domestic manufacturing and attract global investors.
d. Technology and Digital Regulations
Fintech and Digital Payments
NPCI (National Payments Corporation of India) overseeing UPI, digital wallets, and payments security.
Cryptocurrency Policy
RBI and government regulations balancing innovation with risk containment.
Data Privacy and Protection
Draft bills addressing consumer data security and corporate responsibilities.
e. Environmental and ESG Policies
Mandatory CSR Reporting
Companies above a threshold must allocate profits for social development.
Green Finance Policies
Encouraging investment in renewable energy, clean technology, and sustainable infrastructure.
Carbon Emission Norms
Industries must comply with emission limits, promoting low-carbon technologies.
6. Impact of Regulatory and Policy Developments
a. Positive Impacts
Market Confidence and Stability
Strong regulations reduce uncertainty, attracting both domestic and foreign investments.
Consumer Protection
Policies prevent exploitation, fraud, and unfair practices.
Promoting Innovation
Incentives and supportive policies encourage startups, fintech, and green technology.
Global Integration
Alignment with global standards boosts international trade and capital inflows.
b. Challenges and Limitations
Regulatory Overreach
Excessive compliance costs can stifle small businesses.
Lag Between Policy and Implementation
Enforcement gaps often reduce effectiveness.
Technological Disruption
Rapid fintech, AI, and blockchain developments require constant regulatory adaptation.
Global Uncertainties
Trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and international regulatory divergence can impact domestic policies.
Conclusion
Regulatory and policy developments are essential pillars of modern economies. They ensure market stability, protect consumers, foster innovation, and integrate domestic economies with the global framework. The landscape of regulations is continuously evolving, influenced by crises, technological advancements, and societal needs. Countries like India are modernizing their regulatory architecture to promote transparency, efficiency, and sustainability while balancing growth and innovation.
Looking forward, the key to effective regulation lies in adaptability, technology integration, and a balance between control and freedom. Policymakers, regulators, businesses, and investors must collaborate to ensure a robust framework that fosters economic growth, protects stakeholders, and prepares the economy for future challenges. Regulatory and policy development is not just a compliance exercise—it is a strategic enabler for sustainable and inclusive economic progress.
Indian Stock Market Trends1. Introduction: Understanding the Indian Stock Market
The Indian stock market is one of the fastest-growing and most dynamic financial markets globally. Comprising the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) as its two primary platforms, it serves as the barometer of India’s economic health. Over the last three decades, India has witnessed transformative changes in its stock market driven by economic liberalization, technological advancements, regulatory reforms, and global market integration.
The market plays a critical role in mobilizing domestic savings, enabling companies to raise capital, and providing investors with opportunities to grow wealth. Its growth is intrinsically linked to economic cycles, policy decisions, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment. Over time, the Indian stock market has evolved from a predominantly retail and family-controlled ownership pattern to a sophisticated ecosystem influenced by domestic institutional investors (DIIs), foreign institutional investors (FIIs), and algorithmic trading.
2. Historical Context: How the Market Evolved
The Indian stock market’s evolution can be divided into four phases:
2.1 Pre-Liberalization Era (Before 1991)
Before India’s economic liberalization, the stock market was relatively small and dominated by a few family-owned business groups. Market participation was limited, transparency was low, and regulatory frameworks were underdeveloped. Price manipulation and insider trading were common, and trading volumes were minimal.
2.2 Post-Liberalization Boom (1991–2000)
With the 1991 economic reforms, India opened up to foreign investments, reduced government controls, and encouraged private enterprise. The introduction of the NSE in 1992 brought transparency, electronic trading, and nationwide access. The market became more structured, attracting foreign capital and retail investors. The late 1990s saw the IT boom, which contributed to significant stock market growth, with indices such as the BSE Sensex gaining widespread attention.
2.3 Consolidation and Global Integration (2000–2010)
During this period, the Indian market became more integrated with global financial markets. The rise of derivative products, mutual funds, and increased institutional participation transformed the market into a more sophisticated environment. The 2008 global financial crisis impacted Indian equities, but the market’s resilience was evident in its recovery, highlighting growing domestic investor confidence.
2.4 Technological Transformation and Retail Participation (2010–Present)
The proliferation of digital trading platforms, discount brokers, and mobile apps has democratized market access, enabling retail investors to play a significant role. The introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), algorithmic trading, and structured products has further diversified trading strategies. India’s equity market now reflects a mix of retail exuberance, institutional strategy, and global capital flows.
3. Current Trends in the Indian Stock Market
3.1 Index Performance and Volatility
The two primary indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, provide an overview of market performance:
Sensex, consisting of 30 of the largest and most actively traded stocks on the BSE, represents the performance of established blue-chip companies.
Nifty 50 tracks 50 major companies across 13 sectors on the NSE, offering a broader market perspective.
Trends Observed:
Bullish Momentum: Over the last decade, Indian markets have seen sustained growth due to economic reforms, infrastructure expansion, and corporate earnings growth.
Volatility Episodes: Global events like the COVID-19 pandemic, US Federal Reserve rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions caused sharp but often temporary volatility.
Sectoral Rotation: There is frequent rotation between sectors like IT, FMCG, banking, and energy, reflecting both domestic growth patterns and global demand cycles.
3.2 Sectoral Performance
Sectoral trends often drive broader market movements. Key sectors include:
Information Technology (IT):
IT companies like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro benefit from global digital transformation.
Revenue is influenced by foreign exchange fluctuations, client budgets, and global tech adoption.
Banking and Financial Services:
The BFSI sector contributes heavily to Sensex and Nifty 50 indices.
Trends are driven by credit growth, NPAs, policy reforms, and RBI rate decisions.
Energy and Commodities:
Reliance, ONGC, and Coal India drive energy sector performance.
Crude oil price movements and global commodity cycles directly impact profitability and stock prices.
Consumer Goods and FMCG:
Companies like Hindustan Unilever and Nestle thrive on domestic consumption patterns.
Market performance often reflects rural demand, inflation, and discretionary spending trends.
Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare:
Companies such as Sun Pharma and Dr. Reddy’s benefit from global demand, patent expirations, and regulatory approvals.
Healthcare reforms and medical tourism trends also impact sector valuations.
Emerging Sectors:
Electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy, and fintech are gaining prominence in stock market valuations.
Investors are increasingly participating in IPOs of tech-driven start-ups, especially under the SME and unicorn segment.
3.3 IPO and FII Trends
Initial Public Offerings (IPOs):
The Indian IPO market has been vibrant, particularly in technology, fintech, and consumer sectors.
Retail participation is growing, fueled by online subscription platforms and easier access.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs):
FIIs influence market liquidity, especially in large-cap stocks.
Capital inflows from FIIs are often cyclical and react to global interest rates, US market trends, and geopolitical developments.
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs):
Mutual funds, insurance companies, and pension funds are increasingly dominant players.
DIIs often act as stabilizers during FII outflows.
3.4 Retail Participation and Behavioral Trends
Retail investors have become a key driver of market liquidity:
Digital Trading Platforms: Zerodha, Groww, Upstox, and others have made investing easy and low-cost.
Trend-Following Behavior: Retail investors often follow market sentiment, resulting in high volatility during short-term rallies.
SIP Investments: Systematic Investment Plans in mutual funds have attracted long-term domestic capital to equity markets.
Behavioral finance studies indicate that retail participation can both amplify bullish trends during optimism and exacerbate corrections during fear-driven sell-offs.
3.5 Regulatory and Policy Impacts
The Indian stock market’s trends are strongly influenced by regulatory interventions:
SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India):
Enforces transparency, prevents insider trading, and regulates corporate governance.
Initiatives like T+1 settlement, margin requirements, and circuit breakers have enhanced market stability.
RBI Policies:
Interest rate decisions impact bank stocks, debt yields, and overall market sentiment.
Government Initiatives:
Policies like Make in India, Digital India, and infrastructure development have sectoral and index-level impacts.
Taxation reforms, including GST implementation and dividend taxation changes, influence market psychology.
4. Market Drivers and Influencers
Several internal and external factors shape Indian stock market trends:
4.1 Macroeconomic Indicators
GDP growth, inflation rates, industrial production, and employment data directly affect investor sentiment.
India’s strong demographic dividend and rising middle class support long-term equity consumption trends.
4.2 Corporate Earnings
Earnings growth in sectors like IT, banking, FMCG, and energy drives stock valuations.
Companies with robust fundamentals attract long-term investment despite short-term volatility.
4.3 Global Market Integration
India’s market is increasingly influenced by US market trends, oil prices, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical risks.
Events such as US Fed rate hikes or China’s economic policies have immediate ripple effects on capital inflows.
4.4 Technological Advancement
Algorithmic and high-frequency trading now contributes significantly to daily volumes.
Fintech innovation is democratizing access to equities, ETFs, and derivatives, increasing retail participation.
5. Long-term Trends and Market Outlook
5.1 Structural Growth
India’s stock market is expected to benefit from long-term structural growth factors:
Urbanization and rising disposable incomes.
Expansion of the digital economy.
Rising financial literacy leading to higher market participation.
5.2 Sectoral Shift
Technology, EVs, renewable energy, healthcare, and consumer goods are expected to dominate market growth.
Traditional sectors like oil & gas, steel, and banking will continue to remain core drivers but may face cyclicality.
5.3 ESG Investing
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing is gaining traction among institutional and retail investors.
Companies with strong ESG credentials are increasingly receiving premium valuations.
5.4 Volatility and Risk Management
The market remains susceptible to global shocks, policy changes, and liquidity fluctuations.
Investors are adopting diversified portfolios, derivative hedging, and algorithmic strategies to manage risk.
6. Challenges and Risks
While the Indian stock market presents immense opportunities, it faces challenges:
Market Volatility: Triggered by global economic shocks or domestic policy changes.
Corporate Governance Issues: Despite SEBI oversight, lapses can lead to temporary erosion of investor confidence.
Liquidity Concerns: Small-cap stocks often experience lower liquidity, creating price inefficiencies.
Behavioral Biases: Retail investors’ herd mentality can cause speculative bubbles.
7. Conclusion
The Indian stock market is a reflection of the country’s economic aspirations, structural transformation, and global integration. From a small, opaque market in the 1980s to a technologically advanced, globally linked marketplace today, the evolution has been remarkable. The current trends—dominated by technology-driven trading, sectoral rotations, rising retail participation, and regulatory enhancements—point towards a robust future trajectory.
Investors must remain vigilant of macroeconomic shifts, policy interventions, and global cues while capitalizing on India’s long-term growth story. Strategic investment, risk management, and sectoral diversification will be key to navigating the opportunities and challenges in India’s evolving equity landscape.
Domestic Equity Market TrendsIntroduction
The domestic equity market, often considered the barometer of a nation’s economic health, has witnessed dynamic shifts over the years. Characterized by fluctuations in stock prices, trading volumes, investor sentiment, and corporate performance, these markets reflect both macroeconomic trends and microeconomic realities. Understanding domestic equity market trends is essential not only for investors and traders but also for policymakers, financial analysts, and the broader business community.
Equity markets are influenced by a variety of factors including economic policies, global financial conditions, corporate earnings, technological advancements, and investor behavior. Domestic markets serve as platforms for capital formation, wealth creation, and efficient allocation of resources, contributing significantly to overall economic development.
This detailed analysis explores the evolution of domestic equity markets, identifies prevailing trends, examines sectoral movements, evaluates regulatory and policy impacts, and assesses investor behavior in shaping market trajectories.
1. Evolution of Domestic Equity Markets
1.1 Early Development
Domestic equity markets have evolved over decades, starting from informal trading practices to highly regulated, technologically advanced platforms. In the early stages, equity trading was largely manual, with transactions recorded on paper and executed in physical trading floors. Investor participation was limited to a select group of institutional and high-net-worth investors, and the market was relatively illiquid.
1.2 Modernization and Technological Integration
The introduction of electronic trading platforms revolutionized domestic equity markets. Real-time order matching, automated clearing, and electronic settlement have increased transparency, reduced transaction costs, and expanded participation. Technology has also enabled retail investors to access the market through online brokerage platforms and mobile trading applications, democratizing market participation.
1.3 Regulatory Reforms
Over the years, regulatory reforms have strengthened market integrity. Key initiatives include:
Implementation of investor protection mechanisms.
Stringent disclosure requirements for listed companies.
Risk management frameworks to safeguard against market manipulation.
Corporate governance reforms promoting transparency and accountability.
These measures have enhanced investor confidence and encouraged broader participation in the equity markets.
2. Key Drivers of Domestic Equity Market Trends
Domestic equity markets are influenced by a combination of macroeconomic, microeconomic, and geopolitical factors. Understanding these drivers is crucial for analyzing market behavior.
2.1 Economic Indicators
Economic performance, measured through GDP growth, inflation, employment rates, and industrial production, directly affects equity market trends. For instance, robust economic growth typically boosts corporate earnings, which in turn drives stock prices higher. Conversely, economic slowdowns or recessions often lead to market corrections.
2.2 Corporate Earnings
Corporate profitability is a primary determinant of stock prices. Companies reporting strong earnings growth attract investor interest, driving demand and prices up. Conversely, declining earnings or profit warnings can trigger sell-offs. Sectoral earnings also play a role, as some industries outperform others during different economic cycles.
2.3 Monetary Policy
Central banks influence equity markets through interest rate adjustments and liquidity management. Lower interest rates make equity investments more attractive relative to fixed-income securities, often boosting market performance. Conversely, rising rates can dampen equity valuations.
2.4 Fiscal Policy
Government spending, taxation, and policy measures impact corporate profitability and investor sentiment. Expansionary fiscal policies can stimulate growth and market optimism, while contractionary measures may lead to caution or sell-offs.
2.5 Global Market Conditions
Domestic markets are not isolated from global trends. Foreign institutional investments, geopolitical tensions, global commodity prices, and currency fluctuations influence domestic equity performance. Integration with global markets means domestic indices often mirror global sentiments to some extent.
3. Current Domestic Equity Market Trends
3.1 Market Valuation Trends
Over the past few years, domestic equity markets have experienced significant valuation shifts. Key observations include:
Bullish Phases: Periods of strong economic growth, low-interest rates, and corporate earnings growth have fueled bullish markets.
Correction Phases: Market corrections have occurred due to economic slowdowns, geopolitical uncertainties, or rising interest rates.
Sector Rotation: Investors often shift funds between sectors depending on prevailing macroeconomic conditions, leading to sector-specific performance trends.
3.2 Sectoral Trends
Equity markets often exhibit sectoral trends, influenced by industry-specific developments and investor preferences. Current sectoral trends include:
Technology & IT Services: Continues to benefit from digital transformation and global outsourcing demands.
Banking & Financial Services: Driven by credit growth, asset quality improvements, and fintech adoption.
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare: Gaining attention due to rising health awareness and government initiatives.
Consumer Goods & Retail: Sensitive to consumption patterns, inflation, and changing consumer preferences.
Energy & Infrastructure: Influenced by commodity prices, government spending, and renewable energy transitions.
3.3 Retail Participation
Retail investors have increasingly contributed to domestic equity market volumes. The rise of mobile trading apps, online brokerage platforms, and investment awareness campaigns has led to higher retail engagement, which can amplify market trends during bullish or bearish phases.
3.4 Institutional Investment Patterns
Domestic and foreign institutional investors play a significant role in shaping market trends. Their investment decisions, often based on research, macroeconomic analysis, and portfolio strategies, can create momentum in specific sectors or indices.
4. Technological and Trading Innovations
4.1 Algorithmic and High-Frequency Trading
The introduction of algorithmic and high-frequency trading has transformed equity market dynamics. These technologies execute trades at high speeds, exploiting short-term market inefficiencies. While they increase liquidity, they also contribute to heightened volatility during market stress.
4.2 Data Analytics and AI
Advanced data analytics and artificial intelligence are increasingly used by traders and analysts to predict market trends, assess risk, and optimize portfolios. Machine learning models analyze historical and real-time data to identify trading opportunities.
4.3 Mobile and Online Trading Platforms
The proliferation of mobile trading platforms has empowered retail investors to participate in real-time trading. Features such as instant order execution, portfolio tracking, and market alerts have enhanced retail engagement.
5. Market Volatility and Risk Factors
Domestic equity markets are inherently volatile, influenced by multiple risk factors:
Macroeconomic Shocks: Sudden changes in interest rates, inflation, or GDP growth can trigger market swings.
Corporate Performance Risks: Poor earnings, mismanagement, or governance issues impact stock prices.
Global Uncertainties: Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, or global financial crises can affect domestic markets.
Liquidity Risks: Market liquidity can fluctuate, especially in mid-cap and small-cap stocks, amplifying price movements.
Behavioral Factors: Investor sentiment, herd behavior, and market psychology play critical roles in short-term volatility.
6. Challenges in Domestic Equity Markets
Despite modernization and growth, domestic equity markets face several challenges:
Market Volatility: High volatility can discourage long-term investment.
Corporate Governance Issues: Instances of fraud or mismanagement can erode investor trust.
Market Inequality: Small and mid-cap companies may face liquidity constraints compared to large-cap firms.
Information Asymmetry: Retail investors often lack access to sophisticated research and analysis tools.
Regulatory Compliance: Frequent changes in rules may create compliance challenges for market participants.
7. Opportunities for Investors
Domestic equity markets offer diverse opportunities for investors:
Long-term Wealth Creation: Equity markets remain one of the most effective avenues for long-term capital appreciation.
Sectoral Diversification: Investors can exploit sectoral trends and thematic opportunities.
Derivative Instruments: Futures and options allow hedging, speculation, and risk management.
IPO Participation: Investing in new listings can provide early-stage growth opportunities.
Technology-driven Investments: Online platforms and AI-driven advisory services enhance decision-making.
8.Conclusion
Domestic equity markets are complex, dynamic, and multifaceted, reflecting a nation’s economic health and investor sentiment. Over the years, technological innovation, regulatory reforms, and increased retail participation have enhanced market efficiency and accessibility. Trends such as sectoral shifts, ESG investing, and global integration are shaping the future of domestic markets.
Investors, regulators, and corporate entities must navigate this landscape with strategic foresight, continuous learning, and risk awareness. By understanding macroeconomic drivers, corporate performance patterns, and behavioral influences, stakeholders can leverage opportunities and mitigate challenges in domestic equity markets.
The continued evolution of domestic equity markets presents both opportunities and responsibilities. A well-informed approach, combined with regulatory oversight and technological adoption, ensures that equity markets remain robust, transparent, and a critical engine for economic growth.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 10/03/2025📊
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🔹 Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum is currently declining → the corrective process is likely to continue until D1 enters the oversold zone and reverses.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is preparing to turn upward → today we may see a bullish move.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is heading into the oversold zone → the current H1 decline is weakening, which may lead to a bullish move aligned with H4. This potential rally could last for about 4–5 H4 candles.
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🔹 Wave Structure
• D1: Price is still within the wave 5 target zone without a clear breakout. However, D1 momentum suggests that a corrective decline may continue.
• H4: An ABC structure has formed → the current rebound may be:
o The start of a new uptrend.
o Or part of a more complex correction.
• H1: Showing a rebound, which could be:
o Wave 1 of a new uptrend.
o Or wave A of a corrective 3-wave ABC move.
⏩ In either case, the current decline can be identified as wave 2 (purple) or wave B (blue).
• Downside targets:
o Zone 1: 3842
o Zone 2: 3830
Afterward, the market is expected to rise:
• If it is wave C → target equals wave A at 3885 (after 3842 support) or 3874 (after 3830 support).
• If it is wave 3 (purple) → minimum target = 1.618 of wave 1 (purple).
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🔹 Trading Plan
Scenario 1
• Buy Zone: 3843 – 3841
• SL: 3833
• TP1: 3862
• TP2: 3874
• TP3: 3885
Scenario 2
• Buy Zone: 3831 – 3829
• SL: 3818
• TP1: 3862
• TP2: 3874
• TP3: 3885
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👉 Main strategy: Look for buy entries around 3842 or 3830 support zones, targeting 3874 – 3885.
ICICI Bank – Relief Rally into ResistanceAfter topping at ₹1500 , ICICI Bank has corrected over 10% into late September, carving out a clear W–X–Y corrective structure. The recent bounce from oversold RSI levels was expected, but price is now heading straight into the crucial resistance band near ₹1384 .
A bearish reaction here would validate the ongoing correction, opening the path toward the next support / Wave (c) target at ~₹1317 .
However, any sustained move above ₹1432.80 would invalidate the bearish view and suggest a different structure in play.
Overall, the setup currently favors caution on rallies, with focus on whether sellers defend the resistance band.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NBCC (India) – Wave 3 Setup Backed by Strong Project PipelineAfter completing a textbook 5-wave advance into 130.70 , where Wave 5 aligned exactly with the 2.618 extension of Wave 1 projected from Wave 4, NBCC corrected into 98. That low now marks a clean green Wave 2.
The recent bounce to 117.20 formed Wave 1 of a higher-degree Wave 3.
Price has retraced into the 104–105 zone (0.618 Fib) with visible volume expansion, suggesting accumulation.
Invalidation/SL sits at 98 , making risk well-defined.
Breakout above 117.20 opens the path toward 130.70+ and potentially much higher, in line with the 2.618 Fib target around 130.65.
Fundamentals in Brief
Market cap: ₹295.9B
P/E ratio: ~50.8, indicating premium valuation but supported by steady order book growth.
Revenue (FY24): ~₹115.9B, with Project Management Consultancy (PMC) as the major contributor.
Debt: Effectively zero – NBCC runs a net cash balance sheet, giving it flexibility.
Dividend yield (TTM): ~0.8% – small, but consistent payouts.
Margins: Net margin steady around 5–6%.
NBCC’s fundamentals support its technical setup: low leverage, steady revenues, and government backing in project management give confidence that the bullish Elliott Wave count has room to play out.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
Silver at a crucial historical levelSilver reached the USD 48250+ level. It reached this level in 1980 and 2011. Both times it has experienced a sharp reversal.
According to the long-term Elliott wave, I believe it is the end of the 3rd impulsive wave.
Note: Not a buy/sell recommendation. For educational and paper trading purposes only.
NIFTY : Trading levels and plan for 03-Oct-2025NIFTY TRADING PLAN – 03-Oct-2025
Nifty closed at 24,853.40, recovering from recent declines and now trading near crucial resistance and support zones. Tomorrow’s movement will largely depend on whether the index can break above 24,889 – 24,923 (Opening Resistance Zone) or hold below 24,726 – 24,764 (Opening Support Zone).
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Opening Resistance Zone: 24,889 – 24,923
Last Intraday Resistance: 25,015
Opening Support Zone: 24,726 – 24,764
Last Intraday Support: 24,647
🚀 Scenario 1: Gap Up Opening (100+ points)
If Nifty opens near or above 24,950 – 25,000, it will directly challenge the Last Intraday Resistance (25,015) .
A sustained move above 25,015 could extend momentum towards 25,100+ levels, signaling strength.
However, if prices face rejection near 25,015, expect profit booking with pullback towards 24,900 – 24,850.
Traders should avoid chasing at higher openings and instead wait for confirmation of sustained breakout before entering fresh longs.
👉 Educational Note: Gap-up openings near resistance zones often trap impatient buyers. It is safer to wait for retests before committing capital.
⚖️ Scenario 2: Flat Opening (within ±100 points)
A flat start near 24,800 – 24,850 will keep Nifty between its Opening Resistance Zone (24,889 – 24,923) and Opening Support Zone (24,726 – 24,764) .
A decisive breakout above 24,923 may fuel momentum towards 25,015, with scope for extension to 25,100.
On the other hand, a breakdown below 24,726 could drag the index back to 24,647.
Expect sideways choppiness unless one side breaks decisively with volume confirmation.
👉 Educational Note: Flat openings indicate market indecision. Traders should focus on range breakout opportunities rather than anticipating moves.
📉 Scenario 3: Gap Down Opening (100+ points)
If Nifty opens near 24,700 – 24,650, it will test the Opening Support Zone (24,726 – 24,764) and may even challenge the Last Intraday Support (24,647) .
Breakdown below 24,647 could invite further weakness towards 24,550 – 24,500.
However, if the support zone holds, a rebound towards 24,800 – 24,850 is possible, triggering short covering.
Traders should wait for the first 15–30 mins to confirm whether supports sustain before taking trades.
👉 Educational Note: Gap-downs create panic. Disciplined traders wait for either breakdown confirmation or a sharp recovery signal to trade with better risk-reward.
🛡️ Risk Management Tips for Options Traders
⏳ Avoid trading aggressively in the first 15–30 minutes after opening.
🛑 Always keep stop losses based on 15-min/hourly candle close.
🎯 Use option spreads (Bull Call / Bear Put) to minimize premium decay risk.
📉 Maintain a minimum 1:2 Risk-Reward ratio on every trade.
💰 Book partial profits at key levels to protect gains.
🧘 Never risk more than 2–3% of total capital on a single trade.
📌 Summary & Conclusion
Bullish Bias: Above 24,923, targets 25,015 → 25,100.
Neutral Zone: Between 24,726 – 24,923, expect sideways consolidation.
Bearish Bias: Below 24,647, weakness towards 24,550 – 24,500 possible.
📊 Nifty is at a crucial juncture. Breakout above resistance can fuel bullish momentum, while breakdown below support may trigger renewed selling pressure. Traders should remain patient, disciplined, and trade only on confirmation of breakout/breakdown with volume.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. Please do your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
BANKNIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 03-Oct-2025BANK NIFTY TRADING PLAN – 03-Oct-2025
Bank Nifty closed at 55,386.65, recovering sharply after recent weakness. For tomorrow, key levels are defined between 55,406 (Opening Support/Resistance) and 55,560 (Last Intraday Resistance). The broader supports remain at 55,031 – 55,112 and 54,775.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Opening S/R: 55,406
Last Intraday Resistance: 55,560
Major Resistances Ahead: 55,835 → 56,062
Opening Support Zone: 55,031 – 55,112
Last Intraday Support: 54,775
🚀 Scenario 1: Gap Up Opening (200+ points)
If Bank Nifty opens above 55,600, it will directly test the Last Intraday Resistance .
A clean breakout above 55,560 – 55,600 may fuel momentum towards 55,835, and if sustained, even 56,062.
However, if prices fail to sustain above 55,560, expect intraday profit booking with pullback towards 55,400 – 55,200.
Traders must confirm the breakout with strong volumes before entering fresh longs.
👉 Educational Note: Gap-up openings near resistance often trap buyers. A patient approach is essential—wait for confirmation instead of chasing.
⚖️ Scenario 2: Flat Opening (within ±200 points)
A flat start near 55,300 – 55,400 will keep the index balanced between support and resistance zones.
Upside momentum will trigger only if 55,560 is crossed decisively, targeting 55,835 → 56,062.
On the downside, if 55,031 – 55,112 fails to hold, the index may retest 54,775.
Expect choppy price action until one side (above 55,560 or below 55,031) gives a decisive breakout.
👉 Educational Note: Flat openings usually reflect indecision. Traders should focus on breakouts from the intraday range to avoid false signals.
📉 Scenario 3: Gap Down Opening (200+ points)
If Bank Nifty opens near 55,100 – 55,000, it will test the Opening Support Zone (55,031 – 55,112) .
Breakdown below this zone can drag the index towards the Last Intraday Support at 54,775 .
If 54,775 also fails, deeper correction towards 54,500 levels cannot be ruled out.
However, strong rebound from support zones may lead to sharp short covering back towards 55,300 – 55,400.
👉 Educational Note: Gap-downs often create panic in the first 30 minutes. Smart traders wait for retests of support to avoid being trapped in false breakdowns.
🛡️ Risk Management Tips for Options Traders
⏳ Avoid aggressive positions in the first 15–30 minutes after opening.
🛑 Always keep stop losses based on candle close (15-min/hourly).
🎯 Use spreads (Bull Call / Bear Put) to reduce premium risk.
⚖️ Maintain a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2 .
💰 Partial profit booking at key levels helps secure gains.
🧘 Stick to position sizing; never risk more than 2–3% of capital on a single trade.
📌 Summary & Conclusion
Bullish Bias: Above 55,560, targets 55,835 → 56,062.
Neutral Zone: Between 55,031 – 55,560, expect sideways action.
Bearish Bias: Below 55,031, expect weakness towards 54,775 → 54,500.
📊 Bank Nifty is entering a crucial zone where breakout above 55,560 may fuel strong upside momentum, while breakdown below 55,031 may bring back selling pressure. Traders should wait for confirmation and trade with discipline.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This trading plan is for educational purposes only. I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. Please do your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
“Nifty 50 Intraday Key Levels | Buy & Sell Zones” 3rd Oct 2025“Want to learn more? Like this post and follow me!”
25,073 → Above 10m closing Shot Cover Level
25,070 → Below 10m hold PE By Safe Zone
24,988 → Above 10m hold CE By Entry Level
24,980 → Below 10m hold PE By Risky Zone
24,888 → Above 10m hold Positive Trade View
24,790 → Above Opening S1 hold CE / Below Opening R1 hold PE
24,690 → Above 10m hold CE By Level / Below 10m hold PE By Level
24,590 → Above 10m hold CE By Safe Zone
24,580 → Below 10m hold Unwinding Level
LiamTrading – INTRADAY TRADING SCENARIO
When we look at the global financial landscape, an interesting picture emerges:
Equities – All Time High (ATH)
Housing Prices – ATH
Bitcoin – ATH
Gold – ATH
Money Supply – ATH
National Debt – ATH
CPI Inflation – averaging 4% per year since 2020, double the Fed’s “target”
Federal Reserve – continuing rate cuts this month
Clearly, easy money combined with inflationary pressure is a powerful driver pushing gold to new historical levels. This makes buying with the trend more reasonable than ever.
📊 Technical Analysis – H1 Chart
Gold is moving within a well-defined upward channel.
Volume Profile highlights the POC around 3840–3850, a key zone to watch for scalping buys.
The VAL coincides with the rising trendline near 3820–3822, offering strong confluence for medium-term buys.
If price breaks above 3895 to confirm a new ATH, trend-following buys remain the priority.
Key resistance: 3913–3915, suitable for short-term scalping sells.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
Buy scalping: 3845 | SL 3839 | TP 3856 – 3870
Buy zone (main): 3820 – 3822 | SL 3816 | TP 3832 – 3845 – 3860 – 3875 – 3890
Sell scalping: 3915 – 3913 | SL 3920 | TP 3900 – 3885 – 3872 – 3860
Buy breakout: If price breaks ATH 3895 and confirms, continue buying with the trend → Open targets towards 3915+
📌 Conclusion
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, both fundamentally and technically. Short-term pullbacks are simply opportunities to add to buy positions. However, traders should watch the immediate resistance zones to optimise entries.
👉 This is my personal outlook on XAUUSD, not financial advice.
Follow me to stay updated with the latest daily gold scenarios 🔥
Wave Pattern Identified This is an ideal pattern found after a Breif Bull Run in the Market
These type of patterns repeat themself on all time factors
This cycle is Weekly Price & Time cycle
I have left side explained how the pattern of 3 Stroke will look like in Text Book
and on real time You can witness one movement of 3 stroke pattern is complete
Expect an Pull back move before heading for final Retest of Primary Trend on weekly time frame
This is education content
Good luck
Nifty 50 – Wave 2 Correction and the Confluence ZoneDisclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
After bottoming at 21,743.65 in March 2025, Nifty launched a strong impulsive rally that topped at 25,669.35, marking Wave 1 of a new higher-degree advance.
Since then, price has been moving inside a downward-sloping channel , forming what appears to be a Wave 2 correction.
The subdivisions so far suggest a W–X–Y structure :
Wave W ended at 24,337.50.
Wave X topped at 25,448.95.
Wave Y is now unfolding, with (a) in place, (b) potentially in progress, and (c) likely still pending.
To assess possible completion zones, Fibonacci retracements of Wave 1 offer key checkpoints:
0.382 retracement at ~24,160, aligning with the channel base.
0.5 retracement at ~23,699, a deeper but still acceptable Wave 2 target.
This channel + fib confluence provides a meaningful area where Wave 2 could terminate, setting the stage for the next bullish leg — Wave 3.
Key Levels:
Resistance : 25,450 – 25,670 (breakout here invalidates the immediate Wave 2 scenario).
Support : 24,160 (0.382 fib and channel base).
Deeper support : 23,700 (0.5 fib).
Alternate scenario: If price continues sideways without decisive weakness, the correction may evolve into a triangle for Wave 2 instead of a W–X–Y.
Takeaway: As long as price respects the channel and fib zones, Wave 2 remains corrective in nature. A sustained break higher would open the path for Wave 3 — the next impulsive advance.