XAUUSD (H4) – Weekly Outlook (Dec 22–26)Buy the dip inside the channel, watch for a short-term correction after Wave 5
Strategy summary for next week
On the H4 chart, gold is still trading inside a mid-term rising channel. However, the wave structure suggests Wave 5 is likely finished, so next week I’m focusing on two main ideas:
Mid-term BUY bias, but only if price pulls back to a better liquidity area.
Short-term SELL correction, triggered only with confirmation (break below 4309) on the lower timeframe.
1) Technical view: Uptrend channel holds, but a correction is likely
Price is currently in the upper half of the channel → not an ideal spot to chase buys.
The chart highlights two key liquidity areas:
Liquidity Sell Zone near 4433 (upside target, only valid if price builds a clean path higher).
Strong Liquidity around 4254 (the area where I want to reload mid-term buys).
Meaning: The channel is still the main framework, but if Wave 5 has finished, a pullback/correction is normal before the next directional leg.
2) Mid-term plan (priority): BUY at channel liquidity
✅ Buy zone: 4250 – 4255
SL: 4240
Expectation: A rebound back toward the channel’s midline, and if momentum returns, continuation toward 4433.
Logic: This is the “better price” area aligned with the channel structure + key liquidity. Risk-reward is far cleaner than buying at the highs.
3) Short-term plan: SELL the correction only after confirmation
Because Wave 5 looks completed, a corrective sell is valid — but I only want to sell after the market confirms on the lower timeframe:
✅ Bearish confirmation: break below 4309
After the break, prefer a sell on retest (no chasing).
A realistic correction target is a move back toward the 425x liquidity zone.
Note: This is a short-term correction trade and doesn’t conflict with the mid-term buy bias.
4) Fundamentals next week: Holiday liquidity = more sweeps
Dec 22–26 includes multiple European holidays, which often means thin liquidity: price may not trend hard, but it can still wick and sweep stops.
Geopolitical risk remains elevated: Israeli officials plan to brief Trump on potential new strikes on Iran — this can trigger sudden safe-haven flows into gold.
Action: Trade smaller, trade cleaner, and avoid getting trapped in abnormal volatility.
5) Execution checklist
Mid-term BUY: wait for 4250–4255, SL 4240.
Short-term SELL: only activate if 4309 breaks, then sell the retest on lower TF.
No FOMO in a low-volume holiday week.
Which scenario are you leaning into next week: buying 425x, or waiting for a 4309 breakdown to sell the correction?
