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Wave Analysis

Is BTCUSD (Bitcoin) heading towards $91,000?Hello! BTC has finally broken through its main downward trendline, signaling a shift in market sentiment after a prolonged period of selling pressure. Following this breakout, the price formed a clear inverse head and shoulders pattern, indicating that buyers have stepped in strongly after the final liquidation at the head level. Since then, BTC has been moving within a clearly defined ascending channel, consistently creating higher highs and higher lows, which confirms the bullish trend. As long as the price respects the lower boundary of this channel, the bullish structure remains intact. The next significant resistance lies between the 92,500 and 93,000 levels, which also aligns with the previous breakout area you marked. This area is likely to attract sellers, making it a realistic target for the current move. Overall, the chart continues to support an upward movement towards the 93K level, unless the price breaks below the channel support, which would weaken the bullish reversal setup.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LauraCharts
Relationship Between Open Interest and VolatilityIntroduction In the world of derivatives trading, particularly in futures and options markets, understanding open interest and volatility is crucial for traders and investors. Both metrics provide critical insights into market sentiment, liquidity, and potential price movements. While open interest indicates the number of outstanding contracts, volatility reflects the degree of price fluctuations over time. The relationship between these two variables can reveal hidden trends, market momentum, and potential reversals, making them indispensable tools in trading strategies. Understanding Open Interest Open interest (OI) refers to the total number of outstanding contracts, either futures or options, that have not been settled or closed. Each open contract has a buyer and a seller, and OI increases when new positions are added to the market and decreases when positions are closed or exercised. Key characteristics of open interest include: Market Activity Indicator: Rising OI indicates the influx of new money and active participation in a particular contract. Trend Confirmation Tool: Increasing OI along with rising prices generally indicates a strong bullish trend, whereas increasing OI with falling prices signals a strong bearish trend. Liquidity Measure: Higher OI ensures better liquidity, tighter bid-ask spreads, and easier execution for traders. Position Insight: OI can also help identify accumulation or distribution phases in the market. For example, if a stock’s call options show rising OI while the underlying price rises, it may suggest that traders are bullish and expect further price gains. Conversely, rising OI in put options during a declining market may indicate growing bearish sentiment. Understanding Volatility Volatility represents the degree of variation in a security’s price over a specific period. It is a critical measure of market risk and uncertainty, and it directly impacts derivatives pricing, especially options. Volatility can be classified as: Historical Volatility (HV): Measures the past price fluctuations of an asset over a defined period. Implied Volatility (IV): Reflects the market’s expectations of future price movements, derived from the prices of options. Realized Volatility: Actual observed price movements over time. High volatility indicates larger price swings and higher risk, whereas low volatility signals more stable price movement. Volatility affects traders’ decisions because it impacts potential profit and loss, option premiums, and hedging strategies. Interplay Between Open Interest and Volatility The relationship between open interest and volatility is complex and dynamic. Observing changes in OI alongside price movements can help traders interpret market behavior and anticipate potential trends. Rising Open Interest with Rising Prices: When both prices and OI increase, it usually indicates strong bullish momentum and higher trader confidence. Increased participation can lead to higher liquidity, which may moderate volatility in the short term, as the market can absorb larger trades without drastic price swings. Rising Open Interest with Falling Prices: Rising OI amid falling prices suggests bearish sentiment is strengthening. This can increase market volatility because more traders are actively participating in the trend, and any sudden news or market shock could amplify price swings. Falling Open Interest with Rising Prices: When OI declines as prices rise, it often signals short-covering or profit-taking. This situation may lead to reduced volatility over time, as speculative positions are being closed, and fewer traders remain exposed to the market. Falling Open Interest with Falling Prices: Decreasing OI with declining prices typically indicates a liquidation phase where traders are exiting positions. This can reduce market volatility, as downward movements are less fueled by speculative trading and more by position unwinding. Open Interest as a Leading Indicator of Volatility Open interest can act as a leading indicator for future volatility. Since OI reflects the number of active contracts and overall market participation, sudden spikes or drops in OI often precede changes in market volatility. High Open Interest Levels: When OI is unusually high, the market is crowded with positions. Any unexpected news can trigger sharp price swings, increasing volatility, as traders rush to adjust or close positions. Low Open Interest Levels: Low OI indicates reduced market participation. In such scenarios, even small trades can cause large price movements, resulting in high volatility despite low market participation. Unwinding and Reversals: A sudden decline in OI after a prolonged trend can hint at potential trend exhaustion. Volatility often spikes during such reversals as traders adjust positions in anticipation of market corrections. Practical Applications in Trading Traders use the relationship between OI and volatility in multiple ways: Trend Analysis: Combining price trends with OI helps identify whether a market move is supported by new money or merely a short-covering rally. For instance, a bullish trend with rising OI indicates genuine accumulation, while a bullish trend with falling OI may suggest the move is unsustainable. Options Trading: Implied volatility in options pricing is closely monitored alongside OI. High OI in options, coupled with rising IV, often signals expectations of significant price movement, providing trading opportunities for straddles or strangles. Risk Management: Traders can use OI and volatility together to manage exposure. For instance, high volatility with rising OI may warrant tighter stop-loss levels to protect against sudden adverse moves. Liquidity Assessment: OI levels indicate how easy it is to enter or exit positions. High OI paired with moderate volatility ensures sufficient liquidity without excessive risk of large swings. Limitations While the relationship between OI and volatility is useful, traders should be aware of its limitations: Lagging Nature: OI changes may not immediately reflect price reversals. Market Manipulation: Large players can artificially inflate OI to mislead other traders. External Factors: Macro events, earnings reports, geopolitical developments, and economic data can affect volatility independently of OI. Thus, relying solely on OI and volatility without other technical or fundamental analysis can lead to misleading conclusions. Conclusion The relationship between open interest and volatility offers deep insights into market dynamics. Open interest measures trader participation and sentiment, while volatility quantifies market risk and price fluctuations. Together, they provide a framework for understanding trends, anticipating reversals, and making informed trading decisions. Rising OI often signals strong trends, while shifts in volatility highlight the market’s reaction to these trends. Traders who effectively combine these metrics with price analysis, market news, and other indicators can better navigate complex markets and optimize trading strategies. In essence, open interest and volatility are intertwined indicators: OI reflects the quantity of market commitment, while volatility reflects the intensity of price reactions. Recognizing their interplay is essential for professional traders and retail investors alike, providing both predictive power and strategic guidance in derivatives markets.
NSE:HDFCBANKEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Building a Quarterly Results Trading Checklist1. Pre-Earnings Preparation: Setting the Foundation Before any earnings are announced, traders must prepare. Preparation removes guesswork and gives clarity. Key factors include: a. Identify High-Impact Companies Not all results move the market equally. Focus on: Large-cap companies Sector leaders Companies with a history of large earnings-day volatility Stocks with heavy FII/DII ownership Companies with recent major news (M&A, regulatory changes, product launches) These stocks typically see stronger price reactions. b. Know the Earnings Date Many traders get caught off guard because they miss the exact results-announcement timing. Check: Whether results are announced before market, during market, or after market close If management commentary or concall is on the same day or the next day Timing helps you plan intraday or positional trades better. c. Study the Previous Quarter’s Performance Review the last 2–3 earnings releases. Note: Revenue growth trends Margins (EBITDA, PAT) Management guidance accuracy Market reaction to previous results Surprise elements (positive or negative) This helps form expectations about whether the upcoming result can challenge or follow historical patterns. d. Analyze Expectations (Street Estimates) Quarterly results trading is more about expectations vs. reality than actual performance. Expectations come from: Analyst projections Bloomberg/Refinitiv consensus News flow Channel checks Management guidance If expectations are too high, even decent results can cause the stock to fall. 2. Fundamental Metrics to Watch in Results Quarterly results contain dozens of data points, but traders should focus on the most high-impact ones. These include: a. Revenue Growth Shows overall demand. Compare YoY and QoQ growth: YoY reveals long-term momentum QoQ signals near-term growth consistency b. Profit Margins Margins show operational efficiency. Key margins: Gross margin EBITDA margin PAT margin Expanding margins often result in bullish moves. c. Profit After Tax (PAT) A company may show revenue growth but shrinking profits due to higher costs. Such divergences significantly impact stock direction. d. Guidance and Commentary Often more important than the numbers themselves. Traders watch: Next quarter revenue outlook Margin guidance CapEx plans Industry demand expectations Management tone (optimistic, neutral, cautious) Negative guidance can tank the stock even if the reported numbers are strong. e. Segment-Wise Performance Multi-segment companies like Reliance, Tata Motors, or IT companies require detailed segment analysis: Which segment grew/dropped? Is the core business performing well? Are new initiatives gaining traction? This helps identify future revenue drivers. 3. Technical Checklist Before Trading Results Fundamentals show what happened; technicals show how traders positioned themselves before results. a. Identify Key Support and Resistance Levels Mark: Major swing high and low 20-, 50-, 200-day moving averages Trendline support Supply zones These levels help shape entry and exit plans. b. Assess Pre-Earnings Momentum Check if the stock is: Running up before results (a sign of high expectations) Consolidating (indecision) Selling off (low investor confidence) Stocks that run too fast ahead of earnings often correct even on good results. c. Volume Analysis Higher volumes before results indicate: Institutional positioning Potential for large post-earnings moves Smart money activity d. Volatility Check Recent volatility helps determine: Lot sizes Stop-loss width Position sizing Whether to take a trade at all If volatility is extreme, avoid leveraged positions. 4. Crafting the Trading Strategy Once fundamentals and technicals are studied, create actionable trade plans using this checklist. a. Decide Your Trading Style You can trade quarterly results in three ways: Pre-Earnings Positional Trade Based on expectation buildup Suitable only for high-conviction setups Post-Results Intraday Trade Safer Trade only after numbers are out Post-Results Positional Trade Based on guidance Ideal for capturing multi-week moves Choose one based on risk tolerance. b. Define Entry Trigger Triggers can include: Breakout above resistance Breakdown below support High-volume candle Reversal candle after a knee-jerk reaction A rule-based entry prevents emotional decisions. c. Set Stop-Loss and Target Levels Risk management is the spine of the checklist. For results trading: Keep wider stops due to volatility Use position sizing to manage risk Avoid averaging down Use ATR-based stops for best results. d. Avoid Trading Immediately at Results Time The first 5–10 minutes after results are volatile and full of fake moves. Let the market: Absorb data Form a stable direction Build volume confirmation Then act. 5. Psychology and Behavior Checklist Earnings trading requires strong emotional control. a. Don’t Chase the First Spike The initial price spike is often wrong. Wait for confirmation. b. Avoid Bias If you "like" the company, you may misread the results. Let the data dictate the trade. c. Stick to the Plan Do not: Increase position size impulsively Trade without stop-loss Overtrade because of excitement A structured checklist reduces psychological stress. 6. Risk Management Checklist Earnings trading can flip sharply. Risk control is crucial. a. Never Trade Full Capital Limit exposure to: 2–5% of total capital for intraday 5–10% for positional b. Use Hedging When Needed Hedging tools: Options (buying calls/puts) Straddles/strangles Futures for protection For unpredictable companies, hedge or avoid. c. Avoid Illiquid Stocks Low-volume stocks widen spreads and increase slippage. 7. Post-Results Evaluation Checklist After the trade, analyze performance to refine your strategy. a. Review What Happened Document: Were expectations correct? Did the stock reaction match your analysis? Was your entry/exit well-timed? b. Update Your Earnings Database Maintain a simple log: Company name Estimate vs. actual results Market reaction Volatility levels Over time, this builds pattern recognition. c. Identify Mistakes Mistakes commonly include: Entering too early Ignoring guidance Trading on gut feeling Correct them in the next cycle. Conclusion: Why a Quarterly Results Checklist Matters Quarterly results bring both opportunity and chaos. Without a checklist, traders rely on emotions and incomplete information, leading to inconsistent outcomes. A well-designed checklist—combining fundamentals, technicals, psychology, and risk management—creates a structured, rule-based approach. It helps identify winning trades, avoid traps, and build long-term trading consistency. By following this 1000-word guide, you can build a reliable earnings-season trading framework that maximizes profit potential while protecting your capital.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
E-Commerce Profits in the Trading Market1. The Evolution of E-Commerce in Trading Markets Traditional trading relied heavily on physical marketplaces, intermediaries, warehousing networks, and region-specific demand. E-commerce broke these boundaries, enabling sellers to trade goods across vast geographies with minimal friction. With digital payments, online marketplaces, automated logistics, and data analytics, the trading market’s profit model fundamentally shifted from limited, location-based selling to scalable, digital-led operations. Key drivers of this evolution include: Internet penetration and smartphones making online buying accessible. Logistics innovation, including hyperlocal delivery, multi-city fulfilment centers, and cross-border shipping. Digital payments reducing transaction friction. AI-powered recommendations, improving customer experience and conversion. These developments made e-commerce not just an extension of traditional trading but a new, dominant trading model. 2. How E-Commerce Generates Profits in the Trading Market A. High Scalability with Low Marginal Cost After initial setup—website, inventory, marketplace listings—the cost of reaching additional customers is extremely low. Unlike a physical store, which requires space, staff, and utilities, e-commerce allows businesses to scale nationally and globally without proportionally rising expenses. This creates a unique margin structure where revenue can grow faster than cost, leading to higher profits. B. Marketplace Fee Model and Commissions For platforms like Amazon, Flipkart, Alibaba, and Shopify stores, profits are earned through: Listing fees Commissions per sale Fulfilment fees Advertising fees Subscription plans This model creates steady and predictable income for e-commerce giants. Marketplaces profit whether a seller is new or established, creating a robust ecosystem. C. Data-Driven Pricing and Dynamic Margins E-commerce thrives on data — demand analysis, consumer behaviour, competitor pricing, time-of-day trends, geo-level demand, and more. Dynamic pricing allows: Higher margins during peak demand Competitive pricing during slow periods Inventory liquidation at optimal prices This flexibility increases profitability significantly compared to static, offline pricing. D. Inventory-Light Models: Dropshipping and D2C Modern traders use models where inventory risk is low or zero: Dropshipping: The seller markets the product; the supplier ships it. D2C (Direct-to-Consumer): Brands bypass distributors and retail chains. These models minimize working capital needs and reduce financial risks, allowing even small traders to achieve strong profit margins. E. Cross-Border E-Commerce Trading Global e-commerce platforms open new profit channels for traders: Selling high-margin Indian products (handicrafts, Ayurveda, textiles) abroad. Arbitrage trading between markets where prices differ. Importing niche products and selling in new markets. Cross-border trade provides multi-currency revenue, higher margins, and greater market depth. 3. Key Profit Drivers in the E-Commerce Trading Ecosystem 1. Customer Acquisition and Retention Profits depend heavily on how efficiently a business attracts and retains buyers. SEO and content marketing bring organic, low-cost traffic. Paid ads bring fast conversions but require proper budgeting and targeting. Email and CRM systems generate repeat purchases at low cost. Repeat customer revenue improves profitability dramatically, as acquisition costs drop over time. 2. Supply Chain and Logistics Optimization Efficient logistics boost profits by: Reducing delivery time Lowering return rates Optimizing warehousing costs Improving customer satisfaction Companies that integrate last-mile delivery or use fulfilment services achieve higher operational efficiency, which strengthens margins. 3. Scale-Based Negotiation Power Larger sellers or marketplaces achieve higher profits by: Negotiating lower supplier costs Reducing per-unit shipping charges Accessing better credit terms Getting priority listing and visibility Scale multiplies profitability through operational leverage. 4. Technology Automation Automation reduces labor costs, errors, and delays. Profitable traders use: Inventory management systems Predictive analytics for demand forecasting Automated ad campaigns Chatbots and AI-driven customer support Workflow automation tools Tech-driven operations allow small teams to run large e-commerce operations profitably. 5. Brand Building and Customer Trust Brands earn higher profits than generic sellers due to: Emotional connection Repeat sales Higher pricing power Positive reviews and trust D2C brands, in particular, achieve strong margins by owning their narrative, packaging, and product experience. 4. Profit Models in E-Commerce Trading A. Retail Arbitrage Buying lower-priced goods and selling higher online. Profit comes from price gaps between markets. B. Private Label Selling Sellers source generic products, rebrand them, and sell at premium margins. C. Wholesale and Bulk Trading Traders buy in bulk from manufacturers and sell online: High volume Low per-unit margins Stable profits D. Subscription-Based Sales Recurring revenue models (memberships, replenishment boxes) provide predictable monthly income. E. Affiliate Marketing Not all traders sell products; some earn commissions by promoting others’ products online. 5. Challenges That Affect Profitability While e-commerce is profitable, several challenges can reduce margins: 1. High Competition and Price Wars Low entry barriers attract many sellers, which reduces margins. 2. Platform Dependency Sellers relying heavily on marketplaces face: Commission increases Listing restrictions Algorithm changes 3. Logistics and Return Costs High return rates in categories like fashion reduce profitability. 4. Advertising Costs Paid ads can become expensive if not optimized. 5. Inventory Risks Overstocking or unsold goods impact cash flow and profits. Despite these challenges, strategic traders navigate them using efficient supply chains, niche products, and technology. 6. The Future of E-Commerce Profits in the Trading Market The next decade will bring transformative changes: 1. AI-Driven Trading AI will optimize pricing, demand forecasting, and customer segmentation. 2. Live Commerce Real-time selling through live video will drive impulse purchases and higher conversions. 3. Hyper-Personalized Shopping Customized product recommendations will increase average order value and profitability. 4. Sustainable and Green E-Commerce Consumers increasingly prefer eco-friendly brands, creating high-margin niches. 5. Expansion of Cross-Border Markets More small traders will sell globally as shipping and compliance improve. Conclusion E-commerce has fundamentally reshaped the trading market, turning it into a fast, scalable, data-driven ecosystem where profits come from technology adoption, efficient operations, global reach, and consumer-centric strategies. Whether through private labels, cross-border trading, dropshipping, bulk wholesale, or digital-first branding, e-commerce offers multiple pathways to achieving profitability. As AI, logistics innovation, and digital payments evolve, e-commerce will continue to unlock even greater profit potential in global trading markets.
NSE:BAJFINANCEEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Gold H1 - Can Gold reject 4167 and fall to 4133 today?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (27/11) 📈 Market Context Gold is trading inside an intraday consolidation after a strong H1 displacement. The session is now primed for liquidity engineering before the next leg. Key narrative drivers traders must respect today: • Stronger USD expectations continue to shape risk sentiment • Institutional desks frequently exploit sweep zones during consolidation • Range-bound conditions favor fakeouts → displacement → expansion mechanics • Headlines around U.S. monetary tone amplify intraday volatility The current chart highlights balanced liquidity both above and below structure, supporting a two-way SMC playbook. 🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (H1) Market is holding a rising channel, but internally ranging — a typical liquidity map scenario: • Buy-side liquidity pocket: 4180 → 4182 (premium extreme) • Sell-side liquidity pool: 4110 → 4133 (discount extreme / origin zone) • Internal equilibrium zone: 4150–4170 chop region (no-trade area) We expect this sequence: Sweep → CHoCH/BOS → Displacement → Retest → Expansion. 🎯 Trade Plans for Today 🔴SELL GOLD 4180–4182 | SL 4190 Thesis: Premium liquidity sweep above local highs before downside displacement. Activation rules: • Price sweeps 4182 liquidity • Bearish CHoCH/MSS + BOS down on M5–M15 • Imbalance retest / FVG entry after structure break Targets: • 4167 (nearest reaction) • 4150 (equilibrium raid) • 4135–4133 (discount retest) 🟢 BUY GOLD 4135–4133 | SL 4125 Thesis: Sell-side liquidity sweep into the origin zone before upside impulse. Activation rules: • Price taps 4133 pool (sweep below structure) • Bullish CHoCH/MSS + BOS up on M5–M15 • FVG fill / bullish rejection wick confirmation Targets: • 4155+ • 4167 (reclaim zone) • 4180+ (premium raid target) ⚠️ Risk Management • Do NOT trade inside 4150–4170 without clear displacement • Wait for CHoCH + BOS before execution • Treat the upper and lower zones as liquidity traps, not trend entries • Reduce size during news spikes unless structure confirms • SL = wave invalidation, no averaging in chop 📝 Summary Gold is in accumulation/redistribution mode. Desks may: • Run buy-side liquidity at 4182, then displace down → retest discount or • Sweep sell-side liquidity at 4133, confirm CHoCH up → expand with impulse Today is a liquidity session, not early trend chasing. Execute only after confirmation. 📍 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
 INDIGO 1 Hour Time Frame ✅ Current Price & Broad Trend 1. Latest publicly quoted price: around ₹5,916–₹5,923. 2. On a daily/mid‑term view, most technical indicators remain bullish: moving averages (50‑day, 200‑day) are supportive, and technical‑rating screens (on several platforms) show a “Strong Buy”. 📌 What it means on 1‑hour chart / near term As long as price stays above the pivot (~₹5,872), the near‑term bias remains slightly bullish / range‑to‑upside. A dip toward ~₹5,870–₹5,820 could act as a buyable support, while the ~₹5,730–₹5,820 zone is more “secondary buffer.” On upside — a clear break above ~₹6,015–₹6,020 could target ₹6,100–₹6,200+ (near 52‑week high zone). If price falls below ~₹5,820 decisively, then the risk increases of a deeper pullback toward ~₹5,730 or lower — but that’s a deeper intraday/swing‑trade scenario, not a baseline expectation.
NSE:INDIGOLong
by Knowledgehub
Part 9 Trading Master Class With Experts What Are Options? Options are derivative contracts. This means their value is derived from an underlying asset—such as Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks like Reliance or TCS, commodities, or currencies. There are two types of options: Call Options (CE) – Right to buy at a specific price Put Options (PE) – Right to sell at a specific price But remember this key point: Options give a right, not an obligation. This is what makes options asymmetric: Buyers have limited risk and unlimited potential gain. Sellers (writers) have limited profit but potentially high risk.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by SkyTradingZone
BAJFINANCE 1 Day Time Frame ✅ What we know now (as of latest available data) 1. The latest publicly quoted price for Bajaj Finance is ~ ₹1,042 – ₹1,044. 2. According to a recent report, the stock touched an intraday high of ₹1,042.20. 3. The stock is above its short‑ and long‑term moving averages, which suggests current bullish momentum. ⚠️ Important Notes / Context These are technical levels derived using standard pivot‑point / support‑resistance calculation methods. They are not guaranteed — markets may overshoot or violently gap. Always consider fundamentals (company news, sector, broader market sentiment) along with technicals before acting. Use stop‑loss / risk management because intraday volatility can cause swings beyond these levels.
NSE:BAJFINANCELong
by Knowledgehub
HDFCBANK 1 Week Time Frame 🔹 Quick Snapshot 1. The current share price is about ₹ 1,015. 2. 52‑week range: Low ≈ ₹ 812.15, High ≈ ₹ 1,020.50. 3. Recent weekly momentum and technicals appear neutral-to‑slightly bullish: short‑term indicator signals mostly “buy”, and momentum oscillators (like MACD) are supportive. 🔄 What to Watch: Scenarios for the Week Bullish breakout: If HDFC Bank closes above ~₹ 1,011–₹ 1,013 with good volume, there’s potential to rally toward ₹ 1,025–₹ 1,038 in coming days. Range‑bound / consolidation: If price hovers between ₹ 984–₹ 1,013, expect sideways action — possibly oscillating in that band. Bearish breakdown: A decisive close below ₹ 984 may send it toward ₹ 970–₹ 956, increasing risk of deeper downside, especially if market sentiment turns weak.
NSE:HDFCBANKEducation
by Knowledgehub
Candle Patterns Practical Trading Tips Using Candle Patterns Trade only with trend confirmation. A reversal pattern against a strong trend may fail. Look for patterns at key levels. Support, resistance, supply-demand zones enhance accuracy. Use stop-loss placement wisely. For example, below the wick of a Hammer or above the wick of a Shooting Star. Avoid trading every pattern blindly. Candle patterns tell probabilities, not certainties. Wait for candle close. Incomplete candles may give false signals. Use volume and structure to confirm. Patterns with volume are more reliable.
NSE:TATAPOWEREducation
by TechnicalExpress
[SeoVereign] BITCOIN BEARISH Outlook – November 27, 2025I’m sharing a Bitcoin downside idea as of November 27. Bitcoin has recently seen a sharp decline, and it’s undeniable that this has gradually increased the possibility of a rebound. However, when examining the current chart structure closely, the key conditions that, by my standards, would confirm a bullish reversal have not yet been met. While I expect reversal signals to appear soon and have been observing the chart closely, I’ve identified that, in the current area, short-term downward pressure is actually becoming more prominent. Therefore, I’m sharing a bearish outlook. The basis for this view is as follows. First, in the retracement zone of the recent wave, the Fibonacci 0.786 level is acting as strong resistance. This ratio is typically an area near local highs where selling pressure strengthens again, and even if a rebound occurs, it is more likely to be a correction rather than a full trend reversal. Additionally, the Trend-Based Extension 0.786 level, measured based on the direction of the wave, is also forming resistance. This indicates not just a simple retracement but that structural selling pressure is accumulating within the wave extension. It shows that the current price is still positioned within the continuation of a downward wave. Lastly, when combining the ratios of the entire wave, a Crab pattern completing at the 1.902 zone is forming validly. The 1.902 zone of the Crab pattern is categorized as an area with a high probability of a reversal at the top, and when multiple patterns and ratios converge at a single point, the reliability of the reversal increases even further. With these factors operating simultaneously, I assess the current zone as one where short-term downside is more likely than an immediate bullish reversal. Accordingly, I’ve set the average target at 85,400 USDT, and once the move develops, I expect to decide whether to hold or not at that level.
Short
by SeoVereign
Nifty Analysis for Nov 21, 2025Wrap-up: Nifty breaks previous high 26104, now pattern has been changed and nifty now formed internal wxy pattern and major ABC wave pattern of which wave 5 is expected to be completed at 26104. What I’m Watching for Nov 21, 2025 🔍 Short nifty only if it breaks 26097 SL above 25857 for a target of 25934-25892 and 25673-22596 (SL on 15 min. candle close). Buy nifty only if takes support at 26154 for a maximum target of 26433 only intraday with a sl below 26097. Disclaimer: Sharing my personal market view — only for educational purpose not financial advice.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by ChartMasteryHQ
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 27/11/20251. Momentum D1: D1 momentum is contracting and preparing to reverse. We need to wait for today’s daily candle to close to confirm the reversal signal. If confirmed, the market may enter a downward phase lasting around 4–5 days. H4: H4 momentum continues to decline and is approaching the oversold zone. This indicates that the current downward move is weakening, and a corrective bounce is likely once H4 momentum reverses in the oversold area. H1: H1 momentum is also decreasing and moving toward the oversold zone. Therefore, we expect a mild bounce once H1 momentum turns upward. ________________________________________ 2. Wave Structure D1: The wave structure on H4 remains unchanged from previous analysis. The key difference is that D1 momentum has now contracted and shows signs of reversal, strengthening the scenario of a continuation of the purple Y wave. The completion of this Y wave will likely align with the moment D1 momentum descends into the oversold zone and reverses. H4: On the H4 timeframe, the blue ABC corrective structure is close to completion, and the market is currently in the final stage of wave C. Based on H4 momentum reversal cycles, a series of lower highs and lower lows suggests that the ABC structure is likely complete and price is in the final phase of wave Y. H1: On H1, a 5-wave black structure is forming. In yesterday’s analysis, I presented two scenarios and explained the characteristics of each. With D1 momentum now reversing, I am leaning toward the scenario where the 5 black waves represent the C wave of the blue structure. Yesterday’s targets for wave 5 (black) and wave C (blue) were truncated — price only reached 4173.8 and failed to touch 4184. Since then, the market has been moving sideways within a wide range. Key observations: • Price rose but failed to break the 4173.8 high. • Price later dropped near 4137. • RSI showed bearish divergence from wave 3 (black): price made higher highs while RSI made lower highs → suggesting wave 5 likely completed as an Ending Diagonal. At this stage, I want to see price break below 4137 before H4 momentum reverses upward. This would provide additional confirmation that the ABC corrective structure has completed. The 4058 zone continues to be a strong liquidity area to look for sell entries under the assumption that wave 5 has finished. ________________________________________ 3. Trading Plan Sell Zone: 4158 – 4160 SL: 4178 TP1: 4081 TP2: 4020 TP3: 3958
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
High-Probability Elliott Wave Setup on TVSELECTTVS ELECTRONICS – Wave C Completion Zone Hit | Wave 5 Rally Setup Loading? 🧠 Market Structure & Wave Breakdown TVS Electronics is forming a textbook Elliott Wave structure. After a powerful impulsive Wave 1, the price has completed a clean A–B–C corrective phase, and is now sitting inside the crucial Wave C completion zone (₹541–₹522) 🔥. This zone aligns with: 50–78% retracement of Wave A (typical Wave B/2 retracement) Demand + structure support from previous consolidation Market psychology reset after an overextended Wave B This is where the early reversal of Wave 5 typically begins 📈. 📚 Educational Insights 🔄 ChoCH – Change of Character: The earlier breakout confirmed a structural shift, marking the start of the new Elliott Wave cycle. When ChoCH appears again near lows, it often signals the end of corrections. 📉 A–B–C Corrections Explained: Price forms Wave A (sharp drop) → Wave B (retracement) → Wave C (final flush). Wave C often completes at deeper zones like the 113–128% extension, which aligns with this chart. 🌀 Wave C Completion Zone (541–522): This zone marks exhaustion of sellers and transition to accumulation, especially when aligned with fibs AND structural support. 🚀 Wave 5 Expectations: Wave 5 is usually driven by renewed momentum, volume expansion, and trend continuation. Targets come from fib extensions of Wave 4. 🎯 Prediction & Targets If the price reverses from the ₹541–₹522 support and breaks structure upward: 🎯 First Target (Wave 5 Mid-Zone): ₹763 – ₹793 🎯 Second Target (Wave 5 Completion): ₹891 A break above ₹605.95 (previous micro-structure high) will confirm the bullish wave activation. 🛑 Stop Loss (Closing Basis): Below ₹504 This level invalidates the Wave 4 / Wave C completion structure. 💡 Trading Strategy (Educational Purpose Only) 🟢 Entry Zone: ₹541–₹522 Look for bullish reversal patterns → Hammer, Engulfing, Double Bottom, or ChoCH. 📈 Confirmation Entry: Break above ₹605.95 + retest → safer Wave 5 trend-following entry. 🎯 Profit Booking: • Partial at ₹763–₹793 • Final around ₹891 ⚖️ Risk Management: • Use SL below ₹504 (daily close). • Risk max 1–2% of capital. • Don’t chase candles — wait for clean structure break. 🧩 Summary & Outlook TVS Electronics has now entered the Wave C completion zone, a high-probability demand and reversal area. If buyers step in here and structure flips bullish, a Wave 5 rally toward ₹763 → ₹891 could unfold. This setup aligns perfectly with Elliott Wave principles, Fibonacci confluence, and structural demand. ⚡ ⚠️ Disclaimer I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only — not financial advice.
NSE:TVSELECTLong
by LiveTradingBox
Ethereum – Elliott Wave Analysis (Weekly Chart) #Phase 1: Impulse Wave (1–5) Completed ETH completed a 5-wave impulsive structure from the 2022 lows to the 2024 top: Wave (1) – Initial reversal from the bear market bottom Wave (2) – Deep corrective pullback Wave (3) – Strong expansion wave (typically the largest, as shown here) Wave (4) – Sideways consolidation within the channel Wave (5) – Final push into the upper resistance of the long-term channel This 5-wave structure completed near the $4,093 region. #Phase 2: ABC Corrective Pattern Playing Out After the 5-wave completion, ETH entered a large ABC correction: (A) Wave A sharp drop from the top, marking the start of correction. (B) Wave A lower-high retracement that couldn’t break above the multi-year channel resistance — classic sign of a corrective rally. (C) Wave This wave completed near the lower boundary of the long-term channel (shown on your chart), fulfilling the ABC structure. #Phase 3: New Cycle – Larger ABC Structure Forming After completing the previous ABC cycle, ETH started a new higher-degree correction: Wave A (up) A strong rally to ~4,956 created the larger-degree Wave A. Wave B (current) Price is now declining in a steep Wave B structure. Your highlighted grey demand zone ($1,800–$2,200) is the most likely B-wave target. Notes Must Read B-waves often break support briefly, creating a sentiment trap #Phase 4: Wave C – The Big Expansion (2026?) After Wave B finishes inside $1,800–$2,200, ETH is likely to start a massive Wave C. Wave C is typically: Impulsive Equal to Wave A or 1.618× Wave A Target 🎯 $6,000 – $6,400 region This matches the Elliott Wave rule where Wave C often extends strongly after a deep B-wave. ~Disclaimer~ High Risk Investment Trading or investing in assets like crypto, equity, or commodities carries high risk and may not suit all investors. Analysis on this channel uses recent technical data and market sentiment from web sources for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing or trading. This channel, Render With Me, is not responsible for any financial loss arising directly or indirectly from using or relying on this information.
by renderwithme
BPCL – Is a Double Combo Unfolding?After reviewing the recent price action in BPCL, the structure that initially looked like a potential impulsive rally has revealed a different internal behaviour upon closer inspection. The key deciding factor was the momentum profile at the recent high near 381.55 . Instead of showing the typical loss of strength expected at the end of a Wave 5, the RSI remained firm with no bearish divergence , which is a classic characteristic of a C-wave termination , not an impulsive fifth wave. This prompted a reassessment of the entire advance. Revisiting the Structure From the March low near 234.01 , price advanced in a clear two-stage corrective manner. Both segments carried zigzag characteristics, aligning better with a W–X–Y double combo rather than an impulsive 1–2–3–4–5 sequence. Wave W ended at 234.01 after a clean A-B-C decline. The strong recovery that followed subdivided into two smaller zigzags, forming Wave X , which topped out at 381.55 . The RSI behaviour at this point supported the corrective interpretation, showing strong momentum without the exhaustion typically seen at the end of an impulsive structure. This combination lends weight to the view that the rally into 381.55 was corrective in nature. Current Outlook – Wave Y in Progress If the 381.55 high is accepted as the completion of Wave X, the decline from that point can be viewed as the early stages of Wave Y, which typically unfolds as another A-B-C structure. The initial decline resembles a developing Wave A . A corrective Wave B rebound can follow. A deeper Wave C may then complete the entire double combo, with possible downside levels aligning toward the 240–260 region depending on the depth of the final leg. These projected swings are guidelines, not certainties, and the internal structure of each leg must be monitored. Invalidation Level The critical level for this view is clear: A decisive move above 381.55 invalidates the entire bearish W–X–Y expectation. If price breaks and sustains above this level, the corrective interpretation collapses and a new bullish sequence would be favoured instead. Conclusion The internal characteristics of the rally—especially the RSI behaviour—support the idea that BPCL is unfolding a double combo correction rather than a completed impulsive advance. As long as the 381.55 level holds, the risk of further decline remains open, with a potential full completion of Wave Y lower. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
NSE:BPCLShort
by WaveXplorer
Gold mcx today booked 600 points weekly 4000 points ,buy on dipParameters Data Asset Name Gold MCX Reason 🟩 Global Fed cut expectations, strong YTD performance, aur ₹1,25,800 ka resistance breakout. R:R 🟩 1:1.50 (Favorable for T2/T3 targets. High momentum trading required.) / Threshold: Breakout above - & Breakdown below Current Trade 🟩 BUY Active ⬆️ Target T1 - 126500.00 , T2 - 127200.00 , T3 - 128000.00 , Stop loss - 125000.00 Probability 🟩 85% Confidence 🟩 25/30 (Resistance breakout aur strong fundamental backing.) Price Movement Buy side: 126500.00, 127200.00, 128000.00. If break 125000.00 then downside possible towards 124500.00, 124000.00, 123500.00. FNO Data (OI/PCR) 🟩 Fresh long positions add ho rahi hain (Long Buildup). Liquidity Zones 🟩 Liquidity ₹1,25,500 par strong support de rahi hai. Max Pain 🟨 N/A Gamma Exposure 🟩 Gamma spike ho raha hai, jo acceleration ka signal hai. Supports 🟩 S1: 125220.00 (Immediate Pivot) | S2: 125000.00 (Psychological) | S3: 124500.00 (Minor Technical) Resistances 🟥 R1: 126500.00 (Next Key Supply Zone) | R2: 127200.00 | R3: 128000.00 DEMA Levels 🟩 Price 20/50/100 DEMA se substantially upar hai. ADX/RSI/DMI 🟩 RSI (14) \sim 78.00 (Highly Overbought, par momentum extremely strong). Cross‑Asset Correlation 🟩 Global Gold COMEX mein bhi tezi hai. Sentiment Index 🟩 Extreme Greed Zone (High institutional interest). Source Ledger 🟩 MCX, TradingView (Image Data), CME Group, Bloomberg (Verified & Triangulated).
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Silver today booked 3400 points profit,buy given yesterday alsoSilver today booked 3400 points profin on 2 traded , continuesly buying recommended from Friday evening. Parameters Data Asset Name Silver MCX Reason 🟩 Global rate cut hopes aur strong technical momentum ke chalte aggressive buying. R:R 🟩 R:R ratio is favourable for a target near R2. / Threshold: Breakout above - & Breakdown below Current Trade 🟩 BUY Active ⬆️ Target T1 - 161800.00 , T2 - 163200.00 , T3 - 165000.00 , Stop loss - 158500.00 Probability 🟩 75% (Global tailwinds aur strong breakout ke aadhar par.) Confidence 🟩 20/30 (Dominant bullish signals from multiple indicators.) Price Movement Buy side: 161800.00, 163200.00, 165000.00. If break 158500.00 then downside possible towards 157500.00, 156000.00, 155000.00. FNO Data (OI/PCR) 🟩 OI Buildup: Long Buildup (Heavy volume and price rise). PCR: Neutral to slightly bullish trend. Liquidity Zones 🟩 Strong demand zone (Liquidity) ₹1,59,000 - ₹1,60,000 ke aas-paas shift ho gayi hai. Max Pain 🟨 ₹1,60,000 ke kareeb (Option sellers ₹1,60,000 par max pain chahte hain.) Gamma Exposure 🟩 Positive Gamma shift, jo upside momentum ko support kar raha hai. Supports 🟩 S1: 159000.00 (Previous Resistance turned Support) | S2: 157500.00 (20-Day EMA) | S3: 156000.00 (Major Pivot) Resistances 🟥 R1: 161800.00 (Next Short-Term High) | R2: 163200.00 (Major Supply Zone) | R3: 165000.00 (Recent High/All-time High Zone) DEMA Levels 🟩 Price 20/50/100 DEMA se kaafi upar hai, jo strong Bullish trend confirm karta hai. ADX/RSI/DMI 🟩 RSI (14) \sim 70+ (Overbought, but Strong Buy signal) aur ADX \sim 40+ (Strong Trend). Cross‑Asset Correlation 🟩 Gold (Comex) aur Crude Oil (Comex) ke saath positive correlation. COT Positioning 🟩 Managed Money long positions badha rahe hain (Bullish signal). Source Ledger 🟩 MCX, Comex, Bullions.co.in, Investing.com, Groww (Verified & Triangulated).
MCX:SILVER1!Long
by EquityCommodityMarketJaiPrakas
Gold H1 – Liquidity Plays as Hassett Leads Fed Chair Race🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (26/11) 📈 Market Context Gold opens the week reacting to fresh political headlines as Kevin Hassett emerges as the frontrunner for Trump’s next Fed Chair. This matters for gold because: • A hawkish-leaning Fed Chair pick typically strengthens USD and weighs on gold. • Markets may price in tighter policy expectations, increasing short-term bearish pressure. • Political volatility ahead of the official announcement often triggers liquidity grabs on both sides. With sentiment shifting toward a stronger USD, gold is positioned for classic SMC-style sweeps around key premium and discount zones. 🔎 Technical Analysis (1H – Smart Money Structure) • Market Structure Price has tapped into a minor premium zone and is showing early rejection signs. Below, the 4140–4138 area aligns with intraday demand and the origin of recent displacement. • Premium Sell Zone (1H Supply) 4210 – 4212 • Sits above current buy-side liquidity • Clear premium relative to intraday structure • High-probability sweep zone before any downside displacement • SL region: 4220 liquidity pocket • Discount Buy Zone (1H Demand) 4140 – 4138 • Previous CHoCH origin • Aligns with discount retracement • Confluence with unmitigated internal demand block • SL region: 4130 sell-side liquidity • Liquidity Map • Buy-side: 4212 → 4220 • Sell-side: 4138 → 4130 Expect the typical SMC sequence: Sweep → CHoCH → Displacement → Retest → Expansion. 🔴 Sell Setup – Premium Reaction Entry: 4210 – 4212 Stop-Loss: 4220 Take-Profit: → 4160 (reaction level) → 4145 (mid-range liquidity) → 4140–4138 (discount zone retest) 📌 Only activate after a liquidity sweep + bearish CHoCH on M5–M15. 🟢 Buy Setup – Discount Reaction Entry: 4140 – 4138 Stop-Loss: 4130 Take-Profit: → 4160 (intraday reaction) → 4185 (premium edge) → 4210 (liquidity sweep target) 📌 Valid only after sell-side sweep + bullish CHoCH. ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Headlines around the Fed Chair nomination may create sudden USD strength spikes—wait for structure shifts. • Avoid trading inside the chop zone 4150–4180 without clear displacement. • Treat today as a liquidity-driven session, not a directional trend day. 📝 Summary Gold is rotating between premium and discount zones as markets digest news of Kevin Hassett leading the Fed Chair race, a development that could tilt expectations toward firmer policy. Institutional players are likely to hunt liquidity above 4210 or below 4140 before committing to direction. Key Levels Today (26/11) 🔴 Sell Zone: 4210–4212 🟢 Buy Zone: 4140–4138 Prepare for: Accumulation → Sweep → Displacement → Retest → Target. 📍 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader