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2019 Pain Trade. Short Gold 1. we are only entering a correction phase when equity price / vaue of an asset depreciates and classic economic theory suggests that Gold is appreciated when asset prices starts to weaken. But the performance of metals (especially, Gold ) was not at par with the rate of Asset depreciation. Plus, in my view, we may see crypto assets which may take a charge in any sort of furether correction in the equyity markets because the yield in that asset class is mugh higher than in Gold . Along with that, Bond makret will again come to shine and mark its short term era. Although, I am going against the consensus, but, if I am wrong, I will loose small but if right, then the payout is huge.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RyanVarghese
1
2019 Pain Trade. Short Gold 1. we are only entering a correction phase when equity price /value of an asset depreciates and classic economic theory suggests that Gold is appreciated when asset prices starts to weaken. But the performance of metals (especially, Gold ) was not at par with the rate of Asset depreciation. Plus, in my view, we may see crypto assets which may take a charge in any sort of furether correction in the equyity markets because the yield in that asset class is mugh higher than in Gold . Along with that, Bond makret will again come to shine and mark its short term era. Although, I am going against the consensus, but, if I am wrong, I will loose small but if right, then the payout is huge.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RyanVarghese
2019 Pain Trade. Short Gold 1. we are only entering a correction phase when equity price / vaue of an asset depreciates and classic economic theory suggests that Gold is appreciated when asset prices starts to weaken. But the performance of metals (especially, Gold ) was not at par with the rate of Asset depreciation. Plus, in my view, we may see crypto assets which may take a charge in any sort of furether correction in the equyity markets because the yield in that asset class is mugh higher than in Gold . Along with that, Bond makret will again come to shine and mark its short term era. Although, I am going against the consensus, but, if I am wrong, I will loose small but if right, then the payout is huge.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RyanVarghese
Don't Be A Fool!!OUR CURRENT POSITION GOLD-SHORT-ENTRY-1325 TARGET-1230 STOP LOSS-1385 SILVER-SHORT-ENTRY-16.500 TARGET-14.700 STOP LOSS-17.300 ( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver reaches a very important support level, while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable). At the moment of writing this article/idea our full net short position in gold -0.14% , silver -0.06% and mining stocks is well justified from the measurement of risk and reward The precious metals market reversed and declined just as we’d been expecting it to and this year’s profits from the short positions have further increased. It seems that the best is yet to come, though. Today’s alert is going to be rather short as basically everything that we have written so far this week remains up-to-date and the most recent price performance of gold, silver and mining stocks confirms it. They all declined yesterday and are moving lower in today’s pre-market trading as well. Gold declined substantially and erased the previous several days in just one day. At the same time, gold closed below its 50-day moving average and the early-March high. Both are bearish developments and the sell signal from the Stochastic indicator serves as a confirmation. The price of silver declined as well and yesterday’s closing price was the second lowest that we saw this month. The analogy to silver’s price performance in late November 2017 remains intact and so do our comments on it: The particularly noteworthy thing on the white metal’s chart is the way in which we can view the self-similar pattern between now and back in November 2017. After the early-March volatile daily upswing, we thought that it was a direct analogy to the mid-November upswing that had been the final rally before the decline. And this might have been the case but based on the fundamental news (Powell-related-uncertainty and trade conflict) gold rallied and thus silver more or less had to rally as well. Consequently, the pattern changed, but not completely. The pattern still seems to be intact, but in a slightly different way. You see, there were actually three smaller tops in October and November 2017 before silver started to slide – if we count the early-November high as well. The early-March high was the second top and we’re seeing the third – and most likely final – top right now. In fact, it seems that we already saw it this week. Silver moved above the 50-day moving average and once again invalidated this move almost instantly. It’s moving lower also during today’s pre-market trading. In yesterday’s alert, we wrote that silver was not the only market that featured a self-similar pattern. There was also one in gold stocks. We wrote the following: In the case of the HUI Index, the thing that we see is a similarity between the current consolidation and the consolidation that we saw in November 2017, which confirms the analogy in the silver market. Back in late October 2017, gold miners broke below the rising support line that’s based on the late 2016 bottom and one of the 2017 bottoms. In February 2018, gold miners broke below the rising support line that’s based on the late 2016 bottom and another 2017 bottom. (…) in both cases after the initial rally and move back above the rising support line, the HUI declined once again and formed a new short-term low. Then we saw another rally, more or less to the previous high, and a subsequent decline. That’s the action that we saw most recently and that’s exactly what preceded the bigger decline in early December 2017. Naturally, the implications of this self-similar pattern are bearish.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
Just the Beginning OUR CURRENT POSITION GOLD-SHORT-ENTRY-1325 TARGET-1230 STOP LOSS-1385 SILVER-SHORT-ENTRY-16.500 TARGET-14.700 STOP LOSS-17.300( It doesn’t, means that we can't close or even reverse our position in the middle,if we get enough confirmation we can close like we did 3 times previously or even reverse the position if needed) At the moment of writing this article/idea our full net short position in gold,silver and mining stocks is well justified from the measurement of risk and reward The precious metals market reversed and declined just as we had been expecting it to,and our current year's profit from our short position further increased but it seems that this is just the beginning,Today's idea will be rather short as our previous thoughts on precious metals sector is well up-to-date Gold miners moved visibly lower yesterday and it seems that this fact confirms that the pattern remains intact. The implications continue to be bearish
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
Ignored us now face the consequences In short our additional full net short size in both of our precious metals is well justified from the reward and risk perspective at the time of writing this article/idea In our previous post we already mentioned many times that friday's session can be volatile and very tricky to predict and could affect gold and silver prices in short term and that seems to be the case for silver,The white metal declined at the start of the session but quickly erased all the downswing from it's initial low,we already mentioned that white metal could reach to about 16.600 and this level has already reached but the real question is silver about take a big decline same as in lat dec 2017? yes,that's very probable but here is a twist decline may not start immediately it can take some days to start,if you try to look at the lack of a visible rally in friday and compare it with proximity of the triangle apex reversal you will get your answer,in short we still may see a small rally in white metal in about 3-4 days before it plunges back we were and still are in a situation where white metal metal could decline sharply immediately or it could go up just a bit and then decline anyway.we don't think waiting for better prices in gold and silver will be an informed decision ,That's why we decided to increase our net short size in our portfolio management. in our last post we wrote which is still up to date In friday's intrday follow up,silver moved higher than its target level but gold didn't,it served a strong bearish sign as it was clear that silver is outperforming gold in a dramatic manner in short term,most of the time it helps to make big decline in white metal. session seems very similar to the mentioned nov 1 2017 session and implications therfore are bearish anyway mining stocks reversal-gold mining stocks moved much lower after the closing bell,thing to note is despite the rally and strength in S&P 500 It moved lower,really miners only had the strength for the intial rally,Before the closing bell bears had took control over the miners and bulls were exhausted, It's not happen very often when HUI index,miners and precious metals all generating the same signal,in short if you try to look at mining stock and precious metals it seems very likely that we are going to see big decline soon,only currency market is not cofirming our view at this point so it might postpone the decline for short term. Imagine the gold without usd you can't na? so let's jump right into our usd index the biggest factor which determines the prices of precious metals in near term,in our previous post we told that USD index was above its strong support level and big picture is remained bullish,USD index didn't even touched its support level but instead it moved higher,so did usd index already made its final bottom? Still as a portfolio manager/ trader we try to think without being attached to our current position so we could form a unbiased perspective on precious metal market what could go wrong-Breakdown below the 89.300 level will complete a short term head and shoulders pattern and this pushes prices down to feb low,it will means that 87.600 will be the next target but is it possible? in trading anything can but the probability is much-much lower as the multiple long term resistance level are present around the jan and feb low,on a short term head and shoulders pattern and this pushes prices down to feb low,on a short term basis a move below 89.300 can precide a quick decline to about 88.70,well this is a less likely outcome,the most probable outcome will be that we could see a rally above 91.20 which will precides a big rally to almost 94,this will be a very critical sign that small breakdown is invalidated below the very long term declining resistance overall our full net short position is justified at the time of publishing this article
FX_IDC:XAGUSDShort
by NeerajPandey