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USDJPY jumps 100 pips even as BoJ exits negative-rate policyUSDJPY refreshes a two-week high during a six-day uptrend even as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) takes a historical decision to end the Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP), as well as the Yield Curve Control (YCC). It’s worth noting, however, that such a move was widely anticipated and hence, a “sell the fact” reaction appeared on the chart. However, a three-week-old falling resistance line surrounding the 150.00 psychological magnet and the overbought RSI (14) conditions seem to challenge the Yen pair buyers. Even if the quote manages to cross the 150.00 hurdle, a slightly downward-sloping trend line from mid-February, near 150.80 at the latest, quickly followed by the 151.00 round figure, will challenge the bulls afterward. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s pullback appears widely expected and hence the short-term sellers can aim for the 149.20-15 support confluence comprising the 100 and 200 SMAs. However, a one-week-old rising support line surrounding 148.85 could test the Yen pair sellers afterward. In a case where the bears keep the reins past 148.85, the February 07 swing low of around 147.60 and the current monthly bottom of 146.48 will be in the spotlight. Overall, the USDJPY pair’s immediate reaction to the BoJ’s decision appears less logical and is likely to be reversed. However, Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision will be the key in determining the same.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls seem tiring, bears need rising wedge confirmationUSDJPY’s U-turn from an eight-month high has significance for the sellers as it reverses from a convergence of the rising wedge bearish chart pattern’s top-line and a 10-month-old horizontal resistance area. Not only that, but the overbought RSI also suggests the end of a bullish reign. The same signals the Yen pair’s pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022 to January 2023 downturn, near 142.50. However, the bears need more than that to retake control, which in turn highlights a joint of the 21-EMA and bottom line of the stated wedge, close to 141.90 by the press time. Following that, the 140.00 round figure and March’s peak of 137.90 could become the seller’s favorite. Though, there will be a bumpy road for the Yen pair bears past 137.90 as lows marked in March and in January, respectively near 129.65 and 127.20, will be tough nuts to crack before directing the quote to the rising wedge confirmation’s theoretical target of 130.40 and then to the 130.00 round figure. On the contrary, the USDJPY pair’s run-up beyond the aforementioned immediate resistance confluence, near 145.00-10, could aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 146.70 and then to the late October 2022 peak of around 148.85. Additionally acting as an important upside filter is the 150.00 round figure. It’s worth noting that the RSI conditions can keep challenging the Yen pair buyers on their way to the north while targeting the previous yearly top of around 152.00. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness fresh downside but a clear break of the 141.90 support is a must for sellers to retake control.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls want to believe in BoJ’s defense of easy money poliBe it the triangle breakout or the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials’ dovish signals ahead of the monetary policy announcements, not to forget the Fed’s hawkish pause, the USDJPY pair has all that’s needed to ride north. However, the overbought RSI conditions suggest a gradual run-up with intermediate pullbacks. That said, the aforementioned two-week-old symmetrical triangle’s top line, close to 140.20, appears immediate support for the Yen pair. Following that, the 140.00 round figure and the stated triangle’s bottom line surrounding 139.00 can challenge the pair sellers. It’s worth noting that the buyers are likely to remain unshaken beyond the 200-SMA support of 138.00, a break of which could give rise to short-term setbacks for the optimists. Meanwhile, the 141.00 round figure precedes the latest peak of around 141.50 to guard the immediate upside of the USDJPY pair during its fresh rebound. In a case where the BoJ manages to defend the policy doves, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its May 16 to June 01 moves, near 141.70, precedes the 142.00 threshold and the 78.6% FE level around 142.55 to challenge the Yen pair bulls. Above all, an upward-sloping support resistance line from early May, at 143.00 by the press time, seems a tough nut to crack for the buyers to crack.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bears keep driver’s seat despite BoJ-led rallyDespite rising nearly 300 pips following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) inaction, the USDJPY pair remains on the bear’s radar as it is yet to cross a four-month-long descending trend line resistance, around 131.10-15 by the press time. That said, the RSI’s rebound from the conditions also intraday buyers. It’s worth noting that the 50-DMA pierces the 200-DMA from above and portrays a bear cross on the daily chart, which in turn suggests the quote’s further downside unless the pair rises past the 200-DMA hurdle surrounding 136.65. Alternatively, lows marked during May 2022 surrounding 126.35 precede the 125.00 threshold to challenge USDJPY bears, not to forget the oversold RSI conditions. In a case where the pair bears ignore RSI conditions and dominate past 125.00, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the late March low, respectively around 122.45 and 121.30, could act as the last defenses of the buyers before directing them to the February 2022 bottom of 114.40. Overall, the bear cross on the daily chart contrasts the BoJ’s inaction and keeps sellers hopeful.
by MTradingGlobal