USDCHF (1D)The chart provided is a daily price chart of the USD/CHF (U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc) currency pair. It includes various technical analysis elements that suggest a bearish outlook. Here’s a detailed description of the analysis:
Trend Analysis
1. **Uptrend Channel (Early 2024 - April 2024)**:
- The price was initially in an upward channel, making a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). This indicates a strong uptrend.
2. **Break of Uptrend Channel**:
- The price eventually broke out of the upward channel to the downside, indicating a potential reversal or end of the uptrend.
Key Levels
1. **Horizontal Resistance and Support**:
- **Resistance at 0.915**: This level was tested multiple times as shown by the HH in March and April but failed to break significantly higher.
- **Support at 0.89**: This level has acted as support recently, as indicated by the horizontal black line.
2. **Red Zones (Supply Zones)**:
- These are areas where selling pressure has previously been strong enough to push the price down. The chart shows two such zones, one around 0.905 and another around 0.91.
Price Action and Pattern
1. **Highs and Lows**:
- **Lower Highs (LH)**: After the initial uptrend, the price started making lower highs, indicating a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.
- **Lower Low (LL)**: The recent price action has also made a lower low, confirming a bearish trend.
2. **Bearish Rejection**:
- The price attempted to move higher but was rejected at the red supply zones, indicating strong selling pressure.
**Future Price Movement (Forecast)**
1. **Bearish Scenario**:
- The chart includes two potential bearish scenarios:
- **First Scenario**: The price could move up to retest the nearest supply zone (around 0.905) and then continue downwards, breaking the 0.89 support level.
- **Second Scenario**: If the price moves slightly higher to the second supply zone (around 0.91), it might face strong resistance again and continue its downward movement, potentially breaking the 0.89 support level.
Summary
- The chart indicates a transition from an uptrend to a bearish trend with the price making lower highs and lower lows.
- The key support level at 0.89 is crucial; a break below this level could signal further downside.
- The supply zones (red areas) are expected to act as strong resistance, potentially pushing the price lower.
This analysis suggests caution for bullish traders and presents potential short opportunities if the price fails to break above the resistance zones and continues to exhibit bearish characteristics.
