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NZDCAD View! Intraday!The Bank of Canada (BoC) voted to cut interest rates at its June meeting from 5% to 4.75%, relying on its improved confidence that inflation is heading lower. The BoC highlighted the declining three-month measure of core inflation as one of the indications that CPI is heading lower but Governor Tiff Macklem also issued caution that the further progress is likely to be uneven and risks remain. The main risks to the inflation outlook include rising wage growth, the potential for escalating global tensions and the threat of house prices rising faster than anticipated.
Short
by FXBANkthe8055
CADJPY View!The risk around Friday's US non-farm payrolls number is to the downside and sales of CADJPY are likely to be the most interesting and more rewarding trades in this scenario, according to Spectra Markets' Brent Donnelly. "I don't think there is a major skew to FX or bond positioning going into NFP. Both USD bulls and USD bears continue to dabble tentatively, and then get rinsed. Over and over," said Donnelly, president at Spectra Markets and a veteran FX trader. "With big picture carry momentum halted by the MXN move, and yields already softening substantially this week, the downside in CADJPY and USDJPY on a weak release are most interesting. CADJPY looks 200 points too high to me," he added.
Long
by FXBANkthe8055
CADJPY View!The risk around Friday's US non-farm payrolls number is to the downside and sales of CADJPY are likely to be the most interesting and more rewarding trades in this scenario, according to Spectra Markets' Brent Donnelly. "I don't think there is a major skew to FX or bond positioning going into NFP. Both USD bulls and USD bears continue to dabble tentatively, and then get rinsed. Over and over," said Donnelly, president at Spectra Markets and a veteran FX trader. "With big picture carry momentum halted by the MXN move, and yields already softening substantially this week, the downside in CADJPY and USDJPY on a weak release are most interesting. CADJPY looks 200 points too high to me," he added.
Long
by FXBANkthe8055
GBPUSD sellers push price below risingThe GBPUSD moved higher yesterday, reaching its highest level since July 18, 2023, with a peak at 1.3043 before slowing. This move pushed the price above the July 28 high of 1.2995 and the psychological resistance at 1.3000. Today, however, the price has rotated lower, falling back below both the 1.3000 and 1.2995 levels, indicating a weakening in the bulls' control. Recently, the price broke below the rising 100-hour MA (currently at 1.29819). Previously, on July 9 and July 10, the price dipped below this MA but quickly rebounded. The key question today is whether the price can stay below this MA for a longer period and continue to decline.
by FXBANkthe8055
Impending Golden Cross keeps EURUSD bulls hopeful ahead of ECBEURUSD retreats from the highest level in four months as traders await monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB) early Thursday. In doing so, the Euro pair justifies the overbought RSI conditions. However, a successful break of a descending resistance line stretched from early January, now immediate support near 1.0890, joins the bullish MACD signals to keep the buyers hopeful. Even if the quote drops beneath 1.0890 resistance-turned-support, a convergence of the 50-SMA and 200-SMA, close to 1.0810-05, will be a tough nut to crack for the bears. It’s worth mentioning that the 50-SMA is approaching the 200-SMA from below and portrays a bullish moving average crossover called “Golden Cross”, which in turn suggests further upside of the major currency pair. Meanwhile, EURUSD bulls can aim for the 1.0980-1.1010 resistance zone during a fresh upside. Following that, 1.1040 and the 1.1100 threshold may act as intermediate halts while directing buyers toward the late 2023 peak of 1.1140. In a case where the Euro pair remains firmer past 1.1140, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the previous yearly high of 1.1275 and then to the year 2022 top surrounding 1.1495 can’t be ruled out. Overall, EURUSD remains in the upward trajectory despite the pre-ECB pullback. However, the upside room appears limited unless the quote offers a daily closing beyond 1.1010. It should be observed that the ECB is likely to keep the monetary policy unchanged but bears are waiting for the signals of further rate cuts in 2024.
by MTradingGlobal
technical look at the EURUSDFor the EURUSD, it based yesterday at the 50% midpoint of the move down from the December 2023 high (see video yesterday "EURUSD bounces off the 50% midpoint, giving the buyers the "go-ahead" to push higher"). That gave traders the go-ahead to push higher and indeed the price pushed higher today. The move to the upside has now extended by the 61.8% retracement at 1.0933 and tests the high going back to March 21 at 1.0942. Above that level and chairs aside to target the other high prices from March at 1.0963 and 1.0981.
Short
by FXBANkthe8055
CADJPY View! 27.58% of traders are net-long Short-to-long ratio: 2.63 to 1 Net-long positions: +1.63% daily, +21.43% weekly Net-short positions: +1.45% daily, -13.25% weekly While the contrarian view suggests continued GBP/JPY price increases due to net-short positioning, recent sentiment changes warrant caution. The significant weekly increase in long positions and decrease in short positions may signal a potential downward price reversal, despite the overall net-short market stance.
Short
by FXBANkthe8055
JAPANESE YEN SENTIMENT ANALYSISGBP/JPY RETAIL TRADER DATA: 27.58% of traders are net-long Short-to-long ratio: 2.63 to 1 Net-long positions: +1.63% daily, +21.43% weekly Net-short positions: +1.45% daily, -13.25% weekly While the contrarian view suggests continued GBP/JPY price increases due to net-short positioning, recent sentiment changes warrant caution. The significant weekly increase in long positions and decrease in short positions may signal a potential downward price reversal, despite the overall net-short market stance.
Short
by FXBANkthe8055
GBPUSD bulls run out of steam near 1.3000, UK inflation eyedGBPUSD seesaws at the highest level in a year ahead of the UK’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June. In doing so, the Cable pair justifies the overbought RSI (14) line as buyers struggle around a one-year-old horizontal resistance zone, close to 1.2995-3000. It’s worth noting, however, that the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beyond a downward-sloping resistance line from July 2023, now support around 1.2840, keeps the bulls hopeful. Even if the pair drops beneath the 1.2840 resistance-turned-support, the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2627 will be the last defense of the bulls. It should be observed that the 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the quote’s July-October 2023 downturn, respectively near 1.2910 and 1.2720, are additional downside filters to watch during the bear run. Alternatively, GBPUSD bulls need validation from the upbeat UK inflation clues and the 1.2995-3000 upside hurdle to keep the reins. Following that, the Pound Sterling could rise toward the previous yearly high of 1.3142. However, the 1.3100 threshold may act as an intermediate halt during the rise. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.3142, the late 2021 swing low of around 1.3150-55 and the 1.3200 round figure can test the bulls before directing them toward the January 2022 low of near 1.3355. Overall, GBPUSD appears overdue for a pullback but the bullish trend could remain intact.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPJPY Claims to Historic high The GBPJPY pair has rallied to a new 16-year high, currently trading around 205.644. This surge follows better-than-expected UK GDP data, which has bolstered the Pound Sterling. The Bank of England's cautious approach to cutting interest rates adds further support to this bullish momentum. On the other hand, despite a significant rise in Japan's PPI inflation in June, the Bank of Japan is not expected to raise rates aggressively, weighing on the Yen. Key levels to watch include a resistance zone between 206.601 and 206.889, with potential support around 204.304 in case of a correction. Analysts suggest the pair could continue its upward trend, potentially reaching 210 or higher. Watch for any signs of intervention from the Bank of Japan, which could introduce short-term volatility.
Long
by Karnatrader
EURUSD View! Stocks, dollar gain after US retail sales dataS&P 500 up in early trading Treasury yields slip Oil prices fall World stock indexes mostly rose and the U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday after solid U.S. retail sales signalled resilience in the economy. Data released on Tuesday showed retail sales unchanged in June from a May reading that was higher than initially estimated. Markets were still fully pricing in a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) by the Fed at its September meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. The MSCI All-World index EURONEXT:IACWI rose 1.12 points, or 0.14%, to 829.85.
Short
by FXBANkthe8055