China increase 67% mi Money supply it impacts nagative. ? China’s decision to increase its cash supply by 67% in just one month, reaching $6.76 trillion, raises serious concerns about the state of its economy. Such a massive liquidity injection suggests that the Chinese government is attempting to cover a growing economic hole, likely caused by a combination of structural weaknesses, financial instability, and declining growth.
One of the major factors behind this move is China’s struggling real estate sector, which has been in crisis since the collapse of major developers like Evergrande and Country Garden. The sector, which once contributed nearly 30% to China’s GDP, is now facing a liquidity crunch, falling property prices, and a loss of investor confidence. Additionally, declining consumer demand and a slowdown in industrial production have further weakened economic growth. The rise in local government debt, which is estimated to be in the trillions, has also put pressure on policymakers to inject liquidity into the system.
However, such an aggressive expansion of cash supply comes with risks. Increasing money supply at such a rapid pace can lead to inflationary pressures and potential devaluation of the Chinese yuan. If confidence in China’s financial stability erodes, it could lead to capital outflows, further straining the economy. From a global perspective, this move signals economic distress and could negatively impact worldwide markets. Investors may become cautious about China’s financial health, leading to reduced foreign investments and market volatility.
Overall, China’s sudden cash injection is a sign of deeper economic troubles rather than a sign of strength. While it may provide short-term relief, the long-term consequences could include inflation, financial instability, and a ripple effect on global markets. This move suggests that China may be bracing for a significant economic downturn in the near future.
Economy
Japan GSP YOY - How can we predict next Quarter changeJapan GDP Year on Year
Today tried to predict the quarter by quarter change, But we find it difficult by existing model of chart prediction.
How are we going to predict the Next quarter GDP growth change ? By using EW ? not possible ? Then ?
Ans: Trading Economics' global macro models
are used to make forecasts for economic indicators.
These models use a variety of factors, including analysts' expectations,
correlations between countries, and logical relationships between indicators
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Japan expanded 1.20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the same quarter of the previous year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Japan averaged 1.71 percent from 1981 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 9.40 percent in the first quarter of 1988 and a record low of -9.70 percent in the second quarter of 2020.
source: Cabinet Office, Japan
Big Picture of US Interest RateBig Picture of US Interest Rate
US Interest rate seems to be waiting for a steep rise, possibly due to some story or event which may occur soon.
For the time being during next few months, US Interest rate seems to go down 1 point before waiting for an event to trigger for it's increase ?
Big picture of India GDPBig picture of India GDP
Making EW for India GDP was not clear enough. So Let us just analye based on trend lines.
India GDP seems to stay around 5 to 10 average during month wise changes.
Current month GDP hovers around 5.4. We expect it to hove another 1 month around 5 and then move upwards till 10 month wise. But year wise average may be 7-8 in the coming time.
Big picture of India Inflation Rate
India inflation could be making a triangle ( leg 4 ) and leg 5 pending. Possibly it will go down to a low point and then some changes will make it to move up to create 9ish value.
The low point B can be in near future or may be 1.5 years ahead.
Note : There are assumptions in making the structure.
An Rising Question of " War " in Mind I have seen Many Analyst in my Life , they fear talking truth
The chart suggest we will likely to enter in war type situation, where our reserve may get
depilated faster manner ,
In other words we don't need so much of Dollar Reserve if we are heading towards
Independent INR based Global Currency ,
There will be some Issue in currency war and there will be actual war which is sitting as
hotspot since 2020
which one it will be i have no idea , in Dec 2024 mostly it will clear the air
This entire view is my personal view one should not take it seriously in case they any other views
Thanks
When Inflation levels drop FMCG markets Peak OutWhen Inflation levels drop FMCG markets Peak Out.
Inflation significantly impacts the Indian Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) market in several ways:
Increased Input Costs: Inflation drives up the prices of raw materials like oils, grains, and packaging materials. For instance, the wholesale price index for oils and fats increased by 13% in a recent quarter1.
Price Hikes: To cope with rising input costs, FMCG companies often increase the prices of their products. This can lead to reduced consumer demand as people become more price-sensitive2.
Shrinkflation: Some companies resort to “shrinkflation,” where they reduce the quantity of the product while maintaining the same price. This tactic helps manage costs without overtly raising prices2.
Reduced Consumption: High inflation can squeeze consumers’ disposable income, leading to a decrease in the consumption of non-essential FMCG products. This was evident when FMCG sales volumes fell by 1.1% in a recent quarter3.
Profit Margins: Despite the challenges, some FMCG companies have managed to maintain or even increase their profit margins by optimizing costs and improving operational efficiencies1.
Overall, while inflation poses challenges, the FMCG sector continues to adapt through various strategies to sustain growth and profitability.
Fud fund effective rate analysis corelation with crash As per the history fed fund effective rate are going down Market down 40% to 60% . 2024 mid fed start a rate cut it is a bearish signal of l off global market according to history because 2000 crash 2008 2020 crash are right according to fed fund effective rate down fall
Unemployment in various countriesThe unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of unemployed workers in the total labor force. The unemployment rate includes workers who currently do not work, although they can do so. For 2021, the global unemployment rate is estimated to be between 6.3-6.5%, depending upon the source. The unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, meaning it responds (rises and falls) to changing economic conditions rather than influencing or predicting them. When the economy grows at a healthy rate, the job market is plentiful and the unemployment rate drops. When the economy is experiencing a recession or other turbulence, the job market tends to retract and the unemployment rate rises in response
Gold Reserves of major countriesA gold reserve is the gold held by a national central bank, intended mainly as a guarantee to redeem promises to pay depositors, note holders (e.g. paper money), or trading peers, during the eras of the gold standard, and also as a store of value, or to support the value of the national currency.
The World Gold Council estimates that all the gold ever mined, and that is accounted for, totalled 190,040 metric tons in 2019 but other independent estimates vary by as much as 20%. At a price of US$1,250 per troy ounce ($40 per gram), reached on 16 August 2017, one metric ton of gold has a value of approximately $40.2 million. The total value of all gold ever mined, and that is accounted for, would exceed $7.5 trillion at that valuation and using WGC 2017 estimates.
GDP comparison of major countriesGross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time period by a country or countries. GDP is most often used by the government of a single country to measure its economic health. Due to its complex and subjective nature, this measure is often revised before being considered a reliable indicator.
Balance of trade of various counntriesThe balance of trade, commercial balance, or net exports (sometimes symbolized as NX), is the difference between the monetary value of a nation's exports and imports over a certain time period. Sometimes a distinction is made between a balance of trade for goods versus one for services. The balance of trade measures a flow of exports and imports over a given period of time. The notion of the balance of trade does not mean that exports and imports are "in balance" with each other.
Velocity of moneyThe velocity of money measures the number of times that the average unit of currency is used to purchase goods and services within a given time period. The concept relates the size of economic activity to a given money supply, and the speed of money exchange is one of the variables that determine inflation. The measure of the velocity of money is usually the ratio of the gross national product (GNP) to a country's money supply.
If the velocity of money is increasing, then transactions are occurring between individuals more frequently. The velocity of money changes over time and is influenced by a variety of factors.
Because of the nature of financial transactions, the velocity of money cannot be determined empirically.