Bluntpiloot

Sharktank - Pi Cycle Prediction

The Pi Cycle indicator has called tops in Bitcoin quite accurately. Assuming history repeats itself, knowledge about when it might happen again could benefit you.

The indicator is fairly simple:
- A daily moving average of 350 ("long_ma" in script)
- A daily moving average of 111 ("short_ma" in script)

The value of the long moving average is multiplied by two. This way the longer moving average appears above the shorter one .

When the shorter one (orange colored) crosses above the longer (green colored) one , it could mean the top is in.

These moving averages rise at a certain rate. Using these rates we could try to estimate a possible crossover moment. That's exactly what this indicator does! It gives the user a prediction of when a crossover might happen.

Special thanks to:
- Ninorigo, for making his indicator public. This one uses his as a starting point.
- The_Caretaker, for coming up with this idea about calling a top. Yet, his is more price-based, this one is more time-based.
Release Notes: Inputs have been updated to incorporate Pine v4 March 2021 updates. Inputs now feature tooltips for additional information and are sorted by groups.

An unused input had been removed.

Previous version of the indicator only looked at the increase of the moving averages during the last day and extrapolated the increase. This extrapolation gave the predicted cross date. This newer version still features that approach, but also added the possibility to smooth out the increase. This way the extrapolation is not solely based on the moving average increase during the last day, but used the increase of the past three (default, but users can change this) days.

The extrapolation is shown using two lines.

Feature to show how many days are left until the cross.
Release Notes: Updated the TradingView script image shown at the top.
Open-source script

In true TradingView spirit, the author of this script has published it open-source, so traders can understand and verify it. Cheers to the author! You may use it for free, but reuse of this code in a publication is governed by House Rules. You can favorite it to use it on a chart.

Want to use this script on a chart?

Comments

The indicator is not taking the pandemic into account. We had a huge reset in March, while all other indicators that historically predict Bitcoin tops are not even close. if we have a top in April, then I believe we are looking at a 2013 type of market with a mini bear and two bull runs.
+1 Reply
Bluntpiloot CryptoDouche
@CryptoDouche, I would totally agree.
Reply
You're a legend bro no cap
+1 Reply
Why trust almost pi which actually isn’t even almost pi when you can trust actual Fibonacci . The question is will this cherry picked chart prevail or hardcore math that has stood the test of centuries and predicts a price much more plausible which the current economic drop back. If any one wants to sell I’ll be buying your BTC. You’re stupid if you sell because of pi cycle indicator. There are reasons to sell. This not one of them.

https://www.coindesk.com/bloomberg-bitcoin-400k-prediction
Reply
Ok let me REKT this:

1) PI shouldn’t be in the name because it’s almost PI. Not just that it is not even PI. You are comparing 700 to 111. The problem is PI is special. Fibonacci is special. Almost PI isn’t and 700/111 is not even close.

2) As another commenter noted. This indicator flashed warnings previously however under completely different backdrops economically. What previously this indicator was able to do in evaluating a market primarily made up of retail investors will not be able to also evaluate a market now made up mainly of institutional investors now. Not just this but another difference this time is miners don’t have to sell their bitcoin they are mining but instead can issue stock since more have gone public and since more are now a larger percentage of miners are now raising funds in alternative ways than in the past.

All this simply is are two moving average and then coming together signify more recent weakness in bullishness which speaks volumes to this bull market taking a deep breath. What the fundamentals are is institutional investors are still buying. Miners are now HODLing. The fed is continuing East money. And our Congress is still passing massive spending bills. As has happened with other moving averages they can “touch” and this can mark the start of the next leg higher.

Given what’s happening in reality I would take this as an indication to buy and not sell.
Reply
Bluntpiloot Kingstevieb
@Kingstevieb, I absolutely don't understand where this is coming from.

First of all: I didn't come up with this nor its name.

Second: Pi cycle is a joke (of course). Nobody in their right mind would trade it. It was just a funny coincidence when it came to tops in the past. That's all this "indicator" is.

And yes, I know what you're going to respond: "but you said something else with the first sentence of the description of the indicator". Yes, I know. TradingView forces script publishers to write gibberish. I had to come up with some catchy, hollow story.
Reply
This is simply amazing. Who is the creator of this indicator? It shows 16th of April for the top, but the Astro charts are more stronger for the 22-25th of March.
Is there more explanations or a video about the indicator? Is it working for other coins, like ETH?
thanks a lot
Reply
Bluntpiloot maleshkov
@maleshkov, Only BTCUSD. Only daily timeframe. Video explainer can be found on Krown's Crypto Cave YouTube channel.
Reply
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