Quantitative Price Forecasting - The Quant Science

thequantscience Updated   
This script is a quantitative price forecasting indicator that forecasts price changes for a given asset.

The model aims to forecast future prices by analyzing past data within a selected time period. Mathematical probability is used to calculate whether starting from time X can lead to reaching prices Y1 and Y2. In this context, X represents the current selected time period, Y1 represents the selected percentage decrease, and Y2 represents the selected percentage increase. The probabilities are estimated using the simple average.

The simple average is displayed on the chart, showing in red the periods where the price is below the average and in green the periods where the price is above the average.

This powerful tool not only provides forecasts of future prices but also calculates the distribution of variations around the average. It then takes this information and creates an estimate of the average price variation around the simple average.

Using a mean-reverting logic, buying and selling opportunities are highlighted.

We recommend turning off the display of bars on your chart for a better experience when using this indicator.

Unlock the full potential of your trading strategy with our powerful indicator. By analyzing past price data, it provides accurate forecasts and calculates the probability of reaching specific price targets. Its mean-reverting logic highlights buying and selling opportunities, while the simple moving average displayed on the chart shows periods where the price is above or below the average. Additionally, it estimates the average variation of price around the simple average, giving you valuable insights into price movements. Don't miss out on this valuable tool that can take your trading to the next level
Release Notes:
Added a function to adjust the average deviation calculation. Now the indicator modify the deviation data by calculating only the time period selected by the user interface.

Open-source script

In true TradingView spirit, the author of this script has published it open-source, so traders can understand and verify it. Cheers to the author! You may use it for free, but reuse of this code in a publication is governed by House Rules. You can favorite it to use it on a chart.


The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

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