Modified Mannarino Market Risk Indicator & Bubbles
Modified Mannarino Market Risk Indicator
MMRI = DXY * 10Y Yield
MMMRI = MMRI * (Debt/GDP)
Color Indicators
Green ~ Low Risk
Yellow - Mod Risk
Red - High Risk
Purple - Extreme Risk
Bubbles Formula (MMMRI_DK)
DXY*(10Y + FED Rate)* (Shiller P/E Ratio) * (Warren Buffet Indicator)*(Debt/GDP) /1.61
Similar to the Shiller P/E Ratio - you need to look back to see where the bubbles were. The difference between the Dot Com bubble and subsequent ones is that we now have QE which is why I included the FED Rate + 10Y.
Color Indicators
Green ~ Low Risk
Yellow - Mod Risk
Red - High Risk
Purple - Extreme Risk
Future Bubbles Formula (MMMRI_DK_Fut)
DXY*(10Y + Future FED Rate)* (Shiller P/E Ratio) * (Warren Buffet Indicator)*(Debt/GDP) /1.61
Assumes that the 10Y is fixed but what is important is that you will get an idea on when the system may pop.
Cycles
Lankou Shad helperdisplay values of the current price x2 and x4 and /2, /4
it permit to compare the security values to its past and see if x2 is nearly probable are totally out of reach, he same for /2 of price.
It can be used for Sell Half At Double strategy: SHAD.
NY Session in REDNY is Red from UK time 1200 to 1800.
The rest is white, helps distinguish me NY with non NY since I like trading NY session
Bar CountBar Count Indicator for TradingView. It will label bars with numbers underneath which is awesome when sharing analysis or waiting for bars 7 (50% chance), 12 (70% chance), and 18 (90% chance) looking for higher probability for the High or Low of the day to have formed.
BTC Risk Metric - Estimates the risk of BTC price versus the USD
- To be used on the daily timeframe
- Works best on a BTC pair that has a lot of bars, e.g. The Bitcoin All Time History Index
- 0 is the lowest risk, 1 is the highest risk
- Historically, buying when the risk was low and selling when the risk was high would have yielded good ROI
- The risk bands are 0.1 in width and are highlighted on the plot
Typical Strategy:
- weighted DCA into the market when risk <0.5, do nothing between 0.5-0.6 and weighted DCA out of the market when risk >0.6
- x = buy amount per DCA interval
- y = 1/10th total BTC held by the user
- if 0 ≤ Risk < 0.1 then buy 5x
- if 0.1 ≤ Risk < 0.2 then buy 4x
- if 0.2 ≤ Risk < 0.3 then buy 3x
- if 0.3 ≤ Risk < 0.4 then buy 2x
- if 0.4 ≤ Risk < 0.5 then buy x
- if 0.5 ≤ Risk < 0.6 then do nothing
- if 0.6 ≤ Risk < 0.7 then sell y
- if 0.7 ≤ Risk < 0.8 then sell 2y
- if 0.8 ≤ Risk < 0.9 then sell 3y
- if 0.9 ≤ Risk ≤ 1.0 then sell 4y
Ehlers Cycle Period [CC]The Cycle Period was created by John Ehlers and this is yet another version that shows how to calculate the current cycle period which is the approximate amount of days between a current peak or valley and the next peak or valley. I would not recommend this for trading since it is more for informational use only but I would try experimenting with this output to be used with another indicator as an input length. I have included strong buy and sell signals in addition to normal ones so strong signals are darker in color and normal signals are lighter in color.
Let me know if there are any other scripts you would like to see me publish!
Ehlers Cycle Amplitude [CC]The Cycle Amplitude was created by John Ehlers (Trend Modes and Cycle Modes) and this indicator wasn't meant to give buy and sell signals by itself but I'm publishing this open source script in case someone comes up with a cool way to use this indicator for buy and sell signals. This indicator essentially tells you the distance between the peaks from the Cycle BandPass Filter and I will be including the last script tomorrow most likely. I'm reusing the same exact buy and sell signals from the cycle bandpass filter so if you have any questions then feel free to refer to the link I posted.
Let me know if there are any other scripts you would like to see me publish!
Ehlers Cycle BandPass Filter [CC]The Cycle BandPass Filter was created by John Ehlers (Cycle Modes and Trend Modes) and this is an alternate to the default BandPass Filter by changing some settings. This will be another series I will be introducing showing some indicators created by Ehlers and that didn't get much attention. This identifies the underlying cycle in the price data and these indicators aren't very common so I want to introduce more of these to tv. Buying and selling with these indicators can be a bit tricky but overall what Ehlers recommends is to buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point to capture the underlying cycle. I have included strong buy and sell signals as darker colors and normal signals as lighter colors. Buy when the line turns green and sell when it turns red.
Let me know if there are any other scripts you would like to see me publish!
Financial Astrology Juno LongitudeJuno is the 4th largest object in terms of mass in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, this asteroid is not widely used by financial astrologers but as was demonstrated in our research with Ceres and Vesta, the objects in the asteroid belt seems to be very important for the trend forecast. The zodiacal energy of this objects cannot be ignored for an accurate analysis. Based in BTCUSD historical price data we calculated the daily trend (buy/sell) during the periods where Juno was transiting across different zodiac signs and we found some significant patterns:
INDEX:BTCUSD
Bullish zodiac signs
From 387 days located in Scorpio, price increased 62% of the days.
From 316 days located in Capricorn, price increased 64% of the days.
From 300 days located in Sagittarius, price increased 56% of the days.
From 435 days located in Libra, price increased 55% of the days.
Bearish zodiac signs
From 200 days located in Taurus, price decreased 56% of the days.
From 152 days located in Virgo, price decreased 58% of the days.
Note: The Juno longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Ehlers Modified Relative Strength Index [CC]The Modified Relative Strength Index was created by John Ehlers (Cycle Analytics For Traders pgs 87-88) and this is a typical RSI that uses his roofing filter as the input. He smooths it with his own super smoother filter to provide signals. This indicator is extremely reactive and works in cycles so keep that in mind. I haven't been able to come up with clear buy and sell signals at this point so let me know if you any suggestions but I'm publishing the code to complete my goal of publishing all of his work one day. I will be publishing a bunch of Ehlers scripts in the next few weeks so stay tuned. What I recommend for buy and sell signals at this point are to buy when the indicator goes below the oversold line and starts going up and sell when the indicator goes below the oversold line a second time. Vice versa for sell signals.
Let me know if there are any other scripts you would like to see me publish!
Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) FilterDear friends!
I'm happy to present an implementation of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm. The script uses the FFT procedure to decompose the input time series into its cyclical constituents, in other words, its frequency components , and convert it back to the time domain with modified frequency content, that is, to filter it.
Input Description and Usage
Source and Length :
Indicates where the data comes from and the size of the lookback window used to build the dataset.
Standardize Input Dataset :
If enabled, the dataset is preprocessed by subtracting its mean and normalizing the result by the standard deviation, which is sometimes useful when analyzing seasonalities. This procedure is not recommended when using the FFT filter for smoothing (see below), as it will not preserve the average of the dataset.
Show Frequency-Domain Power Spectrum :
When enabled, the results of Fourier analysis (for the last price bar!) are plotted as a frequency-domain power spectrum , where “power” is a measure of the significance of the component in the dataset. In the spectrum, lower frequencies (longer cycles) are on the right, higher frequencies are on the left. The graph does not display the 0th component, which contains only information about the mean value. Frequency components that are allowed to pass through the filter (see below) are highlighted in magenta .
Dominant Cycles, Rows :
If this option is activated, the periods and relative powers of several dominant cyclical components that is, those that have a higher power, are listed in the table. The number of the component in the power spectrum (N) is shown in the first column. The number of rows in the table is defined by the user.
Show Inverse Fourier Transform (Filtered) :
When enabled, the reconstructed and filtered time-domain dataset (for the last price bar!) is displayed.
Apply FFT Filter in a Moving Window :
When enabled, the FFT filter with the same parameters is applied to each bar. The last data point of the reconstructed and filtered dataset is used to build a new time series. For example, by getting rid of high-frequency noise, the FFT filter can make the data smoother. By removing slowly evolving low-frequency components (including non-periodic constituents), one can reveal and analyze shorter cycles. Since filtering is done in real-time in a moving window (similar to the moving average), the modified data can potentially be used as part of a strategy and be subjected to other technical indicators.
Lowest Allowed N :
Indicates the number of the lowest frequency component used in the reconstructed time series.
Highest Allowed N :
Indicates the number of the highest frequency component used in the reconstructed time series.
Filtering Time Range block:
Specifies the time range over which real-time FFT filtering is applied. The reason for the presence of this block is that the FFT procedure is relatively computationally intensive. Therefore, the script execution may encounter the time limit imposed by TradingView when all historical bars are processed.
As always, I look forward to your feedback!
Also, leave a comment if you'd be interested in the tutorial on how to use this tool and/or in seeing the FFT filter in a strategy.
Financial Astrology Vesta SpeedVesta (asteroid) speed provides a good indicator to determine the periods of dominant trend. During the direct phase (when the speed accelerated and reached highest value) we can observe that BTCUSD experienced a clear trend, perfect for trend following. In the contrary when speed was decelerating and speed started backward motion (retrograde) the price was in congestion experiencing sideways moves. From statistical analysis we noted that when Vesta speed is in direct motion 56% of the days resulted in price increase. When speed was stationary (starting to move retrograde) we observed that in 62% of the days the price decreased, finally, during retrograde phase in 54% of the days the price increased. Is clear that direct motion also offers more bullish days. However, in the statistical analysis of the price is not evident the price change range, with visual exploration in the chart is clear that when Vesta speed is in direct phase the range of the price is wider, therefore, direct motion provides the most interesting risk/reward ratio.
Note: The Vesta speed indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Vesta DeclinationVesta (asteroid) declination show a strong correlation with the BTCUSD trend, we can clearly see that all the most intense bullish periods have occurred when declination was moving from South to Node direction (when the slope is positive). In the events when declination was moving toward North and have penetrated the zero declination boundary (horizontal dashed line) we can observe a periods where price experienced more volatility.
Note: The Vesta declination indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Vesta LongitudeVesta is one of the largest objects in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, the orbit duration is 3.63 years and seems to be very relevant celestial object in financial astrology. The experienced financial astrologer "Bill Meridian" indicates that this asteroid rules the security business, and paper securities such as bonds and stocks. We have confirmed through statistical research that adding this asteroid to astrology machine learning models provides an increase in daily trend predictions accuracy for crypto-currencies sector.
Our statistical analysis of Vesta zodiac sign location concluded that when is transiting the signs of Aries, Gemini, Cancer, Leo and Libra the daily trend is 59% or more of the days bullish. When Vesta is located at Capricorn is very bearish with 60% of the daily trend going in downward direction. In the other zodiac signs the daily trend was neutral showing most of the time a sideways pattern.
Is very interesting to note that the exact date July 21, 2021, when Vesta entered in Libra BTCUSD started the last bullish wave that finally broke the congestion zone of the 30K-35K and started a new bullish optimism. Pay attention on what happened in the previous cycle when Vesta was located in Libra and do your conclusions.
Note: Vesta longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology True Lilith (Black Moon) LongitudeTrue Lilith (Black Moon) represents the wildly perturbed Moon apogee orbit, is not averaged (as Mean Lilith) and shows an erratic path with constant change of direction and speed. This Lilith uses the actual, real orbit rather than the average used by Mean Lilith. This perturbations are caused due to the gravitational pull of the Sun and the change of the orbit center which is the Earth-Moon Barycenter. The move of this apogee point toward all the Zodiac signs takes around 9 years to complete and as we can observe, the True Lilith moves back and forward within two consecutive zodiac signs during a prolonged period. In this erratic motion we can note that the peaks and valleys of this waves usually present a swing trade opportunities, is really impressive to note how a full or half True Lilith wave period correlates with short term local peaks and valleys in the BTCUSD price.
Note: The True Lilith (Black Moon) longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Mean Lilith (Black Moon) LongitudeMean Lilith (Black Moon) represents the apogee of the lunar orbit (point where the Moon is farthest from Earth) as the Moon experience perturbations due to the gravitational pull of the Sun and don't orbit in elliptical path due the fact that don't follow the Earth center but the Earth-Moon Barycenter cause that an average projection of this apogee point location needs to be calculated, for this reason, we need to differentiate the Mean Lilith and True Lilith. The move of this apogee point toward all the Zodiac signs takes around 9 years to complete so in BTCUSD asset we only have one complete revolution so is difficult to emit any clear judgement of the zodiac sign location influence in the trend. However this imaginary body named Lilith is widely adopted by astrologers and is very important in Chinese Astrology, for this reason, we decided to contribute the indicator to support the research of Chinese astro-traders.
Note: The Mean Lilith (Black Moon) longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology South Node (Ketu) DeclinationThe declination of South Node (Ketu) is the inverse of North Node (Rahu), therefore, the only relevant pattern that we detected is that when declination was within -6 to +6 degrees the price was congested within narrow price zone as was previously mentioned at the North Node (Rahu) declination indicator.
Note: The South Node (Ketu) declination indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology North Node (Rahu) DeclinationThe North Node (Rahu) declination is a long term cycle so don't seem to provide useful pattern for short/mid term trading, however is interesting to note that when the declination was within -6 to +6 degrees the price was congested within narrow price zone. As observed in all planets declinations indicators the boundary of moving from North to South or viceversa is critical to determine trend change but in the case of the Moon Nodes it seems to show that the planets energy becomes in equilibrium which causes that price are more stable.
Note: The North Node (Rahu) declination indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology South Node (Ketu) LongitudeSouth Node (Ketu) in Vedic astrology is considered to cause a bear trend when Eclipse occurs at this Moon Node. Moon Nodes are important because when Moon and Sun are in conjunction or opposition very close to the degree of a Moon's Node, a Solar or Lunar eclipse occurs.
The effect of the trend will be coloured by the Moon Node zodiac sign position. Based on statistical research we have noted that the periods where South Node (Ketu) was located in Sagittarius the trend was bullish 56% of the days, in Aquarius 54% of the days and in Pisces 62% of the days. When located at Aries was bearish 51% of the days. The other zodiac signs experienced mixed results that don't show a clear pattern.
Consider that the transition of South Node across all the Zodiac signs takes 19 years so in all BTCUSD historical prices, we don't have a complete revolution yet, for this reason, our understanding of all the energy frequencies related to South Node location are incomplete.
Note: The South Node (Ketu) longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology North Node (Rahu) LongitudeThe Moon Nodes are the points where Moon crosses the ecliptic and transition from North to South latitude, North Node (Rahu) in Vedic astrology is considered to cause a bull trend when Eclipse occurs at this Moon node. Moon nodes are important because when Moon and Sun are in conjunction or opposition close very close to the degree of a Moon Node, then a Solar or Lunar eclipse occurs.
The effect of the trend will be coloured by the Zodiac sign where the Moon Node is located at, based on statistical research we have noted that the periods where North Node (Rahu) was located in Geminis the 56% of days was bullish, in Virgo 62% of the days was bullish. The most bearish location was Libra with 51% of days bearish. However the transition of North Node around all the Zodiac takes 19 years so in all BTCUSD price history we don't have yet a complete revolution to have a complete understanding of all the energy frequencies.
Note: The North Node (Rahu) longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Ceres SpeedCeres speed influence is clear for BTCUSD and confirms other planets speed observations, volatility increase as speed is accelerating. The most dominant bull runs of BTC have occurred when Ceres was moving direct in speed and accelerating. In many cases the trend reversed or stalled where Ceres enter into deceleration period. The only exception was March 2019 where BTCUSD price increased while Ceres was moving retrograde but as we know, all the planets are acting simultaneously so careful exploration needs to be made with the other planets and asteroids speed phases during that same period to conclude why in that observation the volatility was strong.
Note: The Ceres speed indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Ceres DeclinationCeres declination shows similar trend behaviour as we have seen with other planets, when moving from South to North the dominant BTCUSD trend is bullish, when moving from North to South the dominant trend is bearish. We observe that the periods of most intense corrections have occurred when Ceres was located in South declination.
Note: The Ceres declination indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
Financial Astrology Ceres LongitudeCeres is the largest object in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter orbits, most of the people don't know that Ceres don't have the category of asteroid but a "dwarf planet", the same as Pluto. Many astrologers don't take Ceres into account when casting an astrological chart but my thinking is that if is proved by experience that Pluto with a mass of 1.30900 x 10^22 kilograms is relevant for market predictions, why not to consider Ceres which has a mass of 9.39 x 10^20 kilograms (7.2% of Pluto mass) but is closer to the Earth?
Through the statistical analysis of Ceres transit through tropical zodiac signs we noted that for BTCUSD there was a significant bullish trend where Ceres transited Aries (62% days), Gemini (67% days), Virgo (57% days) and Pisces (62% days) and significant bearish trend where Ceres transited Libra (56% days) and Scorpio (61% days).
The astrologer Bill Meridian indicated that Ceres rules: food and nursing homes. Other astrologers suggest that it rules: cooking, eating, farming, growing, gardening. I think we need more research to identify the specific sectors that are ruled by Ceres but definitely this dwarf planet is very relevant for financial markets trend forecasting.
Note: The Ceres longitude indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.
