SPX Excess CAPE YieldHere we are looking at the Excess CAPE yield for the SPX500 over the last 100+ years
"A higher CAPE meant a lower subsequent 10-year return, and vice versa. The R-squared was a phenomenally high 0.9 — the CAPE on its own was enough to explain 90% of stocks’ subsequent performance over a decade. The standard deviation was 1.37% — in other words, two-thirds of the time the prediction was within 1.37 percentage points of the eventual outcome: this over a quarter-century that included an equity bubble, a credit bubble, two epic bear markets, and a decade-long bull market."
assets.bwbx.io
In December of 2020 Dr. Robert Shiller the Yale Nobel Laurate suggested that an improvement on CAPE could be made by taking its inverse (the CAPE earnings yield) and subtracting the us10 year treasury yield.
"His model plainly suggests that stocks will do badly over the next 10 years, and that bonds will do even worse. This was the way Shiller put it in a research piece for Barclays Plc in October, (which can be found on SSRN Below):
In summary, investors expect a certain return in equities as compensation for investing in a riskier asset class, and as interest rates have declined, the relative expected return for equities has increased dramatically. We believe this may quantitatively help to explain investors current preference for equities over bonds, and as such the quick recoveries we are observing (with the exception of the UK), whilst still in the midst of a pandemic. In the US in particular, we are once again observing stretched valuations and high CAPE ratios compared to history."
Sources:
papers.ssrn.com
www.bloomberg.com
The standard trading view disclaimer applies to this post -- please consult your own investment advisor before making investment decisions. This post is for observation only and has no warranty etc. www.tradingview.com
Best,
JM
Fundamental Analysis
Outlier Detector with N-Sigma Confidence IntervalsA detrended series that oscilates around zero is obtained after first differencing a time series (i.e. subtracting the closing price for a candle from the one immediately before, for example). Hypothetically, assuming that every detrended closing price is independent of each other (what might not be true!), these values will follow a normal distribution with mean zero and unknown variance sigma squared (assuming equal variance, what is also probably not true as volatility changes over time for different pairs). After studentizing, they follow a Student's t-distribution, but as the sample size increases (back periods > 30, at least), they follow a standard normal distribution.
This script was developed for personal use and the idea is spotting candles that are at least 99% bigger than average (using N = 3) as they will cross the upper and lower confidence interval limits. N = 2 would roughly provide a 95% confidence interval.
Godzilla StochShort-term, Mid-term and long-term Stoch.
this indicator comes with overbought overbuy zones, when lines are tested the upper or lower zone that indicate that the market is in overbought or oversold.
Olso comes with J plot candles, when the candles are in upper or lower zone they plot red or green color, indicating that the market has entered in overbought oversold too.
For scalping use 1h Timeframe.
For intraday use 4h Timeframe.
for swing trading use 1d Timeframe.
It moves enormously when the lines are aligned in the upper zone or lower zones.
Relative Growth ScreenBased on the Growth Range indicator published here:
Instead of plotting, they are printed in color coded table. Colors say whether the growth rate of these factors are relatively higher or lower.
Similar to quality screen, table positions can be customized.
If you have big enough screen, you can fit both quality and growth screens this way:
s3.tradingview.com
Earnings DashboardThe Earnings Dashboard Indicator is a fast way to check the most recent quarterly earnings growth on TradingView.
Colors
The colors should help you get an easy overview of the quarters that are particularly outstanding.
- Earnings /Sales Growth & Surprise >= 20% -> Green
- Earnings /Sales Growth & Surprise <= -20% -> Red
- Net Margin < 5% -> Red
- Net Margin >15% -> Green
Indicator Configuration
- Not available at the moment. Feel free to leave us a comment on TradingView with your idea and we will see what we can do.
Planned Future Update
- Extension with annual (FY) financial data
Happy Trading 📈😎
Important : All data is retrieved using the variables provided by TradingView.
Value RangeHere is another attempt to chase value based on technical analysis.
This is extended version of PE range script published earlier.
Instead of just PE, this script contains several other factors which defines value. You can chose which factor to look at from input dialog:
Possible value factors included in this script are:
Price to Earnings
Price to Sales
Price to Book
PE - Forwarding
PS - Forwarding
Price to Cashflow
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
Enterprise Value to Cashflow
Some of these can be added to chart directly from financials. But, the script also calculate range based on donchian channel or bollinger bands. Instead of short periods, we are looking for periods in terms of years. Rest of things remain same.
ROE ValuationAn indicator that can be used to study ROE Valuation for stocks.
Red color means the market price is higher than the valuation whereas green color means the market price is below the valuation and it might be a good opportunity for value traders. Gray color indicates non-applicable results, when valuation is below zero for example.
PE ValuationAn indicator that can be used to study PE Valuation for stocks.
When the reported EPS for a company is non-positive the line turns gray. Red color means the market price is higher than the valuation whereas green color means the market price is below the valuation and it might be a good opportunity for value traders.
DCF ValuationAn indicator that can be used to study Discounted Cash Flow Valuation for stocks.
When the reported Free Cash Flow for a company is non-positive the line turns gray. Red color means the market price is higher than the valuation whereas green color means the market price is below the valuation and it might be a good opportunity for value traders.
Financial Highlights [Fundamentals]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator plot basic key financial data to imitate the presentation format of several popular finance site, make it easier for a quick glance of overall company financial health without switching tabs for every single stocks.
█ Financial Data Available:
- Revenue & PAT (Profit after Tax)
- Net Profit Margin (%)
- Gross Profit Margin (%)
- Earnings Per Share (EPS)
- Dividend
█ Features:
- Toggle between Quarter/Annual Financial Data (Notes: For Dividends, it will always be plotted based on Annual data, at Financial Year ending period)
- Options to plot at either at Quarter/Yearly ending period OR Financial Data published date
█ Limitation
- The accuracy of the data subject to Tradingview's source, but from my observation it's accurate 95% of the time
- Recently published data might not be available immediately. e.g. MYX exchange tends to have 1-3 days lag
- More information on Tradingview's financial data can be read here -> www.tradingview.com
█ Disclaimer
Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
My opinions and research are my own and do not constitute financial advice in any way whatsoever.
Nothing published by me constitutes an investment recommendation, nor should any data or Content published by me be relied upon for any investment/trading activities.
I strongly recommends that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.
Any ideas to further improve this indicator are welcome :)
Distance from the ATH priceThis indicator shows us the distance (in %) between the current price and the ATH price.
The closer the price is to the ATH the higher the percentage.
100% means we reached the ATH price.
HOW TO USE:
No special input necessary.
Markets:
It can be used to all markets.
NOTE:
Some Exchanges don't go very far back in the past and for this reason this may have impact on this Indicator.
Stock Value Display//This study is designed to plot estimates for a stock's value:
//1) the Price to earnings ratio (PE) value based on the trailing twelve months of data
//2) the PE value based future data
//3) the Benjamin Graham value based trailing data
//4) the Dividend Discount value based on trailing data
You can adjust the period of data used to calculate the value between Fiscal Quarter "FQ" and Fiscal Year "FY."
The values displayed on the chart are subject to the financial information provided to TradingView. This is intended to be used as a quick reference and should be viewed in context with other analysis prior to making any transaction decisions.
As always, happy trading!
Financial Statement (Annual)This is an advanced tool to analyze the economic and financial health of a company. The tool uses exactly the same data as built-in annual financial metrics by TradingView.
Provides better visualization and additional indicators (maximum, minimum, average, median, linear regression ) that greatly simplifies the analysis of financial data.
All 222 built-in metrics available
Stay cheeki breeki and don't get sick. Good luck!
Financial Statement (Quarterly)This is an advanced tool to analyze the economic and financial health of a company. The tool uses exactly the same data as built-in quarterly financial metrics by TradingView.
Provides better visualization and additional indicators (maximum, minimum, average, median, linear regression) that greatly simplifies the analysis of financial data. If you have ever used the built-in metrics then you will get what I mean:
214 metrics available except:
Dividends payable
Notes payable
Other short term debt
Float shares outstanding
KZ index
Net income per employee
Number of employees
Revenue per employee
Stay cheeki breeki and don't get sick. Good luck!
P1 FundamentalsP1 is because to me, this is a priority 1 indicator, so I have P1 and P2 indicators ordered on the favorite list.
What can you check on the selection pane?
On “period”, you can show the data related to:
the fiscal quarters
or the fiscal years.
You can select a pack of financial data that I have organized in sections:
Revenue & earnings
EPS & DPS (EPS, EPS estimate, DPS and dividend payout ratio )
Debt (total debt, total equity and cash & equivalents)
Returns (ROE, ROIC, ROA and R&D revenue to ratio)
I recommend to just select one of them, in other case the chart is a mess.
Any feedback on the code is welcome!!
3 Weeks Tight - CANSLIM Technical Indicator3 Weeks Tight - Introduction
3 weeks tight is a bullish continuation pattern discovered by IBD's founder, William O'Neil.
The pattern can used as an opportunity to add to an existing position as it often occurs after a breakout above a cup with handle or other technical pattern.
The 3 weeks tight pattern forms when a stock closes within approximately 1% to 1.5% of the prior week's close for at least two weeks. The reason for the bullishness is that it indciates that investors who moved the stock upward in price since the breakout are not taking profits, the price is holding steady.
The buy point is just above the area of resistance formed at the highs of the three weeks plus 10 cents. The ten cent addition to the price is to ensure a push through the resistance at the high of the range.
Key Points:
It's preferred that closes for each week are in the upper half of the stock's range.
Ideally, volume will increase significantly as the stocks moves past the buy point.
This pattern generally performs best when the market is in an uptrend.
Features:
A configurable horizontal bar that spans the 3 week period.
A vertical band that highlights the tightness pattern.
A label to show the buy price after 3 week tight pattern.
Optional alert when the 3 weeks tight pattern is recognized.
Spitznagel Faustmann RatioThis is a rough version of the Faustmann Ratio metric that Mark Spitznagel presents in The Dao of Capital. The purpose is to conservatively calculate the price of the company (market cap) relative to net worth. Over a medium term horizon, the theory is that companies which have a high ROIC (see my other script) combined with a low Faustmann Ratio (color coded to give you a rough idea) should generally outperform. Please don't take this short summary as an excuse to not read the full book. It's well worth your time. (I am not affiliated with the author in any way.)
Spitznagel ROICThis is a rough version of the Return on Invested Capital metric that Mark Spitznagel presents in The Dao of Capital. The purpose is to calculate the return on real invested capital, conservatively calculated. Over a medium term horizon, the theory is that companies which have a high ROIC (presented here as a decimal value where 0.5 = 50%, 1 = 100%, etc., and color coded as a general guide) combined with a low Faustmann Ratio (see my other script) should generally outperform. Please don't take this short summary as an excuse to not read the full book. It's well worth your time. (I am not affiliated with the author in any way.)
GBTC premium as a percentage of the bitcoin pricePlots the GBTC premium as a percentage of the bitcoin price at the close. It also includes the annual management fee (2% at the moment). It accrues on a daily, weekly or monthly basis depending on the chart resolution. (intraday not supported) The amount of bitcoin per gbtc share and the annual fee may be changed by Grayscale in the future. Those values can be easily update in the script settings.
Graham Net Current Asset Value per ShareNet current asset value per share (NCAVPS) is a measure created by Benjamin Graham as one means of gauging the attractiveness of a stock. A key metric for value investors, NCAVPS is calculated by taking a company's current assets and subtracting total liabilities.
NCAVPS = Current Assets - (Total Liabilities + Preferred Stock) ÷ Shares Outstanding.
According to Graham, investors will benefit greatly if they invest in companies where the stock prices are no more than 67% (or 2/3) of their NCAV per share (price <= (2/3)*NCAV).
Coloring pattern:
- price <= (1/3)*ncav -> light green
- (1/3)*ncav < price <= (2/3)*ncav -> green
- (2/3)*ncav < price <= ncav -> dim red
- price > ncav -> red
Long RSIThe RSI is a technical indicator generally used with the general setting being 14 days, and often shorter.
The accepted view is that a level of 70 indicates overbought conditions, and 30 indicates oversold conditions.
A short RSI setting will give signals quite often, and they might sometimes contradict each other.
As a individual investor, perhaps with a background in fundamental analysis, the RSI might be overlooked for other fundamental metrics.
But the idea here is that longer RSI settings can be used for investing.
The problem that arises is how to know when the indicator has reached a level that is either overbought or oversold.
This script solves that by using a specific look back period (selectable, but the standard is 1 year), and plotting the highest/lowest value that the RSI has had for that time period.
The idea is that a buy signal occurs when the indicator is at a 'historic' low, and a sell signal occurs when it at its 'historic' high.
Since you generally want to buy when the indicator is at its low, and has stopped decreasing, the script comes with a function that shows you when yesterdays value reached a historic low, but todays value is higher than yesterday.
This is shown by a color change of the background to green. The same is true, but opposite, for sell signals and then the background turns red.
THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE, AND YOU SHOULD ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY TRADING
