Risk Recommender — (Heatmap)📊 Risk Recommender — Per-Trade & Annualized (Heatmap Columns)
Estimate the optimal risk percentage for any market regime.
This tool dynamically recommends how much of your account equity to risk — either per trade or at a portfolio (annualized) level — using volatility as the guide.
⚙️ How it works
Two distinct modes give you flexibility:
1️⃣ Per-Trade (ATR-based)
• Calculates the current Average True Range (ATR) compared to its long-term baseline.
• When volatility is high (ATR ↑), risk per trade decreases to maintain constant dollar risk.
• When volatility is low (ATR ↓), risk per trade increases within your defined floor and ceiling.
• The display is normalized by stop distance (× ATR) and smoothed to avoid noise.
2️⃣ Annualized (Volatility Targeting)
• Computes realized volatility (standard deviation of log returns) and an EWMA forecast of future volatility.
• Blends current and forecast volatilities to estimate “effective” volatility.
• Scales your base risk so that portfolio volatility converges toward your chosen annual target (e.g., 20%).
• Useful for portfolio-level or systematic strategies that maintain constant volatility exposure.
🎨 Heatmap Visualization
The vertical column graph acts like a thermometer:
• 🟥 Red → “Reduce risk” (volatility high).
• 🟩 Green → “Increase risk” (volatility low).
• Smoothed and bounded between your Floor and Ceiling risk levels.
• Optional dotted guides mark those bounds.
• Label shows the current mode, recommended risk %, and key metrics (ATR ratio or effective volatility).
🔧 Key Inputs
• Base max risk per trade (%) — your normal per-trade risk budget.
• ATR length / Baseline ATR length — control sensitivity to short- vs. long-term volatility.
• Target annualized volatility (%) — portfolio volatility target for quant mode.
• λ (lambda) — smoothing factor for the EWMA volatility forecast (0.90–0.99 typical).
• Floor & Ceiling — clamps the output to avoid extreme sizing.
• Smoothing & Hysteresis — prevent rapid changes in risk recommendations.
🧮 Interpreting the Output
• “Recommended Risk (%)” = suggested portion of equity to risk on the next trade (or current exposure).
• In Per-Trade mode: reflects current ATR ÷ baseline ATR .
• In Annualized mode: reflects target volatility ÷ effective volatility .
• Use the color and height of the column as a quick visual cue for aggressiveness.
💡 Typical Use Cases
• Position-sizing overlay for discretionary traders.
• Volatility-targeting component for algorithmic or multi-asset systems.
• Educational tool to understand how volatility governs prudent risk management.
📘 Notes
• This indicator provides risk suggestions only ; it does not place trades.
• Works on any symbol or timeframe.
• Combine with your own strategy or alerts for full automation.
• All calculations use built-in Pine functions; no proprietary logic.
Tags:
#RiskManagement #ATR #Volatility #Quant #PositionSizing #SystematicTrading #AlgorithmicTrading #Portfolio #TradingStrategy #Heatmap #EWMA #Risk
Quant
First Passage Time - Distribution AnalysisThe First Passage Time (FPT) Distribution Analysis indicator is a sophisticated probabilistic tool that answers one of the most critical questions in trading: "How long will it take for price to reach my target, and what are the odds of getting there first?"
Unlike traditional technical indicators that focus on what might happen, this indicator tells you when it's likely to happen.
Mathematical Foundation: First Passage Time Theory
What is First Passage Time?
First Passage Time (FPT) is a concept in stochastic processes that measures the time it takes for a random process to reach a specific threshold for the first time. Originally developed in physics and mathematics, FPT has applications in:
Quantitative Finance: Option pricing, risk management, and algorithmic trading
Neuroscience: Modeling neural firing patterns
Biology: Population dynamics and disease spread
Engineering: Reliability analysis and failure prediction
The Mathematics Behind It
This indicator uses Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), the same stochastic model used in the Black-Scholes option pricing formula:
dS = μS dt + σS dW
Where:
S = Asset price
μ = Drift (trend component)
σ = Volatility (uncertainty component)
dW = Wiener process (random walk)
Through Monte Carlo simulation, the indicator runs 1,000+ price path simulations to statistically determine:
When each threshold (+X% or -X%) is likely to be hit
Which threshold is hit first (directional bias)
How often each scenario occurs (probability distribution)
🎯 How This Indicator Works
Core Algorithm Workflow:
Calculate Historical Statistics
Measures recent price volatility (standard deviation of log returns)
Calculates drift (average directional movement)
Annualizes these metrics for meaningful comparison
Run Monte Carlo Simulations
Generates 1,000+ random price paths based on historical behavior
Tracks when each path hits the upside (+X%) or downside (-X%) threshold
Records which threshold was hit first in each simulation
Aggregate Statistical Results
Calculates percentile distributions (10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th)
Computes "first hit" probabilities (upside vs downside)
Determines average and median time-to-target
Visual Representation
Displays thresholds as horizontal lines
Shows gradient risk zones (purple-to-blue)
Provides comprehensive statistics table
📈 Use Cases
1. Options Trading
Selling Options: Determine if your strike price is likely to be hit before expiration
Buying Options: Estimate probability of reaching profit targets within your time window
Time Decay Management: Compare expected time-to-target vs theta decay
Example: You're considering selling a 30-day call option 5% out of the money. The indicator shows there's a 72% chance price hits +5% within 12 days. This tells you the trade has high assignment risk.
2. Swing Trading
Entry Timing: Wait for higher probability setups when directional bias is strong
Target Setting: Use median time-to-target to set realistic profit expectations
Stop Loss Placement: Understand probability of hitting your stop before target
Example: The indicator shows 85% upside probability with median time of 3.2 days. You can confidently enter long positions with appropriate position sizing.
3. Risk Management
Position Sizing: Larger positions when probability heavily favors one direction
Portfolio Allocation: Reduce exposure when probabilities are near 50/50 (high uncertainty)
Hedge Timing: Know when to add protective positions based on downside probability
Example: Indicator shows 55% upside vs 45% downside—nearly neutral. This signals high uncertainty, suggesting reduced position size or wait for better setup.
4. Market Regime Detection
Trending Markets: High directional bias (70%+ one direction)
Range-bound Markets: Balanced probabilities (45-55% both directions)
Volatility Regimes: Compare actual vs theoretical minimum time
Example: Consistent 90%+ bullish bias across multiple timeframes confirms strong uptrend—stay long and avoid counter-trend trades.
First Hit Rate (Most Important!)
Shows which threshold is likely to be hit FIRST:
Upside %: Probability of hitting upside target before downside
Downside %: Probability of hitting downside target before upside
These always sum to 100%
⚠️ Warning: If you see "Low Hit Rate" warning, increase this parameter!
Advanced Parameters
Drift Mode
Allows you to explore different scenarios:
Historical: Uses actual recent trend (default—most realistic)
Zero (Neutral): Assumes no trend, only volatility (symmetric probabilities)
50% Reduced: Dampens trend effect (conservative scenario)
Use Case: Switch to "Zero (Neutral)" to see what happens in a pure volatility environment, useful for range-bound markets.
Distribution Type
Percentile: Shows 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90% levels (recommended for most users)
Sigma: Shows standard deviation levels (1σ, 2σ)—useful for statistical analysis
⚠️ Important Limitations & Best Practices
Limitations
Assumes GBM: Real markets have fat tails, jumps, and regime changes not captured by GBM
Historical Parameters: Uses recent volatility/drift—may not predict regime shifts
No Fundamental Events: Cannot predict earnings, news, or macro shocks
Computational: Runs only on last bar—doesn't give historical signals
Remember: Probabilities are not certainties. Use this indicator as part of a comprehensive trading plan with proper risk management.
Created by: Henrique Centieiro. feedback is more than welcome!
Quant Trend + Donchian (Educational, Public-Safe)What this does
Educational, public-safe visualization of a quant regime model:
• Trend : EMA(64) vs EMA(256) (EWMAC proxy)
• Breakout : Donchian channel (200)
• Volatility-awareness : internal z-scores (not plotted) for concept clarity
Why it’s useful
• Shows when trend & breakout align (clean regimes) vs conflict (chop)
• Helps explain why volatility-aware systems size up in smooth trends and scale down in noise
How to read it
• EMA64 above EMA256 with price near/above Donchian high → trend-following alignment
• EMA64 below EMA256 with price near/below Donchian low → bearish alignment
• Inside channel with EMAs tangled → range/chop risk
Notes
• Indicator is educational only (no orders).
• Built entirely with TradingView built-ins.
• For consistent visuals: enable “Indicator values on price scale” and disable “Scale price chart only” in Settings → Scales .
Trend-Following & Breakout — Index Quant Strategy (NASDAQ)📈 Trend-Following & Breakout — Index Quant Strategy (NASDAQ & S&P 500)
Type: Invite-only strategy
Markets: NASDAQ 100 (NAS100 / US100 / NQ), S&P 500 (US500 / SPX), and other major equity indices.
🧠 Concept: Continuous trend model combining EWMAC (trend-following) and Donchian (breakout) signals, scaled by forecast strength and portfolio risk.
⚙️ Execution: Rebalances only on decision-bar closes, using hysteresis and a no-trade band to reduce churn.
📊 Default bias: Long-only — aligned with equity index drift.
🧩 How it works
• EWMAC Trend: Difference between fast and slow EMAs, normalized by an EWMA of absolute returns.
• Donchian Breakout: Distance beyond a 200-bar channel (Strict mode) or relative z-score position within it.
• Forecast combination: Weighted sum of trend and breakout points, clamped to ± capPoints.
• Hysteresis: Prevents quick sign flips near zero forecast.
• Risk scaling: Maps forecast strength to position size using equity × risk budget × ATR-based stop distance.
• Rebalance: Executes only if the required quantity change exceeds the Δqty threshold; can optionally block increases on Sundays (for CFDs).
⚙️ Default parameters
Deployed on NQ / US100 / NAS100 on Daily Timeframe
• Decision timeframe = 360 min (other options from 1 min to 1 week).
• Trend (EWMAC): Fast = 64, Slow = 256, Vol Norm = 32, Weight = 0.8.
• Breakout (Donchian): Length = 200, Mode = Strict, Weight = 0.2.
• Forecast scaling: ptsPerSigma = 1.0, capPoints = 10.
• Risk % per rebalance = 4 % of equity.
• ATR stop: ATR(14) × 1.0.
• No-trade band (Δqty) = 4 units.
• Hysteresis = 2 forecast points.
• Bias = Long-only (Neutral / Long-bias 50 % optional).
• Skip Sunday increases = false (default).
📋 Backtest properties (documented)
• Initial capital = 100 000 USD.
• Commission = 0.20 % per trade.
• Pyramiding = 10.
• Calc on every tick = false.
• Point value = 1 (for NAS100 CFD).
• No financing or slippage modeled.
• If using CFDs, account for overnight funding.
• On futures (NQ / ES), carry is implicit.
📊 Typical behaviour
• Many small scratches, a few large winners.
• Performs best during multi-week / multi-month trends.
• Underperforms in tight or volatile ranges.
• Average hold ≈ 30 – 90 days in historical tests.
💡 Risk and performance guide (illustrative)
Sharpe ≈ 1.25
Sortino ≈ 1.10 – 1.30
Max drawdown ≈ –18 % to –25 %
Annual volatility ≈ 24 – 28 %
CAGR ≈ 50 – 60 % (at 4 % risk)
Edge ratio ≈ 5 (MFE / MAE)
Historical backtests only — past performance does not guarantee future results.
🌍 Intended markets and timeframes
Optimized for NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500; also effective on similar indices (DAX, Dow Jones, FTSE).
Best on Daily or higher timeframes.
Aligns with long-term index drift — suitable for long-bias systematic trend portfolios.
⚠️ Limitations
• Backtests exclude CFD funding costs.
• Trend models will have losing streaks in range-bound markets.
• Designed for experienced traders seeking systematic exposure.
🔑 Requesting access
Send a private TradingView message to with the text:
“Request access to Trend-Following & Breakout — Index Quant Strategy.”
Access is granted only on explicit request.
For further information, see my TradingView Signature.
🆕 Release notes (v1.0)
• Initial release (360 min TF): EWMAC 64/256 + Donchian 200 Strict.
• Risk 4 %, ATR × 1.0, Long-only bias, hysteresis 2 pts, Δqty ≥ 4.
• Developed for NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 indices.
• Implements continuous risk-scaled positioning and no-trade band logic.
🧾 Originality statement
This strategy is original work built entirely from TradingView built-ins (EMA, ATR, Highest, Lowest).
It does not reuse open-source invite-only code.
Any future reuse of open scripts will be done with explicit permission and credit.
Volume Based Sampling [BackQuant]Volume Based Sampling
What this does
This indicator converts the usual time-based stream of candles into an event-based stream of “synthetic” bars that are created only when enough trading activity has occurred . You choose the activity definition:
Volume bars : create a new synthetic bar whenever the cumulative number of shares/contracts traded reaches a threshold.
Dollar bars : create a new synthetic bar whenever the cumulative traded dollar value (price × volume) reaches a threshold.
The script then keeps an internal ledger of these synthetic opens, highs, lows, closes, and volumes, and can display them as candles, plot a moving average calculated over the synthetic closes, mark each time a new sample is formed, and optionally overlay the native time-bars for comparison.
Why event-based sampling matters
Markets do not release information on a clock: activity clusters during news, opens/closes, and liquidity shocks. Event-based bars normalize for that heteroskedastic arrival of information: during active periods you get more bars (finer resolution); during quiet periods you get fewer bars (coarser resolution). Research shows this can reduce microstructure pathologies and produce series that are closer to i.i.d. and more suitable for statistical modeling and ML. In particular:
Volume and dollar bars are a common event-time alternative to time bars in quantitative research and are discussed extensively in Advances in Financial Machine Learning (AFML). These bars aim to homogenize information flow by sampling on traded size or value rather than elapsed seconds.
The Volume Clock perspective models market activity in “volume time,” showing that many intraday phenomena (volatility, liquidity shocks) are better explained when time is measured by traded volume instead of seconds.
Related market microstructure work on flow toxicity and liquidity highlights that the risk dealers face is tied to information intensity of order flow, again arguing for activity-based clocks.
How the indicator works (plain English)
Choose your bucket type
Volume : accumulate volume until it meets a threshold.
Dollar Bars : accumulate close × volume until it meets a dollar threshold.
Pick the threshold rule
Dynamic threshold : by default, the script computes a rolling statistic (mean or median) of recent activity to set the next bucket size. This adapts bar size to changing conditions (e.g., busier sessions produce more frequent synthetic bars).
Fixed threshold : optionally override with a constant target (e.g., exactly 100,000 contracts per synthetic bar, or $5,000,000 per dollar bar).
Build the synthetic bar
While a bucket fills, the script tracks:
o_s: first price of the bucket (synthetic open)
h_s: running maximum price (synthetic high)
l_s: running minimum price (synthetic low)
c_s: last price seen (synthetic close)
v_s: cumulative native volume inside the bucket
d_samples: number of native bars consumed to complete the bucket (a proxy for “how fast” the threshold filled)
Emit a new sample
Once the bucket meets/exceeds the threshold, a new synthetic bar is finalized and stored. If overflow occurs (e.g., a single native bar pushes you past the threshold by a lot), the code will emit multiple synthetic samples to account for the extra activity.
Maintain a rolling history efficiently
A ring buffer can overwrite the oldest samples when you hit your Max Stored Samples cap, keeping memory usage stable.
Compute synthetic-space statistics
The script computes an SMA over the last N synthetic closes and basic descriptors like average bars per synthetic sample, mean and standard deviation of synthetic returns, and more. These are all in event time , not clock time.
Inputs and options you will actually use
Data Settings
Sampling Method : Volume or Dollar Bars.
Rolling Lookback : window used to estimate the dynamic threshold from recent activity.
Filter : Mean or Median for the dynamic threshold. Median is more robust to spikes.
Use Fixed? / Fixed Threshold : override dynamic sizing with a constant target.
Max Stored Samples : cap on synthetic history to keep performance snappy.
Use Ring Buffer : turn on to recycle storage when at capacity.
Indicator Settings
SMA over last N samples : moving average in synthetic space . Because its index is sample count, not minutes, it adapts naturally: more updates in busy regimes, fewer in quiet regimes.
Visuals
Show Synthetic Bars : plot the synthetic OHLC candles.
Candle Color Mode :
Green/Red: directional close vs open
Volume Intensity: opacity scales with synthetic size
Neutral: single color
Adaptive: graded by how large the bucket was relative to threshold
Mark new samples : drop a small marker whenever a new synthetic bar prints.
Comparison & Research
Show Time Bars : overlay the native time-based candles to visually compare how the two sampling schemes differ.
How to read it, step by step
Turn on “Synthetic Bars” and optionally overlay “Time Bars.” You will see that during high-activity bursts, synthetic bars print much faster than time bars.
Watch the synthetic SMA . Crosses in synthetic space can be more meaningful because each update represents a roughly comparable amount of traded information.
Use the “Avg Bars per Sample” in the info table as a regime signal. Falling average bars per sample means activity is clustering, often coincident with higher realized volatility.
Try Dollar Bars when price varies a lot but share count does not; they normalize by dollar risk taken in each sample. Volume Bars are ideal when share count is a better proxy for information flow in your instrument.
Quant finance background and citations
Event time vs. clock time : Easley, López de Prado, and O’Hara advocate measuring intraday phenomena on a volume clock to better align sampling with information arrival. This framing helps explain volatility bursts and liquidity droughts and motivates volume-based bars.
Flow toxicity and dealer risk : The same authors show how adverse selection risk changes with the intensity and informativeness of order flow, further supporting activity-based clocks for modeling and risk management.
AFML framework : In Advances in Financial Machine Learning , event-driven bars such as volume, dollar, and imbalance bars are presented as superior sampling units for many ML tasks, yielding more stationary features and fewer microstructure distortions than fixed time bars. ( Alpaca )
Practical use cases
1) Regime-aware moving averages
The synthetic SMA in event time is not fooled by quiet periods: if nothing of consequence trades, it barely updates. This can make trend filters less sensitive to calendar drift and more sensitive to true participation.
2) Breakout logic on “equal-information” samples
The script exposes simple alerts such as breakout above/below the synthetic SMA . Because each bar approximates a constant amount of activity, breakouts are conditioned on comparable informational mass, not arbitrary time buckets.
3) Volatility-adaptive backtests
If you use synthetic bars as your base data stream, most signal rules become self-paced : entry and exit opportunities accelerate in fast markets and slow down in quiet regimes, which often improves the realism of slippage and fill modeling in research pipelines (pair this indicator with strategy code downstream).
4) Regime diagnostics
Avg Bars per Sample trending down: activity is dense; expect larger realized ranges.
Return StdDev (synthetic) rising: noise or trend acceleration in event time; re-tune risk.
Interpreting the info panel
Method : your sampling choice and current threshold.
Total Samples : how many synthetic bars have been formed.
Current Vol/Dollar : how much of the next bucket is already filled.
Bars in Bucket : native bars consumed so far in the current bucket.
Avg Bars/Sample : lower means higher trading intensity.
Avg Return / Return StdDev : return stats computed over synthetic closes .
Research directions you can build from here
Imbalance and run bars
Extend beyond pure volume or dollar thresholds to imbalance bars that trigger on directional order flow imbalance (e.g., buy volume minus sell volume), as discussed in the AFML ecosystem. These often further homogenize distributional properties used in ML. alpaca.markets
Volume-time indicators
Re-compute classical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger) on the synthetic stream. The premise is that signals are updated by traded information , not seconds, which may stabilize indicator behavior in heteroskedastic regimes.
Liquidity and toxicity overlays
Combine synthetic bars with proxies of flow toxicity to anticipate spread widening or volatility clustering. For instance, tag synthetic bars that surpass multiples of the threshold and test whether subsequent realized volatility is elevated.
Dollar-risk parity sampling for portfolios
Use dollar bars to align samples across assets by notional risk, enabling cleaner cross-asset features and comparability in multi-asset models (e.g., correlation studies, regime clustering). AFML discusses the benefits of event-driven sampling for cross-sectional ML feature engineering.
Microstructure feature set
Compute duration in native bars per synthetic sample , range per sample , and volume multiple of threshold as inputs to state classifiers or regime HMMs . These features are inherently activity-aware and often predictive of short-horizon volatility and trend persistence per the event-time literature. ( Alpaca )
Tips for clean usage
Start with dynamic thresholds using Median over a sensible lookback to avoid outlier distortion, then move to Fixed thresholds when you know your instrument’s typical activity scale.
Compare time bars vs synthetic bars side by side to develop intuition for how your market “breathes” in activity time.
Keep Max Stored Samples reasonable for performance; the ring buffer avoids memory creep while preserving a rolling window of research-grade data.
Expected Value Monte CarloI created this indicator after noticing that there was no Expected Value indicator here on TradingView.
The EVMC provides statistical Expected Value to what might happen in the future regarding the asset you are analyzing.
It uses 2 quantitative methods:
Historical Backtest to ground your analysis in long-term, factual data.
Monte Carlo Simulation to project a cone of probable future outcomes based on recent market behavior.
This gives you a data-driven edge to quantify risk, and make more informed trading decisions.
The indicator includes:
Dual analysis: Combines historical probability with forward-looking simulation.
Quantified projections: Provides the Expected Value ($ and %), Win Rate, and Sharpe Ratio for both methods.
Asset-aware: Automatically adjusts its calculations for Stocks (252 trading days) and Crypto (365 days) for mathematical accuracy.
The projection cone shows the mean expected path and the +/- 1 standard deviation range of outcomes.
No repainting
Calculation:
1. Historical Expected Value:
This is a systematic backtest over thousands of bars. It calculates the return Rᵢ for N past trades (buy-and-hold). The Historical EV is the simple average of these returns, giving a baseline performance measure.
Historical EV % = (Σ Rᵢ) / N
2. Monte Carlo Projection:
This projection uses the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model to simulate thousands of future price paths based on the market's recent behavior.
It first measures the drift (μ), or recent trend, and volatility (σ), or recent risk, from the Projection Lookback period. It then projects a final return for each simulation using the core GBM formula:
Projected Return = exp( (μ - σ²/2)T + σ√T * Z ) - 1
(Where T is the time horizon and Z is a random variable for the simulation.)
The purple line on the chart is the average of all simulated outcomes (the Monte Carlo EV). The cone represents one standard deviation of those outcomes.
The dashed lines represent one standard deviation (+/- 1σ) from the average, forming a cone of probable outcomes. Roughly 68% of the simulated paths ended within this cone.
This projection answers the question: "If the recent trend and volatility continue, where is the price most likely to go?"
Here's how to read the indicator
Expected Value ($/%): Is my average trade profitable?
Win Rate: How often can I expect to be right?
Sharpe Ratio: Am I being adequately compensated for the risk I'm taking?
User Guide
Max trade duration (bars): This is your analysis timeframe. Are you interested in the probable outcome over the next month (21 bars), quarter (63 bars), or year (252 bars)?
Position size ($): Set this to your typical trade size to see the Expected Value in real dollar terms.
Projection lookback (bars): This is the most important input for the Monte Carlo model. A short lookback (e.g., 50) makes the projection highly sensitive to recent momentum. Use this to identify potential recency bias. A long lookback (e.g., 252) provides a more stable, long-term projection of trend and volatility.
Historical Lookback (bars): For the historical backtest, more data is always better. Use the maximum that your TradingView plan allows for the most statistically significant results.
Use TP/SL for Historical EV: Check this box to see how the historical performance would have changed if you had used a simple Take Profit and Stop Loss, rather than just holding for the full duration.
I hope you find this indicator useful and please let me know if you have any suggestions. 😊
Mutanabby_AI | Ultimate Algo | Remastered+Overview
The Mutanabby_AI Ultimate Algo Remastered+ represents a sophisticated trend-following system that combines Supertrend analysis with multiple moving average confirmations. This comprehensive indicator is designed specifically for identifying high-probability trend continuation and reversal opportunities across various market conditions.
Core Algorithm Components
**Supertrend Foundation**: The primary signal generation relies on a customizable Supertrend indicator with adjustable sensitivity (1-20 range). This adaptive trend-following tool uses Average True Range calculations to establish dynamic support and resistance levels that respond to market volatility.
**SMA Confirmation Matrix**: Multiple Simple Moving Averages (SMA 4, 5, 9, 13) provide layered confirmation for signal strength. The algorithm distinguishes between regular signals and "Strong" signals based on SMA 4 vs SMA 5 relationship, offering traders different conviction levels for position sizing.
**Trend Ribbon Visualization**: SMA 21 and SMA 34 create a visual trend ribbon that changes color based on their relationship. Green ribbon indicates bullish momentum while red signals bearish conditions, providing immediate visual trend context.
**RSI-Based Candle Coloring**: Advanced 61-tier RSI system colors candles with gradient precision from deep red (RSI ≤20) through purple transitions to bright green (RSI ≥79). This visual enhancement helps traders instantly assess momentum strength and overbought/oversold conditions.
Signal Generation Logic
**Buy Signal Criteria**:
- Price crosses above Supertrend line
- Close price must be above SMA 9 (trend confirmation)
- Signal strength determined by SMA 4 vs SMA 5 relationship
- "Strong Buy" when SMA 4 ≥ SMA 5
- Regular "Buy" when SMA 4 < SMA 5
**Sell Signal Criteria**:
- Price crosses below Supertrend line
- Close price must be below SMA 9 (trend confirmation)
- Signal strength based on SMA relationship
- "Strong Sell" when SMA 4 ≤ SMA 5
- Regular "Sell" when SMA 4 > SMA 5
Advanced Risk Management System
**Automated TP/SL Calculation**: The indicator automatically calculates stop loss and take profit levels using ATR-based measurements. Risk percentage and ATR length are fully customizable, allowing traders to adapt to different market conditions and personal risk tolerance.
**Multiple Take Profit Targets**:
- 1:1 Risk-Reward ratio for conservative profit taking
- 2:1 Risk-Reward for balanced trade management
- 3:1 Risk-Reward for maximum profit potential
**Visual Risk Display**: All risk management levels appear as both labels and optional trend lines on the chart. Customizable line styles (solid, dashed, dotted) and positioning ensure clear visualization without chart clutter.
**Dynamic Level Updates**: Risk levels automatically recalculate with each new signal, maintaining current market relevance throughout position lifecycles.
Visual Enhancement Features
**Customizable Display Options**: Toggle trend ribbon, TP/SL levels, and risk lines independently. Decimal precision adjustments (1-8 decimal places) accommodate different instrument price formats and personal preferences.
**Professional Label System**: Clean, informative labels show entry points, stop losses, and take profit targets with precise price levels. Labels automatically position themselves for optimal chart readability.
**Color-Coded Momentum**: The gradient RSI candle coloring system provides instant visual feedback on momentum strength, helping traders assess market energy and potential reversal zones.
Implementation Strategy
**Timeframe Optimization**: The algorithm performs effectively across multiple timeframes, with higher timeframes (4H, Daily) providing more reliable signals for swing trading. Lower timeframes work well for day trading with appropriate risk adjustments.
**Sensitivity Adjustment**: Lower sensitivity values (1-5) generate fewer but higher-quality signals, ideal for conservative approaches. Higher sensitivity (15-20) increases signal frequency for active trading styles.
**Risk Management Integration**: Use the automated risk calculations as baseline parameters, adjusting risk percentage based on account size and market conditions. The 1:1, 2:1, 3:1 targets enable systematic profit-taking strategies.
Market Application
**Trend Following Excellence**: Primary strength lies in capturing significant trend movements through the Supertrend foundation with SMA confirmation. The dual-layer approach reduces false signals common in single-indicator systems.
**Momentum Assessment**: RSI-based candle coloring provides immediate momentum context, helping traders assess signal strength and potential continuation probability.
**Range Detection**: The trend ribbon helps identify ranging conditions when SMA 21 and SMA 34 converge, alerting traders to potential breakout opportunities.
Performance Optimization
**Signal Quality**: The requirement for both Supertrend crossover AND SMA 9 confirmation significantly improves signal reliability compared to basic trend-following approaches.
**Visual Clarity**: The comprehensive visual system enables rapid market assessment without complex calculations, ideal for traders managing multiple instruments.
**Adaptability**: Extensive customization options allow fine-tuning for specific markets, trading styles, and risk preferences while maintaining the core algorithm integrity.
## Non-Repainting Design
**Educational Note**: This indicator uses standard TradingView functions (Supertrend, SMA, RSI) with normal behavior patterns. Real-time updates on current candles are expected and standard across all technical indicators. Historical signals on closed candles remain fixed and unchanged, ensuring reliable backtesting and analysis.
**Signal Confirmation**: Final signals are confirmed only when candles close, following standard technical analysis principles. The algorithm provides clear distinction between developing signals and confirmed entries.
Technical Specifications
**Supertrend Parameters**: Default sensitivity of 4 with ATR length of 11 provides balanced signal generation. Sensitivity range from 1-20 allows adaptation to different market volatilities and trading preferences.
**Moving Average Configuration**: SMA periods of 8, 9, and 13 create multi-layered trend confirmation, while SMA 21 and 34 form the visual trend ribbon for broader market context.
**Risk Management**: ATR-based calculations with customizable risk percentage ensure dynamic adaptation to market volatility while maintaining consistent risk exposure principles.
Recommended Settings
**Conservative Approach**: Sensitivity 4-5, RSI length 14, higher timeframes (4H, Daily) for swing trading with maximum signal reliability.
**Active Trading**: Sensitivity 6-8, RSI length 8-10, intermediate timeframes (1H) for balanced signal frequency and quality.
**Scalping Setup**: Sensitivity 10-15, RSI length 5-8, lower timeframes (15-30min) with enhanced risk management protocols.
## Conclusion
The Mutanabby_AI Ultimate Algo Remastered+ combines proven trend-following principles with modern visual enhancements and comprehensive risk management. The algorithm's strength lies in its multi-layered confirmation approach and automated risk calculations, providing both novice and experienced traders with clear signals and systematic trade management.
Success with this system requires understanding the relationship between signal strength indicators and adapting sensitivity settings to match current market conditions. The comprehensive visual feedback system enables rapid decision-making while the automated risk management ensures consistent trade parameters.
Practice with different sensitivity settings and timeframes to optimize performance for your specific trading style and risk tolerance. The algorithm's systematic approach provides an excellent framework for disciplined trend-following strategies across various market environments.
Mutanabby_AI __ OSC+ST+SQZMOMMutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM: Multi-Component Trading Analysis Tool
Overview
The Mutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM indicator combines three proven technical analysis components into a unified trading system, providing comprehensive market analysis through integrated oscillator signals, trend identification, and volatility assessment.
Core Components
Wave Trend Oscillator (OSC): Identifies overbought and oversold market conditions using exponential moving average calculations. Key threshold levels include overbought zones at 60 and 53, with oversold areas marked at -60 and -53. Crossover signals between the two oscillator lines generate entry opportunities, displayed as colored circles on the chart for easy identification.
Supertrend Indicator (ST): Determines overall market direction using Average True Range calculations with a 2.5 factor and 10-period ATR configuration. Green lines indicate confirmed uptrends while red lines signal downtrend conditions. The indicator automatically adapts to market volatility changes, providing reliable trend identification across different market environments.
Squeeze Momentum (SQZMOM): Compares Bollinger Bands with Keltner Channels to identify consolidation periods and potential breakout scenarios. Black squares indicate squeeze conditions representing low volatility periods, green triangles signal confirmed upward breakouts, and red triangles mark downward breakout confirmations.
Signal Generation Logic
Long Entry Conditions:
Green triangles from Squeeze Momentum component
Supertrend line transitioning to green
Bullish crossovers in Wave Trend Oscillator from oversold territory
Short Entry Conditions:
Red triangles from Squeeze Momentum component
Supertrend line transitioning to red
Bearish crossovers in Wave Trend Oscillator from overbought territory
Automated Risk Management
The indicator incorporates comprehensive risk management through ATR-based calculations. Stop losses are automatically positioned at 3x ATR distance from entry points, while three progressive take profit targets are established at 1x, 2x, and 3x ATR multiples respectively. All risk management levels are clearly displayed on the chart using colored lines and informative labels.
When trend direction changes, the system automatically clears previous risk levels and generates new calculations, ensuring all risk parameters remain current and relevant to existing market conditions.
Alert and Notification System
Comprehensive alert framework includes trend change notifications with complete trade setup details, squeeze release alerts for breakout opportunity identification, and trend weakness warnings for active position management. Alert messages contain specific trading pair information, timeframe specifications, and all relevant entry and exit level data.
Implementation Guidelines
Timeframe Selection: Higher timeframes including 4-hour and daily charts provide the most reliable signals for position trading strategies. One-hour charts demonstrate good performance for day trading applications, while 15-30 minute timeframes enable scalping approaches with enhanced risk management requirements.
Risk Management Integration: Limit individual trade risk to 1-2% of total capital using the automatically calculated stop loss levels for precise position sizing. Implement systematic profit-taking at each target level while adjusting stop loss positions to protect accumulated gains.
Market Volatility Adaptation: The indicator's ATR-based calculations automatically adjust to changing market volatility conditions. During high volatility periods, risk management levels appropriately widen, while low volatility conditions result in tighter risk parameters.
Optimization Techniques
Combine indicator signals with fundamental support and resistance level analysis for enhanced signal validation. Monitor volume patterns to confirm breakout strength, particularly when Squeeze Momentum signals develop. Maintain awareness of scheduled economic events that may influence market behavior independent of technical indicator signals.
The multi-component design provides internal signal confirmation through multiple alignment requirements, significantly reducing false signal occurrence while maintaining reasonable trade frequency for active trading strategies.
Technical Specifications
The Wave Trend Oscillator utilizes customizable channel length (default 10) and average length (default 21) parameters for optimal market sensitivity. Supertrend calculations employ ATR period of 10 with factor multiplier of 2.5 for balanced signal quality. Squeeze Momentum analysis uses Bollinger Band length of 20 periods with 2.0 multiplication factor, combined with Keltner Channel length of 20 periods and 1.5 multiplication factor.
Conclusion
The Mutanabby_AI OSC+ST+SQZMOM indicator provides a systematic approach to technical market analysis through the integration of proven oscillator, trend, and momentum components. Success requires thorough understanding of each element's functionality and disciplined implementation of proper risk management principles.
Practice with demo trading accounts before live implementation to develop familiarity with signal interpretation and trade management procedures. The indicator's systematic approach effectively reduces emotional decision-making while providing clear, objective guidelines for trade entry, management, and exit strategies across various market conditions.
Momentum Regression [BackQuant]Momentum Regression
The Momentum Regression is an advanced statistical indicator built to empower quants, strategists, and technically inclined traders with a robust visual and quantitative framework for analyzing momentum effects in financial markets. Unlike traditional momentum indicators that rely on raw price movements or moving averages, this tool leverages a volatility-adjusted linear regression model (y ~ x) to uncover and validate momentum behavior over a user-defined lookback window.
Purpose & Design Philosophy
Momentum is a core anomaly in quantitative finance — an effect where assets that have performed well (or poorly) continue to do so over short to medium-term horizons. However, this effect can be noisy, regime-dependent, and sometimes spurious.
The Momentum Regression is designed as a pre-strategy analytical tool to help you filter and verify whether statistically meaningful and tradable momentum exists in a given asset. Its architecture includes:
Volatility normalization to account for differences in scale and distribution.
Regression analysis to model the relationship between past and present standardized returns.
Deviation bands to highlight overbought/oversold zones around the predicted trendline.
Statistical summary tables to assess the reliability of the detected momentum.
Core Concepts and Calculations
The model uses the following:
Independent variable (x): The volatility-adjusted return over the chosen momentum period.
Dependent variable (y): The 1-bar lagged log return, also adjusted for volatility.
A simple linear regression is performed over a large lookback window (default: 1000 bars), which reveals the slope and intercept of the momentum line. These values are then used to construct:
A predicted momentum trendline across time.
Upper and lower deviation bands , representing ±n standard deviations of the regression residuals (errors).
These visual elements help traders judge how far current returns deviate from the modeled momentum trend, similar to Bollinger Bands but derived from a regression model rather than a moving average.
Key Metrics Provided
On each update, the indicator dynamically displays:
Momentum Slope (β₁): Indicates trend direction and strength. A higher absolute value implies a stronger effect.
Intercept (β₀): The predicted return when x = 0.
Pearson’s R: Correlation coefficient between x and y.
R² (Coefficient of Determination): Indicates how well the regression line explains the variance in y.
Standard Error of Residuals: Measures dispersion around the trendline.
t-Statistic of β₁: Used to evaluate statistical significance of the momentum slope.
These statistics are presented in a top-right summary table for immediate interpretation. A bottom-right signal table also summarizes key takeaways with visual indicators.
Features and Inputs
✅ Volatility-Adjusted Momentum : Reduces distortions from noisy price spikes.
✅ Custom Lookback Control : Set the number of bars to analyze regression.
✅ Extendable Trendlines : For continuous visualization into the future.
✅ Deviation Bands : Optional ±σ multipliers to detect abnormal price action.
✅ Contextual Tables : Help determine strength, direction, and significance of momentum.
✅ Separate Pane Design : Cleanly isolates statistical momentum from price chart.
How It Helps Traders
📉 Quantitative Strategy Validation:
Use the regression results to confirm whether a momentum-based strategy is worth pursuing on a specific asset or timeframe.
🔍 Regime Detection:
Track when momentum breaks down or reverses. Slope changes, drops in R², or weak t-stats can signal regime shifts.
📊 Trade Filtering:
Avoid false positives by entering trades only when momentum is both statistically significant and directionally favorable.
📈 Backtest Preparation:
Before running costly simulations, use this tool to pre-screen assets for exploitable return structures.
When to Use It
Before building or deploying a momentum strategy : Test if momentum exists and is statistically reliable.
During market transitions : Detect early signs of fading strength or reversal.
As part of an edge-stacking framework : Combine with other filters such as volatility compression, volume surges, or macro filters.
Conclusion
The Momentum Regression indicator offers a powerful fusion of statistical analysis and visual interpretation. By combining volatility-adjusted returns with real-time linear regression modeling, it helps quantify and qualify one of the most studied and traded anomalies in finance: momentum.
Rolling Log Returns [BackQuant]Rolling Log Returns
The Rolling Log Returns indicator is a versatile tool designed to help traders, quants, and data-driven analysts evaluate the dynamics of price changes using logarithmic return analysis. Widely adopted in quantitative finance, log returns offer several mathematical and statistical advantages over simple returns, making them ideal for backtesting, portfolio optimization, volatility modeling, and risk management.
What Are Log Returns?
In quantitative finance, logarithmic returns are defined as:
ln(Pₜ / Pₜ₋₁)
or for rolling periods:
ln(Pₜ / Pₜ₋ₙ)
where P represents price and n is the rolling lookback window.
Log returns are preferred because:
They are time additive : returns over multiple periods can be summed.
They allow for easier statistical modeling , especially when assuming normally distributed returns.
They behave symmetrically for gains and losses, unlike arithmetic returns.
They normalize percentage changes, making cross-asset or cross-timeframe comparisons more consistent.
Indicator Overview
The Rolling Log Returns indicator computes log returns either on a standard (1-period) basis or using a rolling lookback period , allowing users to adapt it to short-term trading or long-term trend analysis.
It also supports a comparison series , enabling traders to compare the return structure of the main charted asset to another instrument (e.g., SPY, BTC, etc.).
Core Features
✅ Return Modes :
Normal Log Returns : Measures ln(price / price ), ideal for day-to-day return analysis.
Rolling Log Returns : Measures ln(price / price ), highlighting price drift over longer horizons.
✅ Comparison Support :
Compare log returns of the primary instrument to another symbol (like an index or ETF).
Useful for relative performance and market regime analysis .
✅ Moving Averages of Returns :
Smooth noisy return series with customizable MA types: SMA, EMA, WMA, RMA, and Linear Regression.
Applicable to both primary and comparison series.
✅ Conditional Coloring :
Returns > 0 are colored green ; returns < 0 are red .
Comparison series gets its own unique color scheme.
✅ Extreme Return Detection :
Highlight unusually large price moves using upper/lower thresholds.
Visually flags abnormal volatility events such as earnings surprises or macroeconomic shocks.
Quantitative Use Cases
🔍 Return Distribution Analysis :
Gain insight into the statistical properties of asset returns (e.g., skewness, kurtosis, tail behavior).
📉 Risk Management :
Use historical return outliers to define drawdown expectations, stress tests, or VaR simulations.
🔁 Strategy Backtesting :
Apply rolling log returns to momentum or mean-reversion models where compounding and consistent scaling matter.
📊 Market Regime Detection :
Identify periods of consistent overperformance/underperformance relative to a benchmark asset.
📈 Signal Engineering :
Incorporate return deltas, moving average crossover of returns, or threshold-based triggers into machine learning pipelines or rule-based systems.
Recommended Settings
Use Normal mode for high-frequency trading signals.
Use Rolling mode for swing or trend-following strategies.
Compare vs. a broad market index (e.g., SPY or QQQ ) to extract relative strength insights.
Set upper and lower thresholds around ±5% for spotting major volatility days.
Conclusion
The Rolling Log Returns indicator transforms raw price action into a statistically sound return series—equipping traders with a professional-grade lens into market behavior. Whether you're conducting exploratory data analysis, building factor models, or visually scanning for outliers, this indicator integrates seamlessly into a modern quant's toolbox.
Cumulative Intraday Volume with Long/Short LabelsThis indicator calculates a running total of volume for each trading day, then shows on the price chart when that total crosses levels you choose. Every day at 6:00 PM Eastern Time, the total goes back to zero so it always reflects only the current day’s activity. From that moment on, each time a new candle appears the indicator looks at whether the candle closed higher than it opened or lower. If it closed higher, the candle’s volume is added to the running total; if it closed lower, the same volume amount is subtracted. As a result, the total becomes positive when buyers have dominated so far today and negative when sellers have dominated.
Because futures markets close at 6 PM ET, the running total resets exactly then, mirroring the way most intraday traders think in terms of a single session. Throughout the day, you will see this running total move up or down according to whether more volume is happening on green or red candles. Once the total goes above a number you specify (for example, one hundred thousand contracts), the indicator will place a small “Long” label at that candle on the main price chart to let you know buying pressure has reached that level. Similarly, once the total goes below a negative number you choose (for example, minus one hundred thousand), a “Short” label will appear at that candle to signal that selling pressure has reached your chosen threshold. You can set these threshold numbers to whatever makes sense for your trading style or the market you follow.
Because raw volume alone never turns negative, this design uses candle direction as a sign. Green candles (where the close is higher than the open) add volume, and red candles (where the close is lower than the open) subtract volume. Summing those signed volume values tells you in a single number whether buying or selling has been stronger so far today. That number resets every evening, so it does not carry over any buying or selling from previous sessions.
Once you have this indicator on your chart, you simply watch the “summed volume” line as it moves throughout the day. If it climbs past your long threshold, you know buyers are firmly in control and a long entry might make sense. If it falls past your short threshold, you know sellers are firmly in control and a short entry might make sense. In quieter markets or times of low volume, you might use a smaller threshold so that even modest buying or selling pressure will trigger a label. During very active periods, a larger threshold will prevent too many signals when volume spikes frequently.
This approach is straightforward but can be surprisingly powerful. It does not rely on complex formulas or hidden statistical measures. Instead, it simply adds and subtracts daily volume based on candle color, then alerts you when that total reaches levels you care about. Over several years of historical testing, this formula has shown an ability to highlight moments when intraday sentiment shifts decisively from buyers to sellers or vice versa. Because the indicator resets every day at 6 PM, it always reflects only today’s sentiment and remains easy to interpret without carrying over past data. You can use it on any intraday timeframe, but it works especially well on five-minute or fifteen-minute charts for futures contracts.
If you want a clear gauge of whether buyers or sellers are dominating in real time, and you prefer a rule-based method rather than a complex model, this indicator gives you exactly that. It shows net buying or selling pressure at a glance, resets each session like most intraday traders do, and marks the moments when that pressure crosses the levels you decide are important. By combining a daily reset with signed volume, you get a single number that tells you precisely what the crowd is doing at any given moment, without any of the guesswork or hidden calculations that more complicated indicators often carry.
Symbol Seasonality Matrix (w/ BTC Base) Symbol Seasonality Matrix (w/ BTC Base)
Compare monthly performance between Bitcoin and any symbol across time
🧠 Overview
This indicator provides a side-by-side monthly return table of Bitcoin (BTCUSD from Bitfinex) and any selected symbol (e.g., ETH, stocks, etc.). It visualizes seasonality patterns, historical performance shifts, and relative trends in a clean matrix layout with dynamic line overlays.
⚙️ Mechanism
BTC Benchmarking:
BTC monthly returns are always shown as a benchmark against the selected chart symbol.
Monthly ROI Calculation:
For each month, the indicator tracks the open and close price and calculates the monthly return using:
(close_end - close_start) / close_start × 100%
It stores both price and return for BTC and the chart symbol.
Table Structure:
Each year is split into two halves:
2023 (Jan ~ Jun) and 2023 (Jul ~ Dec) for clarity.
Color Coding:
Green for positive months
Red for negative months
Monthly trend lines and labels drawn in consistent colors
Background shading per month helps track seasonality
Plot Modes:
regular: raw price
percent: relative % change from the start of selected period
normalized: base=1 scaling to compare trends
Time Range Selector:
You can define start time and end time for comparison — all logic, including table, plots, and highlights, will focus only on this window.
🧭 How to Use
Set the time range:
Choose a meaningful window such as the past 3 years or 2018–2021 to study behavior.
Compare Symbol vs BTC:
Load BTCUSD in a separate chart for baseline.
Switch to ETHUSD, SPY, or any altcoin/equity to view overlayed performance.
Analyze Seasonality:
Look for months with repeated strong/weak performance (e.g., BTC strong in October).
Compare how your asset aligns with BTC trends or diverges.
Choose View Mode:
Use percent to adjust Y-axis scaling and directly compare relative movements.
Use normalized to detect trend correlation without caring about price level.
🔍 Why It’s Useful
Spot seasonal alpha and align entries with favorable months
See if a symbol outperforms or underperforms BTC consistently
Get price-to-return context visually, not just via numbers
Quickly compare assets in real scale or normalized scale
📌 Tip
Try publishing this to a layout with multiple tickers (ETH, SOL, AAPL) to instantly switch comparisons.
Pair with volume-based or macro indicators to layer signals.
Rolling Beta against SPY📈 Pine Script Showcase: Rolling Beta Against SPY
Understanding how your favorite stock or ETF moves in relation to a benchmark like the S&P 500 can offer powerful insights into risk and exposure. This script calculates and visualizes the rolling beta of any asset versus the SPY ETF (which tracks the S&P 500).
🧠 What Is Beta?
Beta measures the sensitivity of an asset's returns to movements in the broader market. A beta of:
- 1.0 means the asset moves in lockstep with SPY,
- >1.0 indicates higher volatility than the market,
- <1.0 implies lower volatility or possible defensive behavior,
- <0 suggests inverse correlation (e.g., hedging instruments).
🧮 How It Works
This script computes rolling beta over a user-defined window (default = 60 periods) using classic linear regression math:
- Calculates daily returns for both the asset and SPY.
- Computes covariance between the two return streams.
- Divides by the variance of SPY returns to get beta.
⚙️ Customization
You can adjust the window size to control the smoothing:
- Shorter windows capture recent volatility changes,
- Longer windows give more stable, long-term estimates.
📊 Visual Output
The script plots the beta series dynamically, allowing you to observe how your asset’s correlation to SPY evolves over time. This is especially useful in regime-change environments or during major macroeconomic shifts.
💡 Use Cases
- Portfolio construction: Understand how your assets co-move with the market.
- Risk management: Detect when beta spikes—potentially signaling higher market sensitivity.
- Market timing: Use beta shifts to infer changing investor sentiment or market structure.
📌 Pro Tip: Combine this rolling beta with volatility, Sharpe ratio, or correlation tracking for a more robust factor-based analysis.
Ready to add a layer of quantitative insight to your chart? Add the script to your watchlist and start analyzing your favorite tickers against SPY today!
CAM | Comparison and Normalisation Indicator Description: "CAM | Comparison and Normalisation" 🌟
Overview 📊
The "CAM | Comparison and Normalisation" indicator is a must-have tool for forex traders! 🚀 It analyzes the strength of a currency pair’s base and quote currencies against the pair’s price movement, using automatic detection, composite calculations, and normalization—all wrapped in a colorful, easy-to-read package. 🎨
How It Works 🛠️
- 🔍 **Automatic Currency Detection**: Instantly spots the base (e.g., EUR in EURUSD) and quote (e.g., USD) currencies—no manual setup needed!
- 💪 **Composite Strength Calculation**: Measures each currency’s power by averaging its rate against 9 major currencies (GBP, EUR, CHF, USD, AUD, CAD, NZD, JPY, NOK). A true strength test! 🏋️♂️
- 📏 **Normalization**: Scales everything with a smart formula (price minus moving average, divided by standard deviation) so base, quote, and pair prices play on the same field. ⚖️
- 🎨 **Dynamic Visualization**:
- Plots 3 normalized lines with unique colors:
- **Base Composite** (e.g., purple for GBP, blue for EUR)
- **Quote Composite** (e.g., green for USD, yellow for JPY)
- **Actual Pair** (⚪ white)
- Adds labels on the last bar (e.g., "Base: GBP" in purple). 🏷️
- 📊 **Performance Histogram**: Shows the base vs. quote strength gap with a green (👍) or red (👎) area chart—adjusted by the pair’s price.
- ⚙️ **Customizable Settings**: Adjust Scaling Period (50), Histogram Scale (0.5), and Levels (1, -1) to fit your style! 🎚️
Benefits 🌈
- 🧠 **Simplified Analysis**: Normalized data cuts through the noise, making trends crystal clear.
- ✅ **Enhanced Decisions**: Colorful lines and histograms spotlight trading signals fast.
- ⏱️ **Time-Saver**: No setup—just drop it on a chart and go!
- 🌍 **Versatile**: Works on any supported pair, with colors adapting automatically (e.g., orange AUD on AUDCAD).
- 👀 **Eye-Catching**: Currency-specific colors (like purple GBP from pound notes) make it fun and easy to follow.
How It Helps Traders 💡
- 📈 **Spot Trends**: See if the base is flexing 💪 or the quote is fading 📉, and how it ties to the pair’s price.
- ⚠️ **Catch Divergences**: Histogram flags when currency strength and price don’t match—hello, opportunity! 🚨
- 🛡️ **Manage Risk**: Normalized values and levels help gauge overbought/oversold zones for smarter stops.
- **Big Picture**: Compare currency strength to pair price for strategic edge, whether scalping or swinging.
Example in Action 🎬
- **GBPUSD Chart**:
- purple GBP line climbs, greenUSD dips, histogram turns green 👍—GBP’s gaining! If the white pair line rises too, it’s a bullish hint.
Conclusion ✨
"CAM | Comparison and Normalisation" turns forex complexity into clear, actionable insights. With its auto-detection, vibrant visuals, and trader-friendly design, it’s your shortcut to smarter trades! 📈💰
CAM| Bar volatility and statsCAPRICORN ASSETS MANAGEMENT
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CAM | Bar Volatility and Stats Indicator
The CAM | Bar Volatility and Stats indicator is designed to track historical price movements, analyzing bar volatility and key statistical trends in financial instruments. By evaluating past bars, it provides insights into market dynamics, helping traders assess volatility, trend strength, and momentum patterns.
Key Features & Functionality:
✅ Volatility Analysis – Measures historical volatility by calculating the average price range per bar and displaying it in pips.
✅ Bull & Bear Bar Statistics – Tracks the number of bullish and bearish bars within a given lookback period, including their respective percentages.
✅ Consecutive Bar Sequences – Identifies and records the longest streaks of consecutive bullish or bearish bars, providing insights into market trends.
✅ Average Volatility by Trend – Computes separate volatility values for bullish and bearish bars, helping traders understand trend-based price behavior.
✅ Real-Time Labeling – Displays a live statistics summary directly on the chart, updating dynamically with each new bar.
Benefits for Traders:
📊 Enhanced Market Insight – Quickly assess market conditions, determining whether volatility is increasing or decreasing.
📈 Trend Strength Identification – Identify strong bullish or bearish sequences to improve trade timing and strategy development.
⏳ Better Risk Management – Use historical volatility metrics to fine-tune stop-loss and take-profit levels.
🛠 Customizable Analysis – Adjustable lookback period and display options allow traders to focus on the data that matters most.
This indicator is an essential tool for traders looking to refine their decision-making process by leveraging volatility-based statistics. Whether trading Forex, stocks, or commodities, it provides valuable insights into price action trends and market conditions.
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Normalized Price ComparisonNormalized Price Comparison Indicator Description
The "Normalized Price Comparison" indicator is designed to provide traders with a visual tool for comparing the price movements of up to three different financial instruments on a common scale, despite their potentially different price ranges. Here's how it works:
Features:
Normalization: This indicator normalizes the closing prices of each symbol to a scale between 0 and 1 over a user-defined period. This normalization process allows for the comparison of price trends regardless of the absolute price levels, making it easier to spot relative movements and trends.
Crossing Alert: It features an alert functionality that triggers when the normalized price lines of the first two symbols (Symbol 1 and Symbol 2) cross each other. This can be particularly useful for identifying potential trading opportunities when one asset's relative performance changes against another.
Customization: Users can input up to three symbols for analysis. The normalization period can be adjusted, allowing flexibility in how historical data is considered for the scaling process. This period determines how many past bars are used to calculate the minimum and maximum prices for normalization.
Visual Representation: The indicator plots these normalized prices in a separate pane below the main chart. Each symbol's normalized price is represented by a distinct colored line:
Symbol 1: Blue line
Symbol 2: Red line
Symbol 3: Green line
Use Cases:
Relative Performance Analysis: Ideal for investors or traders who want to compare how different assets are performing relative to each other over time, without the distraction of absolute price differences.
Divergence Detection: Useful for spotting divergences where one asset might be outperforming or underperforming compared to others, potentially signaling changes in market trends or investment opportunities.
Crossing Strategy: The alert for when Symbol 1 and Symbol 2's normalized lines cross can be used as a part of a trading strategy, signaling potential entry or exit points based on relative price movements.
Limitations:
Static Alert Messages: Due to Pine Script's constraints, the alert messages cannot dynamically include the names of the symbols being compared. The alert will always mention "Symbol 1" and "Symbol 2" crossing.
Performance: Depending on the timeframe and the number of symbols, performance might be affected, especially on lower timeframes with high data frequency.
This indicator is particularly beneficial for those interested in multi-asset analysis, offering a streamlined way to observe and react to relative price movements in a visually coherent manner. It's a powerful tool for enhancing your trading or investment analysis by focusing on trends and relationships rather than raw price data.
MeanReversion - LogReturn/Vola ZScoreShows the z-Score of log-return (blue line) and volatility (black line). In statistics, the z-score is the number of standard deviations by which a value of a raw score is above or below the mean value.
This indicator aggregates z-score based on two indicators:
MeanReversion by Logarithmic Returns
MeanReversion by Volatility
Change the time period in bars for longer or shorter time frames. At a daily chart 252 mean on trading year, 21 mean one trading month.
Guassian Distribution Forecast [prediction intervals]The Indicator
The Indicator combines volatility and frequency distributions to forecast an area of possible price expansion with an approximate confidence interval / level and level of significance (significance level).
The Script Formula
Additional comments
To alter the models forecasting precision to reflect a given confidence interval, e.g the 90% confidence level (C.L.), use the 1.64 multiplier (toggle value in "Standard normal distribution sd" setting), to use a specific C.L., e.g. the 85th percentile either search for this on google, or calculate it yourself using a Standard Normal Distribution Probability table. Additionaly volatility may be changed by toggling the lookback period setting, this can be thought of as widening the distribution tails.
The look forward parameter is currently fixed at 20, this is because it does not currently work correctly with higher integers, I will try resolve this problem and any other bugs as soon as possible
Rocket Grid Algorithm - The Quant ScienceThe Rocket Grid Algorithm is a trading strategy that enables traders to engage in both long and short selling strategies. The script allows traders to backtest their strategies with a date range of their choice, in addition to selecting the desired strategy - either SMA Based Crossunder or SMA Based Crossover.
The script is a combination of trend following and short-term mean reversing strategies. Trend following involves identifying the current market trend and riding it for as long as possible until it changes direction. This type of strategy can be used over a medium- to long-term time horizon, typically several months to a few years.
Short-term mean reversing, on the other hand, involves taking advantage of short-term price movements that deviate from the average price. This type of strategy is usually applied over a much shorter time horizon, such as a few days to a few weeks. By rapidly entering and exiting positions, the strategy seeks to capture small, quick gains in volatile market conditions.
Overall, the script blends the best of both worlds by combining the long-term stability of trend following with the quick gains of short-term mean reversing, allowing traders to potentially benefit from both short-term and long-term market trends.
Traders can configure the start and end dates, months, and years, and choose the length of the data they want to work with. Additionally, they can set the percentage grid and the upper and lower destroyers to manage their trades effectively. The script also calculates the Simple Moving Average of the chosen data length and plots it on the chart.
The trigger for entering a trade is defined as a crossunder or crossover of the close price with the Simple Moving Average. Once the trigger is activated, the script calculates the total percentage of the side and creates a grid range. The grid range is then divided into ten equal parts, with each part representing a unique grid level. The script keeps track of each grid level, and once the close price reaches the grid level, it opens a trade in the specified direction.
The equity management strategy in the script involves a dynamic allocation of equity to each trade. The first order placed uses 10% of the available equity, while each subsequent order uses 1% less of the available equity. This results in the allocation of 9% for the second order, 8% for the third order, and so on, until a maximum of 10 open trades. This approach allows for risk management and can help to limit potential losses.
Overall, the Rocket Grid Algorithm is a flexible and powerful trading strategy that can be customized to meet the specific needs of individual traders. Its user-friendly interface and robust backtesting capabilities make it an excellent tool for traders looking to enhance their trading experience.
Grid Indicator - The Quant ScienceQuickly draw a 10-level grid on your chart with our open-source tool.
Our grid tool offers a unique solution to traders looking to maximize their profits in volatile market conditions. With its advanced features, you can create customized grids based on your preferred start price and line distance, allowing you to easily execute trades and capitalize on price movements. The tool works automatically, freeing up your time to focus on other important aspects of your trading strategy.
The benefits of using this tool are numerous. Firstly, it eliminates the need for manual calculation, making the analysis process much more efficient. Secondly, the automatic nature of the tool ensures that each grids are draw at precisely prices, giving you the best possible chance of maximizing your analysis. Finally, the ability to easily customize grids means that you can adapt your strategy quickly and effectively, even in rapidly changing market conditions.
So why wait? Take control of your trading and start using our innovative grid tool today! With its advanced features and ease of use, it's the perfect solution for traders of all levels looking to take their trading to the next level.
HOW TO USE
Using it is easy. Add the script to your chart and set the price and distance between the grids.
Probabilities Module - The Quant Science This module can be integrate in your code strategy or indicator and will help you to calculate the percentage probability on specific event inside your strategy. The main goal is improve and simplify the workflow if you are trying to build a quantitative strategy or indicator based on statistics or reinforcement model.
Logic
The script made a simulation inside your code based on a single event. For single event mean a trading logic composed by three different objects: entry, take profit, stop loss.
The script scrape in the past through a look back function and return the positive percentage probability about the positive event inside the data sample. In this way you are able to understand and calculate how many time (in percentage term) the conditions inside the single event are positive, helping to create your statistical edge.
You can adjust the look back period in you user interface.
How can set up the module for your use case
At the top of the script you can find:
1. entry_condition : replace the default condition with your specific entry condition.
2. TPcondition_exit : replace the default condition with your specific take profit condition.
3. SLcondition_exit : replace the default condition with your specific stop loss condition.
Extreme Volume Support Resistance LevelsExtreme Volume Support Resistance Levels are S/R levels(zones, basically), based on extreme volume .
Settings:
Lookback -- number of bars, which algorithm will be using;
Volume Threshold Period -- period of MA (Volume MA), which smoothers volume in order to find the extremes;
Volume Threshold Multiplier -- multiplier for Volume MA, which "lift" Volume MA and thus will provide the algorithm with more accurate extreme volume ;
Number of zones to show -- number of last S/R zones, which will be shown on the chart.
RU:
Extreme Volume Support Resistance Levels — это уровни S/R (зоны, в основном), основанные на избыточном объеме.
Параметры:
Lookback -- число баров, которое алгоритм будет использовать для расчётов;
Volume Threshold Period -- период MA (Volume MA), которая сглаживает объем для нахождения экстремумов объёма;
Volume Threshold Multiplier -- множитель для Volume MA, который "поднимает" Volume MA и тем самым обеспечивает алгоритм более точными значениями экстремального объёма;
Количество зон для отображения -- количество оставшихся зон S/R, которые отображаются на графике.
Real Cummulative Delta (New TV Function)Thanks to the new TradingView indicator Up/Down Volume, it is now possible to get accurate information on Agression (market buying vs market selling)
However, as they only provide the value of delta, I've made this indicator to show the cummulative value, in the form of candles.
It is great to detect divergences in the macro and in the micro scale (As in divergences in each candle and divergences in higher or lower tops or bottoms)
Hope you can make good use of it!
