BTC/USD — Liquidity Manipulation at 19:00 IST (US Market Open)BTC/USD displayed a classic liquidity manipulation pattern around 19:00 IST, coinciding with the US market open. Price engineered a sweep above the local range high, triggering breakout liquidity before an aggressive reversal. This aligns with typical New York session behavior, where volatility expansion targets both sides of intraday liquidity zones.
The sharp rejection post-sweep indicates smart money distribution above a previous structural high, followed by a clean displacement move to the downside. The subsequent reaction near the demand zone around 121,000 reflects algorithmic re-balancing and potential accumulation after liquidity clearance.
Monitoring the 121,000–121,200 support zone is key for potential long setups if price structure shifts bullish; otherwise, failure to reclaim 122,000 may continue the short-term bearish flow.
Trade ideas
BTC/USD — 0.786 Fibonacci Rejection Signals Distribution ZoneBitcoin (BTC/USD) retraced sharply after reaching its recent swing high near 124,930. The price action formed a clear correction toward the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which acted as a strong resistance zone around 124,038. The market then reversed downward, confirming this level as a potential short-term supply area.
Currently, BTC is attempting a recovery after finding support near 120,741 (Fib 0 level). A sustained move above the 0.382–0.5 retracement range could indicate renewed bullish momentum, while rejection below 0.786 may keep the pair under pressure.
This setup highlights how the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level serves as a key reaction point for trend continuation or reversal in the current structure.
How Liquidity Zones in Forex Mirror in Bitcoin Markets?Hello Traders!
If you’ve studied liquidity concepts in Forex trading , you might’ve noticed how similar they behave in the crypto market , especially in Bitcoin.
Both markets are driven by liquidity and order flow, not random price movements.
Let’s understand how these two worlds mirror each other and how you can use that knowledge to trade smarter.
1. What Are Liquidity Zones?
Liquidity zones are price areas where a large number of orders are placed, stop losses, buy/sell limits, or pending entries.
Institutions and big players target these zones to execute their large positions with minimal slippage.
That’s why price often “hunts” highs or lows before the real move starts.
2. Liquidity Behavior in Forex
In pairs like EUR/USD or GBP/USD, liquidity often builds near session highs and lows.
Smart money pushes price to these zones to trigger retail stops and grab liquidity.
Once liquidity is collected, the market usually reverses in the opposite direction.
3. The Same Psychology in Bitcoin
Bitcoin may not be a currency pair, but it runs on the same emotional patterns, fear, greed, and impatience.
Liquidity clusters near obvious highs/lows, round numbers (like $60,000 or $50,000), and breakout points.
Big players hunt these zones in the same way as in Forex, because crypto markets are even more sentiment-driven.
4. How to Identify These Zones on BTC Charts
Mark previous day’s highs and lows, these are classic liquidity targets.
Check where price made impulsive moves in the past; those areas often have resting orders.
Look for quick “fakeouts” beyond these levels followed by strong rejection, a sign liquidity was grabbed.
5. How to Trade the Mirroring Pattern
Wait for liquidity grab candles (spikes above/below key levels).
Enter on confirmation of reversal (engulfing or pin bar).
Place stops beyond the liquidity wick and target the next range midpoint.
Rahul’s Tip:
Whether it’s Forex or Bitcoin, the chart structure changes, but human behavior doesn’t .
If you understand how liquidity works in one market, you can easily read the traps in another.
Conclusion:
Liquidity is the universal language of smart money.
The same tricks used in Forex, fakeouts, stop hunts, and reversals, repeat daily in Bitcoin charts.
Once you learn to spot them, you’ll see that both markets are mirrors of each other in how they trap and move traders.
If this post helped you see the connection between Forex and Bitcoin, like it, drop your view in comments, and follow for more deep market insights!
Bitcoin – Rising Higher, But the Real Battle Is Yet to Begin!Bitcoin continues to trade inside a rising structure , respecting both its long-term support and resistance channels. The trend remains healthy as long as price holds above the 116,000–116,500 support zone , which has been tested multiple times with strong buying reactions.
Currently, BTC is approaching a major resistance confluence zone . The chart clearly shows that every previous rejection near this zone has led to profit-booking, but this time the structure looks different, buyers are more confident, and momentum is building from the base levels .
If Bitcoin manages to sustain above the minor resistance area , the road opens towards 131,500 levels and beyond . However, traders should remember, such breakouts demand patience, not prediction. The stronger hands will always think in cycles, not candles .
The psychology of the market here is simple: every pullback to the rising support attracts accumulation by smart money , while emotional traders exit too early. This phase often separates investors from speculators.
Rahul’s Tip : Don’t fear the dips. Fear missing the structure that defines the entire bull leg. If the support holds, this could be the foundation of the next major BTC wave.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Please do your own research or consult your financial advisor before investing.
Analysis By @TraderRahulPal (TradingView Moderator) | More analysis & educational content on my profile
👉 If you found this helpful, don’t forget to like and follow for regular updates.
BTC is developing ~4R down side tradeBTC has done MSS on 4h time frame and showing rejection at 4H FVG after displacement. We can see a good downside trade once below FVG is mitigated and changed to iFVG. We need to wait for price getting into right zones.
1. Currently price is moving inside 4H FVG after displacement and showing rejection as well.
2. Price should break below FVG and retest.
3. There are several SIBIs which may be target for it and further buy side reversal trade.
4. RSI has already shown bearish divergence. Which support coming down move.
5. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVG and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF.
6. Price should show rejection/reversal in LTF (5m,1m) at FVG zone.
7. Take the trade only once clear any of the entry model i.e. turtle soup. iFVG break, CDS or MSS happens on LTF
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and ~4R trade scenario.
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BTC against USD 1 Week Time Frame 📊 Weekly Technical Levels
Resistance Levels:
$124,652.59
$127,266.08
$129,248.44
Support Levels:
$120,056.73
$118,074.38
$115,460.88
These levels are based on Barchart's technical analysis and are derived from the most recent data available.
📈 Technical Indicators
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 61.95%, indicating that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold.
Stochastic Oscillator: Both the %K and %D lines are in the 80% range, suggesting that Bitcoin is in an overbought condition, which could precede a pullback.
Average True Range (ATR): The 9-day ATR is 3,316.77, indicating a daily price movement of approximately 2.73%.
Directional Movement Index (DMI): The +DI is at 35.72, and the -DI is at 10.17, suggesting a strong bullish trend.
🔮 Market Outlook
Analysts project that Bitcoin may reach up to $126,865 within the next week, with a potential target of $129,753 over the next four weeks.
⚠️ Risk Considerations
While the long-term outlook appears bullish, it's essential to monitor key support levels. A drop below $120,000 could signal a short-term correction. Additionally, the stochastic oscillator indicates an overbought condition, which may lead to a pullback.
Consumption Trends in the Indian Trading Market1. Introduction
Consumption trends refer to the patterns and behaviors exhibited by consumers in terms of purchasing goods and services over time. In India, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, consumption plays a pivotal role in driving economic growth. Retail, e-commerce, FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods), luxury goods, and digital services are some of the major sectors influenced by consumer spending patterns.
In recent years, consumption trends in India have shifted due to urbanization, rising disposable incomes, digital penetration, and changing lifestyles. Analyzing these trends provides valuable insights for traders and businesses to align their strategies with market demands.
2. Factors Driving Consumption Trends
Several macro and microeconomic factors influence consumption in India:
2.1 Rising Disposable Income
India’s growing middle class has more disposable income than ever before. With steady economic growth and higher employment rates, consumers are spending more on discretionary items like electronics, fashion, entertainment, and travel.
2.2 Urbanization
Rapid urbanization has created a surge in modern retail consumption. Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities have witnessed increased demand for branded products, premium services, and online retail platforms.
2.3 Digital Transformation
Digital technology has reshaped consumer behavior in India. E-commerce platforms such as Amazon, Flipkart, and Myntra have transformed the way people shop. Digital payments, mobile apps, and online promotions have contributed to convenience and impulse buying.
2.4 Lifestyle Changes
The younger generation, especially millennials and Gen Z, prioritize experiences over material goods. Their consumption patterns lean towards travel, wellness, fitness, and technology-driven products.
2.5 Government Policies
Government initiatives like Digital India, Make in India, and financial inclusion programs have increased accessibility to products and services across urban and rural regions, boosting overall consumption.
3. Consumption Patterns by Sector
3.1 FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods)
FMCG remains a cornerstone of Indian consumption. Staples like food, beverages, personal care products, and household goods dominate spending. Recent trends show a shift toward organic, health-oriented, and premium products.
Rising Health Awareness: Consumers prefer products with natural ingredients and low sugar/fat content.
E-commerce Impact: Online grocery shopping has surged, with platforms like BigBasket and Grofers leading the way.
3.2 E-commerce and Digital Consumption
E-commerce has revolutionized the Indian market, making products accessible beyond urban areas.
Growth of Mobile Commerce: Mobile apps drive more than 70% of e-commerce transactions.
Discount Culture: Festive sales and heavy discounts influence consumer behavior, leading to higher transaction volumes.
Niche Segments: Fashion, electronics, beauty products, and digital content subscriptions are seeing high online demand.
3.3 Luxury and Lifestyle Products
Luxury goods consumption has grown steadily among urban Indians, reflecting aspirations and status symbols.
Premium Brands: Demand for high-end automobiles, watches, and fashion brands is rising.
Experiential Consumption: People prefer experiences like fine dining, vacations, and wellness retreats over material possessions.
3.4 Technology and Electronics
Digital adoption drives significant consumption in electronics, including smartphones, laptops, and smart home devices.
Affordability: Competitive pricing of smartphones and appliances has widened consumer reach.
Integration with Lifestyle: Smart devices now complement entertainment, work, and fitness trends.
3.5 Rural Consumption
Rural India represents a massive consumption base, accounting for nearly half of total consumer spending.
Staple Goods: Food, FMCG, and agricultural products dominate.
Emerging Demand: Appliances, motorcycles, mobile phones, and digital services are becoming popular as connectivity improves.
4. Emerging Consumption Trends
4.1 Sustainability and Eco-consciousness
Consumers increasingly prefer sustainable and eco-friendly products. Brands focusing on packaging, renewable resources, and green initiatives gain trust.
4.2 Subscription-Based Models
Subscription services for streaming, meal kits, and curated products are gaining traction. Consumers appreciate convenience and customization.
4.3 Omni-channel Retail
Consumers expect a seamless experience across offline and online channels. Retailers offering click-and-collect, virtual try-ons, and personalized services are benefiting.
4.4 Experiential Spending
Experience-driven consumption, including travel, fitness, and leisure, is surpassing traditional material spending, especially among millennials.
4.5 Influence of Social Media
Social media platforms heavily influence purchasing decisions. Influencer marketing, short video apps, and online reviews have become key drivers of consumption.
5. Impact on Indian Trading Market
5.1 Growth of Retail and E-commerce
The retail sector is witnessing unprecedented growth due to changing consumption trends. Organized retail chains, supermarkets, and online platforms are expanding rapidly.
5.2 Increased Investor Interest
High consumption fuels business revenues, making sectors like FMCG, e-commerce, and technology attractive for investors. Stock performance of companies catering to changing consumer behavior is closely tied to these trends.
5.3 Supply Chain Evolution
Consumption trends are reshaping supply chain strategies. Efficient logistics, warehouse networks, and last-mile delivery are critical to meet demand.
5.4 Dynamic Pricing and Promotions
Companies adopt dynamic pricing and targeted promotions to influence buying patterns, particularly in e-commerce and FMCG sectors.
5.5 Product Innovation
Consumer expectations push companies to innovate continuously, focusing on personalization, convenience, and sustainability.
6. Challenges and Risks
Despite robust growth, consumption trends face challenges:
Economic Uncertainty: Inflation, interest rates, and global economic conditions can impact consumer spending.
Rural Penetration Barriers: Limited infrastructure and financial literacy may restrict rural consumption growth.
Regulatory Hurdles: Taxation and compliance requirements can affect pricing and margins.
Changing Preferences: Rapid shifts in consumer preferences may lead to inventory and investment risks for businesses.
7. Future Outlook
India’s consumption trends indicate a promising future for traders, investors, and companies. Key predictions include:
Rising Digital Consumption: Continued growth in e-commerce and online services.
Premiumization: Increased demand for premium, lifestyle, and health-oriented products.
Rural Market Expansion: Improved infrastructure and digital access will unlock rural consumption potential.
Sustainable Consumption: Brands focusing on eco-friendly products will capture long-term consumer loyalty.
Technology Integration: AI-driven personalization, AR/VR retail experiences, and smart devices will reshape buying patterns.
Overall, India’s consumption-driven market will remain a critical engine of economic growth, innovation, and global trading opportunities. Businesses and investors who anticipate these trends and adapt accordingly are likely to gain a significant competitive advantage.
8. Conclusion
The Indian trading market is evolving rapidly, with consumption trends at its core. From urban tech-savvy buyers to rural emerging consumers, the diversity of preferences demands that traders and companies remain agile. Understanding these trends enables businesses to innovate, investors to strategize, and policymakers to facilitate sustainable growth.
India’s consumption story is one of opportunity, fueled by demographic advantage, technological adoption, and a culture of aspiration. The next decade promises to redefine how goods and services are traded, consumed, and valued across the subcontinent.
BTC/USD: Structure Shift Confirmed - Bearish CHoCH Break"The previous analysis highlighted the Minor and Major CHoCH levels as key lines in the sand for the recent uptrend. The market has now decisively broken BELOW both levels.
This action confirms a Bearish Change of Character in the market structure (on the chart), signaling a failure of the current bullish order flow.
Minor CHoCH Break : Confirmed the initial weakness and short-term pullback.
Major CHoCH Break : Confirms the structural shift, indicating that the corrective move is likely to be deeper than a simple consolidation.
We should now anticipate a shift in price action: making Lower Highs and Lower Lows . The previous support levels may now act as resistance. Looking for the next key demand zones for a potential bounce, but the immediate bias is now BEARISH ."
BTCUSD - BITCOIN's Measured MoveCMP: 121000
TF: Daily
I don't trade this instrument. I am publishing this from the technical pattern perspective.
The rounding bottom target has been achieved 100% target at 122000 and since then the price is getting rejected at that level (almost three times now)..
Are we going to reject from here or the next round of buying to push the price towards the next target zone of 140000 measured move range of 2025 (Orange)
We could see an Ending diagonal formation at the top. Lets see how this plays out..
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered Analyst and this is not a trading advise. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions. Please consider my views only to get a different perspective (FOR or AGAINST your views). Please don't trade FNO based on my views. If you like my analysis and learnt something from it, please give a BOOST. Feel free to express your thoughts and questions in the comments section.
BTC/USD: Inside the Channel - Watch for CHoCH"BTC/USD continues to trade within this well-defined ascending parallel channel that has been in place since late September.
We've seen a strong push from the lows, bringing the price right up to the top of the channel's resistance area. The market structure is now tight.
The recent, smaller pullback established a Minor Change of Character (CHoCH) level. A break below this could signal an immediate shallow pullback inside the channel.
The Major CHoCH level is the critical support. Losing this would suggest a more significant corrective move, potentially targeting the channel's midline or lower support.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #CHoCH #TradingChannel#HenishMavani
Investing in ESG: Shaping Profits with PurposeUnderstanding ESG Investing
ESG investing refers to the integration of three core dimensions into investment analysis and decision-making: Environmental, Social, and Governance factors. Each element provides a lens through which investors assess companies, industries, and projects, ensuring that investments contribute positively to society while also delivering sustainable financial returns.
Environmental Factors (E): This aspect evaluates how companies interact with the natural environment. Key considerations include carbon footprint, climate change mitigation, energy efficiency, resource usage, waste management, pollution control, and biodiversity conservation. Investors look for companies that proactively reduce their environmental impact, implement sustainable practices, and innovate in green technologies.
Social Factors (S): The social dimension examines how businesses manage relationships with employees, suppliers, customers, and the broader community. It encompasses labor standards, workplace diversity and inclusion, human rights, consumer protection, community engagement, and social responsibility initiatives. Companies that prioritize positive social outcomes are often seen as more resilient and trusted by stakeholders.
Governance Factors (G): Governance addresses the internal structure, policies, and practices that guide corporate behavior. This includes board composition, executive compensation, shareholder rights, transparency, ethics, anti-corruption measures, and regulatory compliance. Strong governance frameworks reduce risks associated with mismanagement, fraud, and reputational damage.
By integrating ESG factors into investment strategies, investors seek not only financial returns but also long-term sustainability, resilience, and alignment with ethical and social values.
The Growth of ESG Investing
Over the past decade, ESG investing has witnessed exponential growth. According to industry reports, global ESG assets under management (AUM) surpassed $35 trillion in 2025, reflecting a steady increase in investor demand. Several factors have driven this surge:
Global Awareness of Climate Change: Rising concerns about global warming, extreme weather events, and environmental degradation have heightened the need for sustainable investments.
Regulatory Support: Governments and regulatory bodies worldwide have introduced policies encouraging ESG disclosure and responsible investing. The European Union’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) and similar frameworks in the US and Asia have created transparency and accountability for ESG practices.
Investor Demand for Ethical Choices: Millennials and Gen Z, who are becoming a dominant force in wealth accumulation, prioritize sustainability and social responsibility. Their investment choices reflect a desire to create positive impact while generating returns.
Financial Performance and Risk Mitigation: Numerous studies suggest that ESG-focused companies often outperform their peers in the long term, demonstrating lower volatility, reduced risk exposure, and enhanced operational efficiency.
ESG Investment Strategies
Investors have multiple approaches to incorporating ESG principles into their portfolios. These strategies range from selective exclusion to proactive engagement:
Negative Screening: This involves excluding companies or industries that fail to meet ESG criteria. Commonly excluded sectors include tobacco, firearms, fossil fuels, and companies with poor labor practices.
Positive Screening: Investors identify companies that excel in ESG performance, emphasizing leaders in environmental stewardship, social impact, or governance practices.
Thematic Investing: This strategy focuses on specific ESG-related themes, such as renewable energy, clean technology, gender diversity, or affordable housing.
Impact Investing: Beyond financial returns, impact investing actively seeks measurable social or environmental impact. Examples include financing green infrastructure projects or supporting social enterprises.
ESG Integration: Here, ESG factors are incorporated into traditional financial analysis to assess risk and return profiles comprehensively. This approach recognizes that ESG risks can directly affect financial performance.
Active Ownership & Engagement: Investors engage with company management to encourage ESG improvements. Shareholder activism and proxy voting can influence corporate policies toward sustainability.
Benefits of ESG Investing
Long-Term Financial Performance: Companies with strong ESG practices often demonstrate operational efficiency, innovation, and risk management, leading to sustainable financial growth.
Risk Mitigation: ESG integration reduces exposure to regulatory, environmental, and reputational risks. For example, companies with robust governance frameworks are less likely to face scandals or legal penalties.
Positive Societal Impact: ESG investing aligns capital with societal goals, supporting climate action, social equality, and ethical business practices.
Attracting Capital: Companies with strong ESG ratings may attract long-term institutional investors, resulting in increased demand for shares and potentially higher valuations.
Regulatory Compliance: ESG-focused companies are better positioned to navigate evolving regulations related to environmental protection, labor laws, and corporate governance.
Challenges in ESG Investing
Despite its growth and benefits, ESG investing also faces challenges:
Data Quality and Standardization: ESG data is often inconsistent, unverified, or based on self-reported metrics. This makes comparison across companies and industries difficult.
Greenwashing Risks: Some companies exaggerate ESG achievements for marketing purposes without making substantial changes, misleading investors.
Performance Trade-offs: Critics argue that prioritizing ESG criteria may limit returns, particularly in sectors where sustainable practices are costly or less developed.
Dynamic Standards: ESG definitions and metrics are evolving, making it challenging for investors to establish clear and consistent benchmarks.
Complexity in Measuring Impact: Quantifying social and environmental outcomes can be subjective, requiring robust evaluation methods.
Global ESG Trends
The global ESG landscape continues to evolve, shaped by technological innovation, regulatory frameworks, and investor priorities:
Green Bonds and Sustainable Finance: Issuance of green bonds and sustainability-linked loans has surged, providing capital for environmentally beneficial projects.
Corporate ESG Reporting: Increasingly, companies disclose ESG metrics in annual reports and sustainability reports, often following frameworks like GRI, SASB, and TCFD.
Integration of AI and Big Data: Technology is enabling investors to analyze ESG data at scale, improving decision-making and transparency.
Cross-Border ESG Investments: Investors are increasingly seeking international opportunities in emerging markets where ESG adoption is accelerating.
Climate Risk Assessment: Physical and transition risks related to climate change are now considered integral to investment decisions, influencing asset allocation and portfolio strategies.
Practical Steps for Investors
For those looking to embrace ESG investing, several practical steps can help:
Define ESG Priorities: Determine which ESG factors align with personal or institutional values, whether environmental protection, social equity, or corporate governance.
Select Appropriate Investment Vehicles: ESG investments are available across stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, green bonds, and private equity. Choose instruments aligned with your strategy and risk tolerance.
Evaluate ESG Ratings: Use independent ESG rating agencies such as MSCI ESG Ratings, Sustainalytics, and Refinitiv to assess company performance.
Diversify ESG Portfolio: Spread investments across sectors and regions to balance risk and capitalize on growth opportunities.
Engage and Monitor: Active investors can influence corporate behavior through engagement, proxy voting, and continuous monitoring of ESG performance.
Stay Updated: ESG trends, regulations, and best practices evolve rapidly. Staying informed ensures alignment with current standards and emerging opportunities.
The Future of ESG Investing
The future of ESG investing is poised for continued growth and integration into mainstream finance. Several trends indicate this trajectory:
Mainstream Institutional Adoption: Pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds are increasingly integrating ESG criteria into their investment mandates.
Enhanced Regulatory Frameworks: Governments worldwide are strengthening ESG disclosure requirements and sustainable finance regulations.
Technological Innovation: AI, blockchain, and big data analytics will improve ESG data accuracy, impact measurement, and reporting transparency.
Increased Focus on Social Equity: Investors are broadening ESG considerations to include human capital development, diversity, equity, and inclusion.
Global Collaboration: International initiatives such as the UN Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) and the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) are standardizing ESG practices and encouraging cross-border investments.
Conclusion
Investing in ESG is not merely a trend; it represents a paradigm shift in how capital interacts with society and the environment. By integrating environmental, social, and governance considerations into investment strategies, investors can achieve a dual objective: generating sustainable financial returns while contributing to a healthier, fairer, and more resilient world. The growth, innovation, and regulatory momentum behind ESG investing signal that it will continue to play a central role in shaping the future of finance, ensuring that profits and purpose go hand in hand.
A strong bullish outlookThe price is currently in a corrective phase, labeled as Wave 4. This consolidation is taking place in the boxed area between roughly $121,000 and $125,000.
A future upward movement is projected as Wave 5. The projection (the cyan line) suggesting the price will break out of the current consolidation and head towards new highs.
A Fibonacci retracement tool is drawn on Wave 3, and the price found support between the 0.382 and 0.5 levels before bouncing. It is currently hovering just below the prior high.
Extension (for Wave 5 Targets): Fibonacci extension levels are used to project potential price targets for the completion of Wave 5. Key targets include:
1.618→$125,449.82
2.618→$127,471.00
3.618→$130,138.25
4.272→$132,429.19
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading significantly above the Tenkan-Sen ($116,776.88), Kijun-Sen ($116,776.95), and the Kumo (Cloud). This is a strong bullish signal, indicating a well-established uptrend.
Immediate support appears to be around the $121,000 level.
Deeper support levels are noted at $109,894.21, $99,516.47, and $94,131.21.
The Fibonacci extension levels are acting as the next potential resistance zones.
This chart is decidedly bullish. Anticipates that the current consolidation phase (Wave 4) will resolve to the upside, initiating the final leg (Wave 5) of this impulse move. The projected targets for this next wave lie between $125,500 and $132,500, with the drawn path pointing towards an even higher target around $136,000.
Beautiful 6R BTC trade scenariosBTC is forming both buy and sell side trades as the price is in critical zone. BTC will possibly give us both side good trades. We need to wait for price getting into right zones.
1. Currently price is moving around daily and 4H gradient levels.
2. 125275 level is creating a gradient cluster of both 1d and 4h time frame. Which may give us a good sell side trade if price show clear reversal signals.
3. There is an 1hour iFVG if price takes liquidity of it, most probably it will touch gradient cluster level and good sell scenario may be confirmed.
4. There are several SIBIs which may be target for it and further buy side reversal trade.
5. Buy side reversal trade may be good trade as overall BTC order flow is upside.
6. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVGs and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF.
7. Price should show rejection/reversal in LTF (5m,1m) at FVG zone.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and 5.5R trade scenario.
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Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
BTC "Saturday Bull Fizzle Complete (due to low volume)"On weekends (especially Saturday), Bitcoin markets typically see lower trading volume because institutional and large traders are less active. There was a bullish attempt (a move upward in price) visible near the “Saturday” area.
However, since the volume was weak, the move failed to sustain, and prices pulled back shortly after.
Term “Fizzle” means:
The bullish momentum started strong but quickly lost strength, resulting in a failed breakout or continuation.
Technical takeaway:
A rally on low volume is often a false move — without sufficient participation, it cannot push through resistance or create follow-through.
📊 Market Implication
This suggests:
The Friday bullish candle tried to extend into Saturday.
But due to thin liquidity, the move couldn’t attract further buying.
Result: short-term reversal or consolidation, confirming that weekend rallies aren’t reliable without volume confirmation.
BTC/USD Analysis: Bullish Continuation in FocusBitcoin continues to demonstrate strength following its recent recovery. After periods of consolidation and controlled retracement, the market shows clear signs of accumulation, with buyers maintaining momentum. Each upward leg has been supported by liquidity absorption, reflecting steady confidence in higher valuations.
The current structure suggests that even if retracements occur, they are likely to serve as a foundation for further expansion. Market behavior highlights resilience, with the broader trend still pointing toward bullish continuation. Bitcoin remains positioned for progressive growth, with sentiment and structure both aligning in favor of buyers.
Bitcoin Breaks Out of Descending Channel: Supply Zone to Support
This 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) highlights a breakout from a descending channel after a prolonged consolidation phase lasting over 16 days (99 bars).
🔻 A clearly defined supply zone (marked in red) acted as a major resistance area, rejecting price multiple times before the breakout. The breakout above this zone indicates a shift in market structure, with bullish momentum gaining strength.
🟡 The breakout was followed by sustained buying pressure, pushing BTC upwards toward the $118,000 region. Price has since pulled back slightly and is now hovering around $115,500 — retesting the previous resistance zone, now potentially acting as support
BTC TODAY'S HIGH MAY NOT BE BROKEN FOR THE DAY This chart is 15 minues,there is resistance marked in red horizontal line will not be tested for the day and as gann fann is ploted will be followed by BTC.i
Cross point may be reacted and GREEN ASCENDING channel will work as support and resistance and YELLOW LINE as well.
this is not my buy or sell call.
Event-Driven Earnings TradingEvent-driven earnings trading is a strategy in the financial markets that focuses on capitalizing on price movements caused by corporate events, primarily earnings announcements. Unlike traditional trend-following or technical trading, this strategy is based on analyzing how specific news, reports, or announcements affect a company’s stock price. Earnings trading is considered highly profitable but requires precise timing, strong analytical skills, and disciplined risk management.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of key elements of event-driven earnings trading:
1. Understanding Earnings Announcements
Earnings announcements are periodic reports released by publicly traded companies detailing their financial performance over a specific period, usually quarterly. Traders monitor these announcements to gauge a company's profitability, revenue growth, and future prospects.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): A critical metric showing the profit allocated to each share of stock.
Revenue vs. Expectations: Markets react not just to absolute earnings but to how they compare to analysts’ consensus estimates.
Forward Guidance: Companies often provide future forecasts, which can influence short-term and medium-term stock movements.
Key takeaway: A solid understanding of earnings reports allows traders to anticipate market reactions before they occur.
2. Pre-Earnings Analysis and Positioning
Traders often prepare well before an earnings release. Pre-earnings analysis involves:
Studying past earnings reactions to similar announcements.
Identifying patterns in volatility expansion prior to earnings.
Analyzing analyst expectations and market sentiment.
Observing options market activity for unusual trading volumes or skewed implied volatility.
Positioning strategies can include setting up directional trades if confident in the earnings outcome or hedged trades to limit risk.
3. Earnings Surprises and Market Reaction
Earnings surprises occur when the reported earnings deviate significantly from analysts’ expectations:
Positive Surprise: EPS or revenue exceeds expectations → Stock often gaps up.
Negative Surprise: EPS or revenue falls short → Stock may gap down.
The magnitude of the reaction depends on:
Market sentiment
Magnitude of the surprise
Company fundamentals and sector context
Key insight: Markets are highly sensitive to unexpected earnings outcomes, creating short-term trading opportunities.
4. Event-Driven Trading Strategies
Several approaches are employed by traders around earnings events:
Directional Bets: Taking a long or short position based on expected earnings outcome.
Straddle/Strangle Option Strategies: Buying calls and puts simultaneously to profit from volatility spikes.
Post-Earnings Momentum: Trading the continuation or reversal of price trends immediately after earnings.
Pairs Trading: Hedging exposure by trading correlated stocks when one releases earnings.
Each strategy involves balancing risk and reward while factoring in implied volatility and market sentiment.
5. Volatility Considerations
Earnings announcements often lead to high volatility:
Pre-Earnings: Volatility often rises in anticipation of the report, reflected in options prices.
Post-Earnings: A sharp drop or spike can occur depending on the surprise and market reaction.
Traders must account for implied volatility crush, a sudden decrease in options premium after earnings release. Understanding this concept is crucial for options-based strategies.
6. Risk Management in Earnings Trading
Event-driven trading carries high risk due to unpredictable market reactions. Effective risk management includes:
Setting strict stop-loss levels
Avoiding overleveraging positions
Diversifying trades across multiple earnings events
Hedging with options to limit potential losses
Maintaining discipline is essential because unexpected announcements or market sentiment shifts can lead to significant losses.
7. Tools and Data Sources
Successful earnings trading relies on real-time data and analytical tools:
Earnings Calendars: Track upcoming announcements.
Financial News Platforms: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC for updates.
Options Chains: Monitor implied volatility and unusual option activity.
Technical Analysis: Identify support/resistance levels for post-earnings movement.
Combining fundamental and technical insights allows traders to make informed decisions.
8. Psychology and Market Behavior
Understanding market psychology is as important as analyzing financials:
Traders react emotionally to surprises, leading to exaggerated moves.
Herd behavior can amplify short-term volatility.
Experienced traders exploit these reactions by anticipating overreactions and mean reversions.
Key takeaway: Emotional discipline and a systematic approach increase the probability of success in earnings trading.
Conclusion
Event-driven earnings trading offers traders unique opportunities to profit from corporate announcements. By combining pre-earnings analysis, strategic positioning, risk management, and psychological insight, traders can navigate the volatility and capitalize on market inefficiencies. While the potential rewards are significant, disciplined execution and robust analysis are vital to sustaining long-term profitability.






















