Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT
The price of Bitcoin is returning to growth amid positive macroeconomic data from the US and a new wave of institutional investor interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs. Currently, the BTC price is moving within a narrow range (65,000 - 72,000), and a breakout from this range will determine the direction of its future movement. At the moment, there is a fourth retest of the descending trendline resistance.
To continue the upward movement, the price needs to secure itself above the trendline resistance and overcome the major resistance block at 72,000 - 73,000. This would open the path to a new all-time high in the range of 75,000 - 80,000. Such a positive scenario could unfold between June 7 and June 12, provided that positive inflation data from the US continues to be released.
However, the RSI indicator is showing a bearish divergence. If buyers fail to push the BTC price above the trendline and it falls below the dynamic support line at EMA 50 4H, we can expect a local correction. The nearest target for this correction could be the major support block at 65,000 - 68,000, which also contains the point of control (POC) for the value area. If this level does not hold against selling pressure, the BTC price may drop into the Imbalance 1H zone to fill the gaps at the horizontal volume levels.
📉 Bitcoin market global analysis
On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price has formed a descending wedge pattern. Currently, a retest of its upper boundary is taking place. If buyers manage to secure the price above this boundary, combined with fundamental factors such as a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, it could lead to a new bullish rally, as seen in previous cycles post-halving. Conversely, if the BTC price fails to break out of the wedge pattern, we expect a decline to retest its lower boundary around the 55,000 - 60,000 Imbalance 4H zone.
Above the current ATH, there are no resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will use trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, and analysis of large order clusters in exchange order books. There is a local ascending trendline that has been relevant since November 2023. Its test may occur at the 75,000 - 76,000 level, confirmed by a large block of pending orders. Above this, in the 80,000 - 90,000 range, there is a global trendline built on the peaks of the previous two Bitcoin cycles. There is also the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level. The highest trendline is located in the 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci extension range, with its test potentially starting at the 100,000 level.
💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels
Fear and Greed Index is currently in the extreme greed zone - 78.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen to $2.576 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance index has risen to 54.58%.
According to the analysis of accumulation of large order blocks in exchange order books, the demand and supply zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 60,000 - 68,000
🔴 Supply Zone: 72,000 - 80,000
Levels for long positions:
68,000 - Point of Control (POC) of the value area
65,000 - Major support block
60,000 - Psychological support level
Levels for short positions:
72,000 - Retest of the trendline resistance
75,000 - Major resistance block
80,000 - Major resistance block
90,000 - Global trendline
📊 Fundamental analysis
Institutional interest in spot BTC ETFs has surged again, with an influx of +$1.374 billion into these instruments over the past two days. The crypto community is anticipating a Bitcoin bull rally, which could be sparked by a change in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. On June 4, labor market data began to be released, indicating a slowing US economy. When the economy slows, inflation decreases, and lower inflation is a key factor for the resumption of money printing and the growth of high-risk markets, including the cryptocurrency market.
The stock market has already reached new all-time highs in anticipation of positive inflation data on June 12 and in light of recent macroeconomic data from the US. However, there are still 4 days left to resolve the issue of the US Treasury redeeming over $10 trillion in government bonds by June 9.
🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy
We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates:
➤ June 6th, 3:30 PM - US Initial Jobless Claims.
➤ June 12th, 3:30 PM - US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
➤ June 12th, 9:00 PM - New Decision on Federal Reserve Interest Rates.
➤ July 31st, 9:00 PM - New Decision on Federal Reserve Interest Rates.
📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator:
In May 2024, the cryptocurrency market began to recover after correction. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all 6 signals have become profitable, and the built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements.
Total price movement by all signals: + 31.16%
Maximum price movement: + 14.86%
Average price movement: + 5.19%
