bearish retest I warned on Oct31 played out EXACTLY as projectedThe bearish retest I warned about on Oct 31 played out EXACTLY as projected
I clearly said CRYPTOCAP:BTC would dump again after filling the FVG at $106K–$107K and that’s exactly what happened.
BTC dropped from $107K → $98K (-9%) and from our retest entry, we’re now 15% in profit.
Hope you enjoyed the analysis and booked gains.
Now watch the 0.5–0.618 FIB zone closely.
✔️ If it holds → strong bounce possible
❌ If it fails → BTC could slide below $80K
I’ve been warning about this dump since BTC was above $120K+.
Structure always wins.
NFA & DYOR
Trade ideas
#BTC Technical Update: Structure Playing Out With Precision#BTC Technical Update: Structure Playing Out With Precision
CRYPTOCAP:BTC has tapped the $95K zone, completing the corrective leg projected when price was rejecting the $115K–$110K range.
Key downside levels already reached:
➡️ $105K ✔️
➡️ $93K ✔️
As long as price fails to break and close above $107,500, the bearish structure remains intact and the next liquidity target becomes: $73K
A confirmed close above $107.5K invalidates the bearish leg and reopens the path toward a new ATH.
Critical zones to watch:
➡️ 0.5 FIB — structural reaction level
➡️ 0.618 FIB — high-probability reversal pocket
🔻 Bearish below $107.5K
🔺 Bullish above $107.5K
Price is respecting structure with accuracy.
Charts > emotions. Levels > noise.
NFA & DYOR
BTC/USDT Timeframe (4-hour)BTC/USDT Timeframe (4-hour)
Current price: ≈ $105,845
My drawn:
A descending trendline (showing previous resistance)
Ichimoku Cloud, and
Two target points marked with green arrows.
---
🔍 Chart Interpretation
From my image:
Price has broken above the descending trendline.
It’s also moving into/above the Ichimoku Cloud, a sign of a potential trend reversal.
My first target appears around $113,000 – $114,000, which aligns with the upper boundary of the drawn arrow.
The second target (higher arrow) points near $117,000 – $118,000, representing the extended bullish target zone.
---
🎯 Possible Targets Based on my Chart
1. Target 1: $113,000 – $114,000
(Short-term resistance / first profit zone)
2. Target 2: $117,000 – $118,000
(Next key resistance / full breakout target)
---
⚠ Risk Note
Watch for retests near $104,000 – $105,000 (the breakout zone).
If BTC closes back below the trendline or Ichimoku cloud, bullish momentum weakens.
BTCUSDT SHORT I was sitting in Short after a good bearish candle formed at resistance with very good volume, i just took 1:2 and i was out of the trade.
Logic :- Price was too stretched and bears were gaining control, bulls were trapped
But still the trend is bullish for me, lets see 🚀
Happy profits 🥂 enjoy guys, sorry i didn’t posted this trade earlier
LIKE AND FOLLOW FOR MORE TRADE IDEAS
Part 9 Trading Master ClassChoosing the Right Strategy
Selecting the right options strategy depends on three factors:
Market Outlook:
Bullish → Long Call, Bull Call Spread, Short Put
Bearish → Long Put, Bear Put Spread, Covered Call
Neutral → Iron Condor, Butterfly, Short Straddle
Volatility:
High volatility → Buy options (Straddle, Strangle)
Low volatility → Sell options (Condor, Credit spreads)
Risk Appetite:
Low-risk → Spreads
Medium-risk → Covered/Protective positions
High-risk → Naked calls/puts
Part 1 Ride The Big Moves Why Traders Use Options
Options offer several unique advantages:
1. Leverage
With a small premium, you can control a much larger position.
2. Hedging
Investors can protect portfolios from downside risk using puts.
3. Income Generation
Selling options—especially covered calls—creates consistent passive income.
4. Flexibility
You can profit in:
Upward markets
Downward markets
Sideways markets
High or low volatility environments
This flexibility gives options an edge over simple stock trading.
#BITCOIN TECH UPDATE: BEARISH IN CONTROL#BITCOIN TECH UPDATE: BEARISH IN CONTROL
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is down 14% from $115K retest, clean rejection.
Trend remains bearish, structure forming lower highs & lower lows.
Key Zones:
Relief zone: $105K–$108K (short setup area).
Major support: $94K → break below = $76K next.
Momentum:
Selling pressure dominates; no bullish divergence yet.
Invalidation:
Only a close above $111.5K flips bias bullish toward $150K. ( Super Bullish Above $116.5K)
Plan:
Sell rallies. Manage risk. Avoid FOMO longs.
NFA & DYOR
BTCUSD Retest Play: Buying the Dip Toward PDLYesterday BTC failed to tap the Previous Day’s Low (PDL), leaving an untouched liquidity pool below.
Today, price has already formed a liquidity buy zone at 95,665.95, which sits in a premium area.
I’m expecting BTC to potentially test the PDL, so I’m planning to buy on the dip.
📌 Entry: 95,279.63
🛡 Stop Loss: 94,814.54
🎯 Target: PDL 98,000
#BTCUSD
#Bitcoin
#BTC
#Crypto
#CryptoTrading
#LongSetup
#LiquidityGrab
#PDL
#SmartMoney
#PriceAction
#DayTrading
#SwingTrading
#LiquiditySweep
#MarketStructure
#BuyTheDip
#ForexCrypto
#PremiumZone
#OrderFlow
#TechnicalAnalysis
BTCUSDT/ETHUSDT WEEKLY ANALYSIS 17/11/2025 - 23/11/2025Wassup Lads!!
As discussed earlier we wanted BTC to take out the lows on the daily Time frame.
BTC has taken out the lows forming a potential SMT, to confirm this reversal I would like to see price form a swing point on Daily Time Frame with a Fair Value Gap for additional confirmation before looking for longs.
Plan for next week -
1. Wait for price to print more data
2. Wait for daily swing point for longs
3. Look for potential Longs
As always maintain risk and stay disciplined. Keep winning!!
Part 2 Intraday Trading Master ClassWhy Option Trading Is Growing Rapidly in India
In recent years, India has seen an explosive rise in options trading due to:
Weekly expiries (more opportunity)
Low entry capital
High liquidity in BankNifty and Nifty options
Rise of online brokerages
Wide availability of market data and tools
Social media awareness
Because of the leverage and excitement options offer, many new traders are drawn to them—though disciplined ones survive longer.
Bitcoin_Short Elliot WaveBitcoin appears to be completing an ABC pattern, potentially reaching up to 106,000. I anticipate a downside move below 99,000 once it tests resistance around 106,000. A short position could be considered near that level with a tight stop-loss.Please do your own research before taking any trade decisions.
BTC Breakdown Confirmed, Structure Flipped Bearish: Next $88610?BTC Breakdown Confirmed, Structure Flipped Bearish: Next Stop $83,610?
Support is broken and the structure confirms a clear bearish shift.
#Bitcoin failed to reclaim the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, turning it into strong resistance.
High chances CRYPTOCAP:BTC could fill the FVG and continue the downside move toward $83,610.
Bulls remain trapped unless price reclaims $116,400, the bearish invalidation zone.
Trend bias remains bearish. Liquidity targets below are in play.
NFa & DYOR
BITCOIN TECH UPDATE: BEARISH DOMINATES MUST READ🚨 BTC TECH UPDATE: BEARISH DOMINATES MUST READ 🚨
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is down 14% from my bearish short at $115,000 retest.
✅ Those who shorted, well played.
✅ Those who avoided longing at the top, capital saved.
Price Action:
#BITCOIN hit 1st support and broke below, trend remains bearish.
Next target: $94,000.
Short-Term Relief:
Expect a bounce toward $105,000–$108,000 (retest + FVG zone) before the next leg down.
Longer-Term:
$94,000 key decision zone → potential drop to $76,000 if bearish momentum continues.
Will update with precision once $94k is reached.
Sentiment: Bearish as forecasted from $115k.
Bullish Trigger:
If BTC breaks $111,500 with HTF candle close, bullish scenario activates → potential ATH toward $150,000.
Trade smart. Watch levels. Manage risk.
Your move: Ride the bearish wave or wait for the relief rally?
NFA & DYOR
Unlocking Trading Breakouts and Avoiding Costly Mistakes1. What Is a Breakout in Trading?
A breakout occurs when the price of a stock or asset moves outside a key support or resistance level with increased volume.
Resistance Breakout: Price moves above a resistance level (previous high or consolidation zone).
Support Breakout: Price drops below a support level (previous low or base).
This movement suggests that market sentiment is shifting—buyers or sellers are gaining control. A valid breakout often signals a new phase of volatility or the beginning of a strong trend.
For example, if a stock has been trading between ₹100 and ₹120 for weeks, a close above ₹120 on strong volume may signal a bullish breakout—potentially leading to a larger upside move.
2. Why Breakouts Matter
Breakouts often mark major transitions in supply and demand.
When price breaks above resistance, it shows that buyers have overpowered sellers.
When price breaks below support, it means sellers have overwhelmed buyers.
These moments attract large institutional traders and trigger algorithmic buying or selling. Breakout traders attempt to capture the early stage of a trend before the broader market catches on.
However, not every breakout leads to a sustainable move. Many fail quickly—these are known as false breakouts or “bull traps” and “bear traps.” Understanding how to differentiate them is key to success.
3. Characteristics of a Strong Breakout
To filter high-probability breakouts, traders should look for certain confirming signals:
a. High Volume
Volume is the heartbeat of any breakout. When price breaks a key level with high volume, it shows strong participation and conviction among traders. Low-volume breakouts often fail.
b. Tight Consolidation Before Breakout
A tight range or a base pattern (like a flag, pennant, or triangle) before breakout suggests accumulation or preparation for a major move.
c. Strong Close Beyond the Level
The price should close beyond the breakout point—not just spike intraday. Closing strength confirms that the breakout is genuine.
d. Favorable Market Context
Breakouts perform best in trend-supportive markets. A bullish breakout in a strong overall market (e.g., NIFTY 50 uptrend) has a higher chance of succeeding.
4. Common Types of Breakout Patterns
1. Horizontal Breakouts
Price breaks a flat support or resistance level, often after sideways movement or consolidation.
2. Trendline Breakouts
A long-standing trendline is breached, signaling a potential reversal or acceleration of momentum.
3. Chart Pattern Breakouts
Patterns like triangles, flags, rectangles, cups and handles, and head and shoulders often lead to breakouts. Each has its psychology of accumulation and release.
4. Volatility Breakouts
Price suddenly expands after a period of low volatility (e.g., after a squeeze on Bollinger Bands). Such breakouts are explosive but short-lived.
5. The Psychology Behind Breakouts
Understanding trader psychology is as important as chart analysis.
When price nears resistance, many traders expect rejection and place sell orders there. But once the price breaks above that level, short sellers are forced to cover, adding to buying pressure. Similarly, breakout traders jump in, driving price higher—a self-reinforcing cycle that fuels trends.
However, emotions can be dangerous. Many traders fear missing out (FOMO) and chase the price after the breakout has already extended too far. This often leads to losses when price retraces.
6. The Most Common Breakout Mistakes (and How to Avoid Them)
a. Entering Too Early
Jumping in before confirmation is a common trap. Wait for a daily or hourly candle close above resistance (or below support). Premature entries often get caught in false breakouts.
Solution: Be patient. Confirmation matters more than speed.
b. Ignoring Volume
Breakouts without volume often lack strength. Many traders ignore this and assume every move beyond a line is a breakout.
Solution: Use volume indicators (like Volume Profile or OBV) to confirm market participation.
c. No Stop-Loss Strategy
Many traders enter breakouts without pre-defined stop-loss levels, hoping the price will “eventually” go in their favor. This leads to big losses.
Solution: Always place a stop-loss just below the breakout point (for longs) or above it (for shorts). This protects against false breakouts.
d. Chasing Price
After the breakout, price may retest the breakout zone before resuming its trend. Impatient traders chase extended moves, only to see price pull back.
Solution: Wait for a retest or minor pullback before entering.
e. Ignoring Market Context
A breakout in a weak overall market is risky. Broader sentiment influences individual stock movement.
Solution: Align trades with broader trend direction. Bullish breakouts perform better in bull markets.
f. Over-Leveraging
Using high leverage amplifies both profit and loss. If the breakout fails, leveraged traders face margin calls.
Solution: Keep position sizes moderate—risk no more than 1–2% of capital per trade.
7. Smart Techniques to Trade Breakouts Effectively
a. Use Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Check higher timeframes (like weekly or daily) to confirm structure, and use lower ones (like 1-hour) for entries. This ensures alignment between short-term and long-term trends.
b. Employ Volume Profile
Volume Profile helps identify high-volume nodes (HVNs)—zones of strong support/resistance—and low-volume nodes (LVNs)—areas where breakouts are likely to accelerate.
c. Watch for Retests
Many valid breakouts come back to retest the broken level before continuing. This offers low-risk entry points.
d. Combine Momentum Indicators
Use RSI, MACD, or ADX to confirm momentum. If these show strength during breakout, chances of success rise.
e. Manage Emotions
Don’t let excitement or fear dictate action. Follow your trading plan strictly—discipline beats prediction.
8. Risk Management in Breakout Trading
Breakout trading works best with strict risk management because not all breakouts succeed.
Here’s how to manage risk effectively:
Stop-Loss: Place just beyond the opposite side of the breakout.
Position Sizing: Limit risk to 1–2% of capital per trade.
Trailing Stops: As price moves in your favor, trail your stop-loss to lock in profits.
Risk–Reward Ratio: Target at least 2:1. For every ₹1 risked, aim to gain ₹2.
Without proper risk control, even a few failed breakouts can wipe out profits from several successful ones.
9. Identifying False Breakouts
False breakouts happen when price temporarily breaches a key level and then reverses sharply. These are often caused by stop-hunting or lack of follow-through buying/selling.
How to Identify:
Breakout happens with low or average volume.
Price doesn’t close beyond the level.
Immediate reversal candle (like a shooting star or bearish engulfing).
How to Avoid:
Wait for confirmation on closing basis.
Avoid trading during major news events when volatility is erratic.
Use alerts instead of instant market entries.
10. Conclusion: Mastering the Art of Breakouts
Breakout trading offers tremendous potential—but only for disciplined traders who respect structure, volume, and risk. Successful breakout traders don’t chase—they anticipate, confirm, and control risk.
By focusing on volume confirmation, price structure, and broader trend context, you can distinguish between genuine and false breakouts. Equally important is patience—waiting for setups that align technically and psychologically.
Remember: every breakout is an opportunity, but only if you trade it with a plan. Stay objective, manage your emotions, and protect your capital. Over time, mastering breakout trading becomes less about prediction and more about precision—the art of entering when others hesitate and exiting when others panic.
BTC First Weekly BB Break Since March: This Changes EverythingFirst Weekly BB Break Since March: This Changes Everything!
Bitcoin is currently testing a key support zone around $104K, forming what appears to be the 5th major support retest in this ongoing bullish cycle.
Historical Pattern Insight:
Each of the previous four support retests (1–4) led to substantial rallies ranging from +70% to +200%, as shown in the green zones.
If the pattern repeats, the next potential upside move (Wave 5) could project CRYPTOCAP:BTC toward the $200K region, marking a ~100% upside from current levels.
New Technical Development:
This week marks Bitcoin’s first breach of the lower Bollinger Band (BB) on the weekly timeframe since March, signaling heightened volatility and potential exhaustion of the current corrective phase.
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed breakdown below this critical support could trigger a deeper correction toward the $50K area (–55%), similar to previous cycle corrections highlighted in red.
Key Levels to Watch:
🔹 Support: $103K–$100K
🔹 Resistance: $110K, then $135K
🔹 Upside Target: $200K
🔹 Downside Risk: $50K
Indicators:
Bollinger Bands remain squeezed, indicating volatility expansion is near. The weekly mid-band continues to act as dynamic support, but a sustained close below it could shift the bias short-term.
🟩 Bullish Bias remains valid above $100K, invalidated only on a weekly close below support.
🟩 Pattern repetition or deviation here will define Bitcoin’s next macro leg.
NFA & DYOR
#BITCOIN UPDATE: Structure Still Playing Out Exactly as Mapped#BITCOIN Technical Update: Structure Still Playing Out Exactly as Mapped
CRYPTOCAP:BTC has now broken below the $90K zone, a level not seen since 22 April 2025, Seven months ago.
I told you this when Bitcoin was rejecting $115K, and we’re now ~22% down from that zone.
Price is following the structure with precision.
Key observations:
🔻 BTC currently sits on the 0.618 FIB: High-probability bounce zone.
A relief move into the $98K–$100K region is very possible in the coming days.
🔼 Upside FVG: ~$98,000
If price pushes deeper first, this FVG becomes the ideal tap before the next leg down.
This is why I said: don’t short here, Risk-reward is terrible at the lows.
A sweep toward $98K would offer a clean, low-risk short entry.
🔽 Downside FVG: ~$88,474: This zone can trigger a strong reaction and potential bounce.
Market structure remains intact:
Below $107.5K → macro bearish leg still active
Above $107.5K → invalidation + path toward new ATH reopens
Price continues to respect levels.
Charts > emotions. Structure > noise.
NFA & DYOR
Vibe Thinker Says BTC ATM Long Straddle.
Got a New AI model, Vibe Thinker, my prompt is
Find any Major, high-impact news events and market conditions that could indicate high volatility
for Bitcoin from today or yesterday.
Focus on factors that would make a long or short straddle strategy appropriate:
short straddle is Selling both the ATM call and ATM put,
long straddle is Buying Both the ATM call and ATM put,
Price moves when more people buys btc or more people sells btc .
people will buy or sell based on news and on market timings in their countries
i live in india ,my exchange time is different to other global exchanges .
Even if siginificant news is there , people may not ready to trade at this time or in next 3 hours .
1. NEWS EVENTS:
- Regulatory announcements, decisions, government statements
- Major institutional adoption news
- Significant partnership announcements
- Upcoming economic events or Fed meetings that could affect crypto
- Geopolitical events affecting markets
- Major exchange or protocol updates
2. MARKET CONDITIONS:
- Current BTCUSDT candlestick patterns showing consolidation
- Volume patterns suggesting accumulation or distribution
- Support and resistance levels being tested
- Options implied volatility levels
3.TIMING:
Focus you thinking on next 3 hours for long straddle, immediate move is required to gain .
Candlestick data timestamp in IST Indian Time and compare to overlapping high-activity sessions (London open, US open, Asia close)
Time left until major events (economic reports, exchange maintenance, etc.)
Analyze 3-hour volatility potential — is a 2500+ point move realistic within that window?
Evaluate historical intraday volatility cycles — is BTC showing a lull before a surge?
Consider funding rate resets or options expiries near the current time that might cause volatility spikes
If time-based catalysts align with price compression → favor LONG STRADDLE
If volatility is already high or decaying with no clear catalyst → favor SHORT STRADDLE
4. DECISION OUTPUT:
Based on all inputs (news, market structure, volatility, and time factors), clearly recommend:
"Recommend LONG STRADDLE" (if breakout probability and volatility expansion expected)
or
"Recommend SHORT STRADDLE" (if consolidation or volatility decay expected)
or Hold the current positions
94298.5
96606.0
94009.5
2596.5
79104.64583333333
...more candle data
94243.5
94454.0
94009.5
94337.0
180885.0
94295.5
94465.5
94252.5
94298.5
22745.0
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Bitcoin Hits Death Cross, and There Are Only 2 Scenarios by Top Analyst
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US Bitcoin ETFs Post $1.1B Outflows As BTC Price Struggles Below $100K
Sunday, November 16, 2025 at 04:30:37 PM IST
Upbit operator Dunamu posts $165M in profit in Q3, up over 300% YoY
Sunday, November 16, 2025 at 03:36:33 PM IST
Answer:-
**Recommendation**:
**"Recommend LONG STRADDLE"**
### Strategy Details
- **Entry**: Buy call at ~$95,853 (midpoint + $15) and sell put at ~$95,823 (midpoint – $15) at 10:30 AM IST.
- **Target Move**: Price should break above $98,000 (gaining profit from the call) or fall below $95,000 (protecting against the put).
- **Hold Period**: Until price breaks out of the midpoint or falls below the put level.
### Why Not Short Straddle?
A short straddle would lose value if the price continues to move upward, which aligns with the expected trend. The long-straddle position captures gains from upward movement while protecting against potential downward moves.
### Action Steps for the User (India):
- **Monitor for Catalysts**: Watch for events like Dunamu’s Q3 profit or Scaramucci updates that might push prices higher.
- **Trade Timing**: Enter at 10:30 AM IST and hold until 1:30 PM IST, during the 3-hour window.
- **Exchange Note**: Use your Indian exchange (e.g., LBS, OANDA) for time-zone alignment. Markets open at 9:00 CEST (20:00 IST), matchinng the start time.
**Conclusion**: The combination of high volatility, upward trend, and uncertain direction makes a long straddle the most appropriate strategy. The current price is above the crash floor, and the upward movement aligns with long-straddle profitability.






















