Sell Swing Trading Strategy for CADJPY [4h]The 4-hour CADJPY chart shows a downward trend with the current price hovering around the strong support level near 108.08, below the 33-week EMA. This presents an opportunity to implement a sell (short) strategy based on technical analysis.
1. Technical Analysis Overview:
Trend: CADJPY is in a correction phase after hitting a short-term peak around 110 in early October. Recent price action shows resistance near the 33-week EMA (around 108.2 - 108.5), suggesting that the price may continue to decline further.
33-week EMA: This indicator reflects the long-term trend. The current price is below the EMA, confirming the potential for the downtrend to continue.
Volume: Trading volume has been relatively steady but is decreasing as the price approaches support levels, indicating that selling pressure might still be present.
2. Sell Strategy:
Entry Point: Enter a sell position around 108.2 or just below the 33-week EMA. This is a strong dynamic resistance zone, and the price may bounce slightly before continuing the downtrend.
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss above 109.2, where there is short-term resistance and beyond the EMA line. If the price breaks above this level, the downtrend might be invalidated.
Take Profit:
Short-term target: Set the target at 106.5, which corresponds to the key support level from late September.
Long-term target: If the price breaks below 106.5, extend the target to 105.5, a level where the price had previously rebounded strongly.
3. Timeframe Estimation:
Estimated time to execute the strategy: This strategy could play out over 1-2 weeks, depending on market volatility. If the price breaks the 106.5 support quickly, the strategy may conclude sooner.
Market conditions: If the price moves slowly, the strategy may extend by a few extra days until the take-profit level is reached.
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