Based on volume profile hypothesis. Open interest shorts increase and long decrease and also decrease in net positions. Probability of sell bias this week.
3 scenarios.
1. May go up Till last NY session high.
2. May go down to mitigate the order block.
3. May consolidate b/w triangle because of fed meeting.
To take a breakout trade on either sides you need shallow pullback and imbalance to be not filled.
Analysis for eurusd: 26th june
Liquidity:(buy-side)
internal liquidity :yes
external liquidty no
Volume profile:
VWAP : monthly above fair value : +1
Propable move: buy on the high volume nodes.
Take your own risk. Analysis may be different in pov for market makers.
I have plotted 2 scenarios based on my own analysis.
Analysis for eurusd (march 27):
Liquidity:(buy-side)
internal liquidity taken. external liquidty "A" may be taken in the higher picture.
Volume profile:(neutral)
Moved out of 70% bulge.
VWAP : (Sell side)
ST. deviation 2.
scenarios:
You can watch lines on the chart.
important Note:
Trade with only confirmations & news.
Analysis:
Areas of focus: a, b
Weekly and daily Liquidity to be taken.
but after new euro fx contract switch there is a lot of sell took place.
So,
scenarios:
i)bias depends on how you view it either rallies above "a" liquidity zone.
or
ii) rallies above "b" till "a" liquidity is taken.
or
iii)Takes down after "b" 15 min fvg mitigation.
NOTE:
The information...
CFTC publishes on a weekly basis COT reports in 3 formats - Legacy, Disaggregated, Financials.
www.cftc.gov
Big financial / commodity / currency traders keep a watch on this data on a weekly basis. All futures traders should also track this data.
To make it easy to consume, I created 3 indicators to consume this information in a simple...
Eur Future I'm expecting it will go down because of daily FVG filled as per Fibonacci level the golden packed 0.618 to 0.5 also reached let's wait for Hit the target.
Please Note : These are buy/sell level . these levels has to breakout in minimum 15 min candle ..
Reaching this level is not valied & Fake break out can be identified by RSI and other indicators
