Rubrik (Rbrk)Let’s break down the chart and analyze the potential incoming ABC wave for Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) on this 1-day (1D) candlestick chart from TradingView.
### Chart Overview
- **Stock**: Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)
- **Timeframe**: 1-day chart
- **Current Price**: 57.09 (down 8.55% or 5.34 points)
- **Indicators**:
- 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA 200) is shown, trending upward.
- Key price levels are marked: 78.83 (resistance), 57.09 (current price), 49.15 (support), and 38.85 (lower support).
- An ABC wave pattern is labeled, with points A, B, and C identified.
### ABC Wave Analysis
The ABC wave is a corrective pattern often seen in Elliott Wave theory, typically following a larger impulsive move. It consists of three legs:
- **A**: The initial move in the direction of the correction.
- **B**: A counter-trend move, often a partial retracement of A.
- **C**: The final leg, which usually moves in the same direction as A and completes the correction.
#### Current Pattern on the Chart
1. **Point A (57.09)**:
- This marks the start of the corrective wave, where the price peaked at 57.09 after a downtrend from the high of 78.83.
- This level also aligns with a key support/resistance zone (highlighted in red), suggesting it’s a significant pivot point.
2. **Point B (68.00)**:
- The price rallied from 57.09 to around 68.00, forming the B leg of the ABC wave.
- This move represents a retracement of the prior downtrend. A common retracement level for the B wave is 50% to 61.8% of the A leg. From 78.83 to 57.09, the drop was 21.74 points. A 50% retracement would be around 67.96, and a 61.8% retracement would be around 70.40. The B wave peak at 68.00 fits nicely near the 50% retracement level, which is typical for an ABC correction.
3. **Point C (Projected)**:
- The C wave is the final leg of the correction, expected to move downward in the same direction as the A leg (bearish).
- The chart projects the C wave targeting the 49.15 level, which is a key support zone (highlighted in blue).
- In Elliott Wave theory, the C wave often equals the length of the A wave or a Fibonacci extension of it. The A leg dropped from 78.83 to 57.09, a distance of 21.74 points. If the C wave equals the A wave in length, starting from the B wave high of 68.00, the target would be:
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The 49.15 level is slightly above this, suggesting a more conservative target, possibly aligning with the support zone. Another common target for the C wave is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the A wave, but that would require more precise calculations not directly visible on the chart.
#### Additional Context
- **SMA 200**: The 200-day SMA is trending upward and currently sits around the 44.00 level. If the price continues to decline toward 49.15, it may approach this long-term moving average, which could act as additional support.
- **Support Levels**: The 49.15 level is a key support, and below that, 38.85 is another significant support zone. These levels could act as potential targets or reversal points for the C wave.
- **Indicators**: The chart shows a "SELL" signal at 56.94, which aligns with the bearish direction of the projected C wave. However, there’s also a "BUY" signal at 57.17, indicating potential short-term bullish momentum or a bounce before the C wave fully develops.
### Incoming ABC Wave Interpretation
- **Direction**: The C wave is expected to be bearish, continuing the corrective pattern after the B wave retracement.
- **Target**: The primary target for the C wave is around 49.15, as marked on the chart. This level aligns with a historical support zone and is a reasonable target based on the length of the A wave.
- **Potential Risks**:
- If the price fails to break below the current support at 57.09, the ABC correction might not complete, and a new impulsive wave upward could form.
- The 200-day SMA around 44.00 could provide strong support, potentially halting the C wave if it extends beyond 49.15.
- **Timeframe**: Since this is a daily chart, the C wave could take several days to weeks to fully develop, depending on market conditions and volume.
### Conclusion
The chart suggests that Rubrik, Inc. is in the midst of an ABC corrective wave, with the C wave likely to push the price down toward the 49.15 support level. The pattern aligns with typical Elliott Wave behavior, and the 49.15 target is a reasonable projection based on the length of the A wave and the support zones on the chart. However, traders should watch for potential bounces at the current price (57.09) or the 200-day SMA (around 44.00) if the price overshoots the 49.15 target. Additionally, monitoring volume and broader market conditions will be crucial to confirm the completion of the C wave and any potential reversal signals.
