When US sneeze, India catches cold- old statement, still valid?Historically, Indian markets used to react to whatever happened in the US. That's what the subject line suggests.
Does it still hold good? I have tried to examine S&P 500, one of those indices that we often refer to (along with Nasdaq and Dow).
Earlier to this, I have been analysing and posting the trends in Nifty and Bank Nifty. See my discussion on Head & Shoulder pattern in Nifty.
Note the right side of a big head in the S&P chart. After the big head, the index has formed two additional heads at lower levels - clear signs of trend turning bearish. Not only that, watch the big size candles on the right side vs the slow-turtling up pattern from August 2017 till about mid Jan2018.
Towards the end of Jan18, all hell broke loose. In US as well as in India. And we have seen about 10-15% corrections in both markets.
More specifically, see the parallel channels - it appears like a Dam-Canal-Bridge kind of a picture on the S&P! Water flowing down. If we continue the trend, it looks more likely that the recent (intraday) lows of 2553 could well be breached, and could even take the index below its 6 months low that was seen in the last week of September 2017, before the end of April18.
Why it is important for us? Because Indian indices generally react to the US indices as stated earlier. So perhaps, once again, both Indian indices and US indices may walk in tandem, down the canal. Even the weakening RSI indicates that. If that happens, S&P could lose another 5-7% resulting in a fall in Indian indices too.
What is needed to arrest this down-flow? perhaps extremely positive Mar18 quarter results (last quarter for us, first quarter for US).
