**SET50 Futures Market Analysis & Trading Plan (March 4, 2025)**
## **SET50 Futures Market Analysis & Trading Plan (March 4, 2025)**
### **Market Overview**
The **SET50 Index Futures (March 2025, TFEX, 1-hour chart, Heikin Ashi)** is currently in a strong **downtrend**, as indicated by several key technical factors:
- **BB 104 0.1 Downtrend Confirmation**:
The price is significantly below the **BB 104 0.1 (Upper: 793.1, Lower: 787.7)**, confirming a **bearish trend**. The slope of the **BB 104 0.1** also indicates a continuous downward movement.
- **Bollinger Bands (BB 20, 0.2) Show Weakness**:
The price is consistently near the **Lower Band (742.3)** of the **BB 20 0.2**, suggesting **selling pressure is dominant**.
- **SMA 104 Trend Confirmation**:
The price has been below the **SMA 104** for an extended period, further validating the **bearish outlook**.
### **Trading Plan (SBD Strategy)**
Given the **downtrend**, the **SBD (SMA 104 + BB + DMI Position Scaling Strategy)** approach will focus on **short trades** rather than long positions.
#### **1. Entry Strategy for Short Trades**
- **Primary Short Entry**:
- If the price pulls back to the **Middle Band (MB) of BB 20 0.2** (approx. **754-759**), this could present a good **short entry** opportunity.
- Confirmation should come from **-DI > +DI** (Directional Movement Indicator) and **ADX above 25** to ensure trend strength.
- **Scaling In Approach**:
- Initial position size based on **SMA 104 slope & DMI alignment**:
- **Strong Downtrend (ADX > 25, SMA 104 sloping downward)** → Open **2/3 of full position**.
- **Moderate Downtrend (ADX < 25, but still below SMA 104)** → Open **1/2 of full position**.
- **Sideways Movement** → Reduce size or wait for better confirmation.
#### **2. Stop Loss & Risk Management**
- **Stop Loss (SL)**:
- **Primary SL**: **BB 104 0.1 (Upper at 793.1)** → If price breaks above, it signals a weakening downtrend.
- **Alternative SL**: A close above **BB 20 0.2 Upper Band (759.3)** could indicate trend exhaustion.
#### **3. Take Profit (TP) Strategy**
- **First TP Target**:
- **Next support level around 730-735**, where potential buyers may emerge.
- **Extended TP Target**:
- If selling pressure remains strong, the next downside target could be **720-725**.
### **Final Thoughts**
This setup aligns well with the **SBD Strategy**, focusing on high-probability **short trades** in a confirmed **downtrend**. The key will be **waiting for a pullback** before entering a **short position**, ensuring risk is managed effectively.
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