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U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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USDCAD | 1H Market Structure OutlookUSDCAD is currently trading within a well-defined short-term distribution range after engineering a strong impulsive rally from the late-January lows. The recent expansion into the 1.3700 handle appears to have tapped into a premium supply zone, where price printed rejection wicks, signaling the presence of institutional sell-side liquidity. From an SMC / ICT perspective: Price swept relative equal highs before showing displacement to the downside, hinting at a classic buy-side liquidity grab. The rejection from the marked supply suggests smart money may be positioning for a retracement toward inefficiencies left below. Internal structure is beginning to shift bearish on the lower timeframe, though confirmation would require a decisive break of structure (BOS) beneath the 1.3620 support. Key Levels to Watch Supply / Premium: 1.3695 to 1.3710 Intermediate Support: ~1.3620 (range floor) Higher-Timeframe Demand: 1.3580 to 1.3600, aligning with the visible demand block and potential mitigation zone. Projected Path If price fails to reclaim the supply region, the probability favors a corrective move lower, potentially delivering a measured draw on liquidity into the demand zone. A brief pullback into a lower high followed by continuation would further validate bearish order flow. Invalidation Scenario: Sustained acceptance above 1.3710 would negate the bearish premise and open the door for continuation toward higher liquidity pools. Bias: Short-term bearish while below supply, with expectations of liquidity engineering toward discounted pricing.
Short
by YCGH_Capital
2
USDCAD Intraday Liquidity Reversal USDCAD delivered a textbook sell-side liquidity purge before rotating higher, suggesting smart money participation emerging from the lower dealing range. Price engineered a sweep below the equal lows near 1.3517, effectively triggering resting sell stops and late breakout shorts. The displacement that followed indicates aggressive buy-side interest rather than passive short covering, reinforcing the probability of accumulation at discount. From an ICT framework, the market transitioned from a bearish delivery into a short-term market structure shift (MSS) after failing to continue lower post-liquidity grab. The impulsive bullish leg left behind a minor inefficiency, hinting that algorithms repriced the pair too quickly after securing liquidity. Orderflow Narrative: External range liquidity was cleared beneath prior lows. Smart money likely accumulated within the discount zone of the current dealing range. Subsequent displacement validates intent, not randomness. The highlighted long setup aligns with the expectation of price gravitating toward equilibrium, with 1.3550–1.3575 acting as the next magnet where opposing liquidity clusters rest. Trade Logic: Entry Zone: Discount / post-sweep reaction Invalidation: Sustained acceptance below the liquidity low Target: Draw on buy-side liquidity above internal highs
Long
by YCGH_Capital
USDCAD at historical demand zoneThe USDCAD pair is currently testing a critical support zone that has historically acted as a trusted base. After a sharp descent, we are seeing signs of life as the price attempts to hold this floor and move higher. The immediate price action suggests this level is highly decisive for the next major trend. Here are the two primary scenarios to watch: 1. If the current momentum sustains and the base remains intact, the first major target is the overhead resistance at 1.3826. Continuation: A clean break and daily close above 1.3826 would signal a shift in market structure, likely igniting a fresh bullish wave toward higher swing levels. 2. On the flip side, if the recovery loses steam and the price slips back below the 1.3662 mark, the outlook turns sharply bearish. Target: Trading below this support would invalidate the current bounce and open the doors for a deeper correction toward the 1.3400 psychological level. As usual, Volume plays key role.
Long
by STtraderr
USD/CAD: Elliott Wave Bearish BiasUSD/CAD is showing a bearish Elliott Wave structure on the 4H chart. Price appears to have completed a corrective Wave 2 near the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone, which is a common area for corrections to end. From there, the market has started to turn lower, suggesting the beginning of a new impulsive Wave 3 to the downside, which is usually the strongest bearish wave. As long as price stays below the recent swing high near the retracement zone, the bias remains bearish, with downside targets toward the 1.365–1.360 area. A move above the Wave 2 high would invalidate this count and delay the bearish scenario. Stay tuned! @Money_Dictators Thank you :)
Short
by Money_Dictators
USDCAD (Monthly) — Wave 5 Extended, Structure IntactUSDCAD continues to trade within a well-defined rising channel, maintaining its long-term bullish structure. The broader Elliott Wave context suggests the market is in Wave 5 (extended), currently undergoing internal consolidation rather than trend exhaustion. 🔍 Key Observations Higher highs and higher lows remain intact Price holding above channel support No structural breakdown on monthly timeframe Momentum cooling is time-based, not price-destructive 📌 Key Levels Support zone: 1.30 – 1.33 Channel support: Critical for structure Structural invalidation: Only on sustained breakdown below channel support As long as price respects the channel, the primary trend remains bullish. Any consolidation within the structure should be viewed as digestive, not distributive. 📎 This analysis focuses on structure, not prediction. Disclaimer: This is a structural and educational analysis based on Elliott Wave and price behavior. Not financial advice. #MarketStructure #ElliottWave #USDCAD #ForexAnalysis #WaveTheory #TechnicalAnalysis #TrendStructure #MacroMarkets #PriceAction
by kacraj
1
USDCAD Trade Description – Liquidity Sweep + Discount Rejection USDCAD created a clean sell-side liquidity sweep below the previous low near 1.3700, taking out resting liquidity and tapping into a higher-timeframe discount zone. After the sweep, price showed a sharp rejection wick, signaling absorption of sell orders and a potential reversal. The market then broke structure to the upside on lower timeframes, confirming a shift in momentum. Price retraced back into the refinement zone / mitigation block, aligning perfectly with: ✔ Discount pricing ✔ Liquidity grab below the equal lows ✔ Rejection from a demand zone ✔ Bullish displacement following the sweep This offered a high-probability long setup with entry near the mitigation block, stop below the sweep low, and targets toward the premium zone around 1.3780–1.3800. The trade idea is based on price reverting back to its equilibrium after removing inefficient lows and collecting sell-side liquidity.
Long
by IITian_Wizard
2
USD/CAD – Liquidity & Structure Based Short IdeaUSD/CAD has been trading inside a well-defined rising channel for a while. Price is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, a zone where sellers have previously stepped in with strength. This area is not just resistance, it’s also a liquidity zone, where stop-losses of late buyers are resting above recent highs. Such zones often attract smart money activity before a directional move. What Price Is Telling Us: Price is currently stalling near resistance instead of expanding higher. We can observe Multiple rejections near the channel top, Overlapping candles showing loss of bullish momentum and Lack of strong follow-through despite previous volume spike. This behavior often appears before distribution or a corrective move, especially when price is trading at premium levels. If this analysis helped you, like, follow, and comment for more clean Forex breakdowns. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please manage risk responsibly.
Short
by TraderRahulPal
USDCAD MULTI TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS Looking for shorts on USDCAD. Yesterday grabbed previous day’s high and closed strong bearish, so bias stays down. Asian range is almost done and yesterday’s high is still intact. I’ve got two setups marked — first one is valid but lower probability, second one is cleaner with an FVG. Weekly is in discounted pricing so shorts aren’t perfect, but this is a 15M execution, so I’m not overthinking it. Just waiting for price to tap my zones — if it fails, I take the hit and move on. Setup Quality : (1st) ⭐⭐⭐, (2nd)⭐⭐⭐⭐
Short
by okako_trading
USDCAD - Breakout Will Flip the Trend BullishUSDCAD has been sliding inside a well-defined descending channel, completing a full five-wave drop toward the support zone. The structure from the top looks corrective rather than impulsive. That means the downtrend is weakening as it reaches its final leg. Your count shows Wave 3 finishing at the dashed red line zone, followed by a small Wave 4 bounce, and now the market is pushing into the last Wave 5. This final drop is expected to target the Fibonacci levels near 1.3915 and 1.3895 . Nothing suggests strength until those levels are tested. The price is still trapped inside the downward channel, and every bounce has been getting sold. That confirms sellers are still in control for now. Wave (C) is close to completion, but buyers haven’t proven anything yet. The bullish outlook only becomes valid after a clean breakout above the channel. Without that break, any upside move is just noise inside a bearish structure. The breakout must hold with a higher low to confirm a trend reversal. If the channel breaks decisively, a strong bullish reversal toward 1.40+ becomes possible. The entire structure suggests the downtrend is aging, so a major upside swing is likely once sellers exhaust. Until then, downside targets remain open and caution is necessary. Stay Tuned! @Money_Dictators
by Money_Dictators