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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD – Bullish Momentum Still DominatesIn July, the USD rose sharply by around 3.2% thanks to strong GDP data and tax-cut expectations, but this momentum is now fading quickly. Weak employment figures and concerns over the independence of the BLS, following Trump’s dismissal of its head, have undermined confidence in the USD. Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Barclays remain bearish, projecting that EUR/USD could reach the 1.20 area in the medium term. EUR/USD has maintained an upward trendline since early August, rebounding strongly from 1.1450–1.1500, breaking through FVG, and consolidating above 1.1627. The HH–HL structure confirms the bullish trend. Above 1.1630, price could target 1.1750; a breakout above 1.1750 would open the way to 1.1780–1.1800 (top of the long-term channel). Trading Plan: Main Trend: Bullish Potential Buy Zone: 1.1630 – 1.1650 (upon confirmation signal) Short-term Targets: 1.1750 → 1.1780 Medium-term Targets: 1.1900 and potentially 1.2000 Sop-loss: Below 1.1600
Long
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD – recovery aiming to test resistance zoneThe euro is benefiting from the weakening pressure on the US dollar as the market expects the Fed to loosen its monetary policy, combined with positive signals of trade cooperation between the US and Europe. This risk-on sentiment is supporting the short-term uptrend of EUR/USD. The price is moving within a short-term bullish structure and is approaching the resistance zone around 1.1770 , after rebounding strongly from the support area near 1.1630 . Recent pullbacks have been shallow and quickly absorbed, indicating that buyers still hold the upper hand. Base scenario: EUR/USD may consolidate in a tight range before breaking above 1.1770, opening room for further upside. As long as the 1.1630 support holds, any pullback can be seen as an opportunity to add long positions in line with the prevailing trend.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
2
EUR/USD – Uptrend Strengthens as USD WeakensMacro backdrop is favoring the euro: Weaker U.S. labor market (only 73,000 new jobs) is boosting expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Political pressure on the Fed raises concerns about its independence → USD loses credibility. EU–US trade deal eases tensions and supports confidence in the euro. Technical Outlook On the H4 chart, price has broken the downtrend line from July , forming a classic higher low structure – a hallmark of an uptrend. Price is moving within a short-term ascending channel , targeting the 1.1780 resistance zone. RSI has broken above 70, indicating strong buying momentum but also signaling a potential short-term pullback. Suggested Trading Strategy Prefer to Buy on dips toward the 1.1570–1.1600 support zone. Near-term target: 1.1780 Stop loss: Below 1.1520
Long
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD – Bottoming out, poised for breakoutAfter a sharp decline since late July, EURUSD is consolidating around the key support zone of 1.1520–1.1580. On the H4 chart, price remains within a descending channel but is beginning to form a compression pattern — often a precursor to a strong breakout. Bullish momentum is building as price rebounds from the 1.1480 low and holds a modest upward bias. On the macro front, the USD is weakening as markets increasingly expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September, especially after a string of weak labor data. In contrast, the EUR is supported by stable inflation and the ECB’s persistent hawkish stance. If the current support zone holds, EURUSD could break out of the descending channel and target the resistance levels at 1.1680 and 1.1770.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
2
EUR/USD Next Move - Bullish Continuation Setup 📊 1H Trend: Currently bullish, with structure showing higher lows and higher highs. I am monitoring a potential long opportunity at my defined zone. 🔑 Key Buy Zone 1.15885 – 1.15685 This area is a potential demand zone where price could bounce. Stop Loss (SL): 1.15600 📌 Entry Strategy Entry should only be considered after confirmation on the 15m and 5m timeframes. This ensures the setup is aligned with market structure and avoids premature entries. 🎯 Targets TP1: 1.16418 TP2: 1.16950 Taking partial profits at TP1 and running the rest toward TP2 could provide a balanced risk-to-reward. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a market observation for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always trade based on your own plan and risk management.
by ExoFx-Subhash
EURUSD – bearish trend remains dominantEURUSD is trading within a clearly defined descending channel. After a slight rebound from the 1.14800 support zone, the price is now retesting the resistance area around 1.16000 – a zone filled with multiple previous Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). If the price fails to break above this level, the bearish trend is likely to continue with a potential move down toward 1.14000. Latest news: Weaker-than-expected US job data initially pressured the USD, but growing expectations that the Fed will maintain its tightening stance are helping the dollar recover – putting downward pressure on the euro. Summary: If EURUSD fails to break above 1.16000, a continuation of the downtrend toward 1.14000 is likely in the coming days.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD remains in a downtrendEUR/USD continues to move within a descending channel, with the 1.1600 area acting as strong resistance. Recent price action suggests the current rebound may be just a retest before the downtrend resumes. The next bearish target is around the 1.1390 support zone. On the news front, although a strong U.S. PMI puts slight pressure on EUR, the USD faces mixed forces: Weak NFP data increases expectations of a Fed rate cut. The new US–EU trade deal imposing a 15% tariff has sharply weakened the euro. Eurozone PMI improved but remains below 50, indicating a still-fragile recovery.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
EUR/USD May Dip to 1.136 Before Targeting 1.178 and 1.182EUR/USD is in a broader uptrend but may first take a minor dip toward the 1.136 support zone before resuming its bullish momentum. This pullback could provide a healthier structure for the next leg higher. If the pair holds above 1.136 and shows bullish confirmation, it could head toward the next upside targets at 1.178 and 1.182 in the coming sessions. Key Levels: 🔻 Short-term Support: 1.136 🎯 Upside Targets: 1.178 → 1.182 📌 Bias: Bullish above 1.136 on confirmation 🔍 Watch for a higher low and momentum shift near 1.136 #EURUSD #ForexAnalysis #PriceAction #BullishOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #TrueDirections1
Long
by VikasBajajICT
EUR/USD 1H Chart Analysis – Bearish Setup Alert!Price is currently forming a rising wedge, a pattern often associated with a bearish reversal. After a sharp bullish impulse, the pair is showing signs of exhaustion below the key resistance zone (1.1575 - 1.1596). 🔻 Potential Bearish Scenario: Breakdown below the wedge support could trigger a deeper correction. Immediate support: 1.1546 - 1.1540 If that breaks, next downside targets: ➤ 1.1485, ➤ 1.1416, ➤ 1.1408 🔒 Invalidation Zone: Bullish momentum may resume only if price breaks and closes above 1.1596 with volume. 📌 Keep an eye on price action near the wedge boundary—breakout or breakdown will define the next move. #EURUSD #ForexTrading #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #FXMarket #TradingSetup #ChartPatterns #BearishSignal
Short
by FinanciallyFreedomTrader
1
EURUSD Eyes Short Structure Break📌 EURUSD 15-min — Structure Breakdown After Consolidation Near Resistance Technical Chart Breakdown (15m): 🔴 SELL Signal triggered after price rejected upper boundary of a tight consolidation box. 🟠 Multiple rejections formed just below 1.158 — suggesting local supply absorption. 🔻 Price broke below the red moving average and consolidation low, confirming momentum shift. 🟡 Leola Lens caution structure (box cluster) marked a potential pause before breakdown. 📉 Downside focus remains valid as long as price stays below 1.158. 🔍 Structural target zone extends toward 1.15, with intermediate reaction levels visible. Disclaimer: This chart is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Always conduct your own analysis and manage risk appropriately.
Short
by LEOLALENS-OFFICIAL
EURUSD – Euro tumbles under strong dollar pressureAfter a brief uptick following the US–EU trade agreement, EUR/USD quickly sank under a wave of strong US economic data. While import tariffs on EU goods were reduced to 15%, the US dollar gained more as capital kept flowing into the US thanks to a Q2 GDP growth above 3%, steady PCE, and a strong ADP report. On the H4 chart, the bearish structure is clear: EUR/USD broke below key support and formed a series of unfilled FVGs, signaling sellers are still in control. The current pullback towards the 1.14300 resistance zone could act as a bull trap, with the next target eyed near 1.12300 — a likely liquidity zone. If this area breaks, the 1.1200 mark may be triggered next. Meanwhile, USD strength shows no signs of fading — especially as the Fed maintains a cautious stance with no easing in sight. The euro is no longer seen as a safe haven, and investors are gradually pulling out.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
2
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Count Signals Downside TargetsThe EUR/USD chart is displaying a completed 5-wave Elliott impulse structure, suggesting the potential start of a larger corrective move to the downside. Wave 5 appears to have finished after a classic ending diagonal pattern, with price now breaking below the wave 4 support trendline — a strong confirmation of trend exhaustion. Currently, price is retracing upward towards the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone of the last impulsive leg, around 1.15912–1.16383, which may serve as the final rejection zone for bears to re-enter. This area aligns perfectly with prior support-turned-resistance and is considered the potential reversal pocket. If price holds below the 1.17869 invalidation level, the structure supports the beginning of an ABC correction or a larger bearish impulse. Target 1 (T1): 1.14800 Target 2 (T2): 1.13915 Stop Loss (SL): 1.17869 This scenario remains valid as long as the price does not break above 1.17869. A clean break and close above this level would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest a possible wave extension.
by Money_Dictators
EUR/USD - 1H Bearish Scenario ! Sell Zone Identification🔍 Market Context On the 1H timeframe, EUR/USD continues to show a bearish market structure. Price is expected to bounce back into a premium area before resuming its downward trend. This creates a fresh Sell Zone between 1.15350 – 1.15800, aligning with supply and retracement levels. ✅ Trade Plan Sell Zone: 1.15400 – 1.15800 Execution: Wait for confirmation on 5m or 15m timeframe before entry: Break of Structure (BOS) Strong bearish displacement candle Stop Loss (SL): Above 1.1600 Targets (TP): TP1: 1.14700 TP2: 1.14400 After Than Trail ⚠️ Risk Note Do not enter blindly — always wait for lower timeframe confirmation. Manage risk carefully, as bounce-backs can trap early sellers.
by ExoFx-Subhash
EURUSD at risk of reversal: will sellers take control?Hello everyone! What are your thoughts on EURUSD? Lately, the euro has been under pressure due to growing weakness in the Eurozone economy. The European Central Bank (ECB) has sent out more cautious signals in response to rising recession risks and cooling inflation. This increases the likelihood that the ECB may wrap up its tightening cycle earlier than the Fed – a shift that could weigh heavily on EURUSD. From a technical standpoint, EURUSD recently hit a peak around 1.1766 after several attempts, and a CHOCH (Change of Character) reversal pattern may be forming. If the pair fails to reclaim the 1.1766 zone, a deeper downside scenario is likely to unfold. As for me, I’m currently favoring short setups, especially around supply zones or after failed retests. Discipline and solid risk management remain my top priorities. How about you? What’s your take on this pair?
Short
by Kevinn_Nguyen
1