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Rotation between stocks and sectors is a killer, making choosing stocks inside an ongoing rally difficult. What moves today gets killed tomorrow without a similar impact on the underlying index. This pain has no resolution but quick identification of failure and booking profits. But the index has a strong setup so far, holding support levels, falling in small...

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As Nifty broke the Dec low of 17774 intraday the inter-market divergence between Nifty and the Nifty Midcap 100 index became more blatant. The divergence is a bullish divergence when one index makes a new low unconfirmed by the other. It remains to see how this will unfold.

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Classic dow theory states that a new low in one index not confirmed by others indicates a potential trend reversal on cards. Nonconfirmation amounts to inter-market divergences that are bullish or bearish. In this situation, the new low in bank nifty today over the last few days is not confirmed by the Nifty. Even more, the outperformance of the Midcap 100 index...

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inter-market analysis can be tricky but even as the USDINR hit a new high yesterday, the last two days bounce on hourly charts is a-b-c, what that means is that it is not a new move but the end of something. If USDINR closes down today after that it would add weight to a positive near-term outlook for the Nifty given the historical inverse correlation between...

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The lead lag between the currency pair and Nifty can give lead indications of a trend change in the offing. A new high in USDINR in Oct not confirmed by a new low in Nifty was a bullish indication, but this week a new high in Nifty not confirmed by a new low in USDINR is a bearish indication.

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Nifty is following the classic Dow theory definition of an up trend, a series of higher highs and lows and till that is violated why bother. Day to day volatility because of US stock indices going up or down on data like Consumer confidence or GDP can be confusing but a technical setup is simpler to follow. So far the Nifty is showing relative resilience despite...

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Nifty is making lower lows and highs as the trend unfolds and is far from over from an elliott wave perspective. A lot of people are still bullish but there is no panic in the market as seen by the selling volumes that are absent. There is no selling climax.

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In search of the next bottom, we look for five-wave declines to complete. Prices have been falling inside a channel and a breakout would put us in the price territory of the previous ivth wave near 16404 to the gap zone near 16484. But what if we do not breakout and keep falling below 16000 we could see a free fall with multiple extensions on the downside....

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Starting December banking stocks are leading from the front, and there is a change in trend. Banks surpassed yesterdays high ahead of Nifty and the Rohits Momentum on hourly had a clear buy signal that did not whipsaw like it did on Nifty. Banks should continue to outperform the Nifty in the days weeks ahead and for 2022 as a whole in my view.

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Nifty Hourly charts and the Rohits Momentum now share a positive bullish divergence and one more buy signal afterward. Minor wave ii? Everytime you do not get a V shaped recovery but price action is a process that you have to follow with all the arsenals you have in Technical Analysis.

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The hourly Rohits momentum indicator gave abuy signal that failed and flipped back to sell, which allows for risk management by traders but that does not change the Elliott Wave view that we are in wave II. That requires deeper thinking and observations. The only alternate is wave 5 was truncated and the recent top ended an 18-month bull phase. Time will tell...

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The signal is the first sign, wave counts add weight to it and a higher time frame chart like the daily chart needs to confirm it. That is the process we follow and this was a start at 1.00pm today. Lets see the follow up. Position sizing in play

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The number of classic relationships that I have to debunk just to be on the right side and convince the world is just overboard. And the charts are as straightforward as they can be. So here goes stupidity. Rising bond yields are not dollar bullish, at least not in the time frame of this chart. So when bond yields rise then the dollar actually falls. Yes...

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The two Indices Dow and Nifty have moved in opposite directions for months Now or most of 2021 and that pattern continues. So it comes no surprise to me that we are up and the Dow is down on this chart.

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Nifty either started a series of bullish impulses higher or as the red alternate wave counts show we have one final leg down in Z. We are in late stages of this corrective process and Z can sometimes truncate at a higher low as well. After that the selling is mostly over and we head straight up. A breakout above 17300 means we have taken off to the moon.

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The most recent bounce is not an impulsive move so maybe it is an x wave and that means one more a-b-c down can follow and waves a and b are already done. Next week should see wave c complete into the year-end. but will it make new lows? The Nifty Elliott wave update with weekly charts and wave counts is already online on indiacharts.com, enjoy my Truth about the Markets

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A double bottom below the 17000 mark it is, pending some price confirmation. If you think that the most recent decline is a 5 waves down and more selling is due then this alternate count will get vindicated when Nifty moves above 17490. That is the final confirmation that we have a bottom in place for the time being. Then we can think about the bullish alternate...

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A breakout from the falling channel and above the 40hema at 17337 would be a good sign that the current decline from 18210 is over and will raise the odds that the 6 week correction also ended. Then its back to the bull market that already was unless proven otherwise.