viswaram

viswaram

Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Even though we added 93pts today, I have still not changed my stance to bullish. 19226 is my first level to watch out which coincides with the 38.2% retracement level of the recent fall. Then the most important zone of 19310. Ideally, I wish to go long only if the 19310 resistance is taken out.” The open (19233.7) was quite...

viswaram

BankNifty Analysis Since BankNifty is in the neighbourhood of support and resistance, it is quite easy to explain with examples. The open was almost inline but we started dropping fast. We gave up 438pts ~ 1.02% by 09.40. Unlike Nifty50, I did not find it that encouraging to look out for bearish opportunities. The main reason is the decay of premiums. None of the...

viswaram

Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “A simple Fibonacci level places the 23.6% retracement level at 19083 and 38.2% at 19227. Ideally, the bearish trend could still be intact until 19227 but the problem is that we cannot predict with certainty if that would come in this weekly series or not. For Monday, I wish to go with a neutral stance and choose the direction...

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Brokers are the last people on earth to whom we would like to give credit. Social media is flooded with posts that say “My broker did not help me square off positions…”, “My broker’s app stuck in between..”, “My broker did not help me login…” etc. I believe 99 out of 100 support tickets they get every day would be problems, glitches, and issues. Being a broker is...

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BankNifty Analysis During periods of trend reversals, BankNifty will act as the leading indicator. I hope that will work out in this period as well. Today’s price action is quite too early to say if we have reversed the bearish trend - because it was mostly support and resistance play. BN started around the 42576 zone and held its ground confirming the lack of...

viswaram

Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my bearish stance and expect Nifty to trade between 18880 and 18762. If we break 18762, my next target would be 18597.” Nifty took a breather today, opened gap up around the 18930 area and rose steadily. We did not retouch or break the low of 25 Oct ie 19075 zone, slightly indicating that the...

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BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis BankNifty had 1 extra in this week as the last expiry was on Wednesday. But the extra day was cut short as we had a scheduled holiday (Dussehra) in between. BankNifty did not fall as much as Nifty, it fell only 3.64% ~ 1597pts compared to 3.9% on Nifty. The premiums on the option strikes were not good enough except today. But I am...

viswaram

Nifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Nifty fell a whopping 765pts ~ 3.90% between the last expiry and today. Most importantly it has retraced all its gains from 28th June to close below 18880. We will cover why that is relevant below, but this fall of 4% signals a reversal in trend. Even though VIX is still below 12%, it is showing a tendency to spike, reassuring the...

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BankNifty Analysis BankNifty was a pure support and resistance play today. If you had seen my charts earlier - you would have seen the marked SR zones and noticed how we reacted to 3 of those levels today. Open was gap-up above the 43253 SR level. We went up to 43404 zone and got rejected and came back. We spent some time back at the 43253 levels with no special...

viswaram

Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since we are back at the 19310 levels, my point is — the next fall may be as deep as 18880 i.e 430pts ~ 2%. Nifty has no experience trading between these 2 zones earlier, so the supports should be equally powerless. I can mark the top of the candles as support zones, but they would be predictably weak (19190 & 18969).” Nifty...

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BankNifty Analysis BankNifty on the other hand had a gap up open, thanks to the excellent results from ICICI Bank. To a great extent, BankNifty resisted the down move on Nifty. Even till 13.55, it was only 0.17% below the previous close. But right after that, it fell like a house of cards. Whatever support ICICI gave till then was undone. ICICI ended up closing...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.” If you watched the opening minutes, you would not have guessed the 283+ intraday fall possibilities. We had a flat open instead of a gap-down even after a weak handout from...

viswaram

BankNifty Analysis The greatest surprise of today came from BankNifty. A perfect flat closing today. I was hoping for a 400+ pts fall today considering how the global indices ended the trade yesterday, also how the US banks were tanking. The resilience Indian banks showed today deserves special mention. If you look at the price action today, we went green by...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound — but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.” Nifty...

viswaram

BankNifty Analysis The main villain who spoiled the plans for the bears is BankNifty. We had an opening candle swing of 333pts on the downside, but the price action was not looking that bearish for some or other reason. Ideally, we are below the support level of 44068 and any down-swing should have created an avalanche of shorts. Instead, we started climbing back...

viswaram

Nifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only fallen 172pts ~ 0.87%. Meanwhile, BankNifty fell 1.42% in its weekly expiry (we discussed it in yesterday’s newsletter). Nifty is still range bound whereas BankNifty has dropped below the support. Usually BankNifty leads the reversals, so we can increase our expectation of a fall in Nifty...

viswaram

BankNifty Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty lost 630pts and almost 82% of that came today. Interestingly the stable support level of 44068 is now breached. Remember we went below this level on 31-Aug, 04-Oct and 09-Oct and we managed to climb back every time. Will it be different this time? BankNifty Today Analysis The leader during...

viswaram

Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, we have formed an island just above the 19776 levels. Today’s swing high has taken out the highs of 12th October. I wish to continue with my bullish stance as long as the support of 19776 is respected. Ideally, the next target should be 19907 and then 19998 if we are going up. Not sure why, but our markets are...