viswaram

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BankNifty Weekly Expiry Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has gained 525pts ~ 1.2%. The fall on 9th October was nicely covered up by the price actions on 10th and 11th. This is the 2nd time BankNifty has recovered after falling below 44068, the bulls are still strong. BankNifty Today Analysis There were many things different about the expiry today....

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the hourly chart — India replies with 5 white soldiers to the war news (3 white soldiers means 3 strong green candles). We have not taken out the 19776 resistance so far — but we are pretty close. I wish to change my stance from neutral to bullish with the first target of 19776 and the 2nd target of 19847.” Nifty...

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BankNifty Analysis The real reason for the rally on Nifty was BankNifty. Remember yesterday we discussed how it fell below the support of 44068 and then had an intraday rejection. We also went with a bearish view for today. The first thing the gap-up and the swing of 1st candle did was to breach the resistance. A +268pts ~ 0.61% open was more than adequate. Then...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”For true bearishness 19350 or the recent swing low has to be taken out tomorrow. Well, I have a bearish bias because of the LONG PUT option — but the charts are not showing anything so far. If we bounce back from the 19446 level tomorrow also — I may be forced to close out the position at a loss. For tomorrow I would like to...

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BankNifty Analysis On Friday I changed my stance from bearish to neutral since we had a strong performance. We pushed through the 44068 resistance and maintained those levels. But today we dropped below that and even closed lower. Notice we took out the 44068 level in the opening 5mts candle itself. From there we hit a new swing low of 43796 and then recovered...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For Monday, I wish to continue my neutral stance but keep my options open for bullish moves. The moment 19776 is tested and broken — we can expect further participation to take Nifty much ahead. For the bears to make a comeback — the US markets have to close in DEEP RED today.” Nifty opened mega gap-down due to the shocking...

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BankNifty Analysis I had a bearish view for today, but it played out as a bad day for the bears. The RBI MPC meeting at 10 am did not move the needle that much. Usually, the RBI Governor’s speech drives up the volatility and we have some adverse moves. There was one strong move of 250pt from 10.50 to 11.20 where we pulled back from 44500 levels. Even then the...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Although we had a good green day today — the body of the candle was not good enough. So I am not changing my stance from bearish to bullish instead, I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow.” Everything went in the bull’s way today. The opening was gap-up followed by a steady upward-looking rally. Even though we had the...

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BankNifty Analysis BankNifty had a similar chart pattern as that of Nifty. An opening gap-up of 272pts ~ 0.6% and then a 2nd leg of rally from 10.30 of 279pts ~ 0.63%. The only difference I saw was that after the day’s high was hit - BankNifty started falling gradually whereas Nifty went flat. Tomorrow’s RBI MPC outcome at 10.00 might be interesting. We would...

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Nifty Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only lost 6pts. Quite a rarity to see a flat close especially when we had some strong preceding moves. The recovery today gave Nifty a strong character change as well. It was looking a lot negative yesterday and further fall was looking obvious. Nifty Daily Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The...

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BankNifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has only fallen 291pts. That fall coincides with a strong support level break - which may bring in additional pain for the long-only traders. It is also significant that BankNifty broke the crucial level ahead of Nifty reiterating its position as a leading indicator. BankNifty Today’s...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The orange support and resistance lines remain the same, the bottom one is @ 19446, top one at 19776. We just completed an M pattern (double top) on the 1hr TF. For tomorrow I continue to remain bearish with the support getting broken in the opening 1hr. Ideally, we should retest the 19310 support if not break it.” The...

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SPX is down 6.07% from Sep whereas Nifty is only down 0.74%. If the coupling still exists and we think of US markets as the mother market - then further pain awaits Indian indices. There are 2 factors which could play spoilsport 1. Rising oil prices - going to cost dearly as we are a net oil importer 2. Rising dollar index - this will push down the INR much...

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FinNifty Weekly Expiry Between the last expiry and today, Finnifty has lost only 80pts ~ 0.4%. The options premium was staying pretty low today also, one of the reasons could be the 4-day expiry as we had a holiday yesterday. Strangely FinNifty is not looking as bearish as BankNifty - I am still inclined to go neutral on the 1hr chart. Also, the first support...

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BankNifty Analysis For today I had a neutral stance instead of a bearish one - mainly because we made a double bottom pattern in the last session. But the opening 5mts candle simply negated that in one go. Still, Banknifty was staying relatively strong versus Nifty. Both of them did break the swing low - but BankNifty’s recovery was more convincing. Bulls should...

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Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “My stance still remains bearish with the first downside target of 19446. The moment we break 19776 on the upside — I wish to exit the short stance and go long.” The first target of 19446 was not today even though we dropped 103pts in the opening 5mts. The low of today was 19479 breaking the recent swing low of 19492. Two...

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BankNifty Analysis The main reason Nifty50 moved up instead of falling was BankNifty. The opening was strong and gain BN held its ground. Today’s low much higher than yesterday’s close. From that level we rallied 408pts ~ 0.92% to hit a high of 44756. Unlike N50, BN retested yesterday’s high and then reversed from there. My report yesterday was on the bearish...

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Nifty Analysis We are beginning a new weekly, monthly and quarterly (Q3 2023-24) series today. Yesterday’s close = 19523. Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, Nifty is still looking weak. The next target should be 19446 followed by 19310 if are continuing the downward move. In case we reverse and move up, the first level to watch will be 19776. I wish to change...