viswaram

viswaram

Nifty hits an all time high of 19523.6 at 10.00 today, this was after we opened gap down and then had a series of powerful green candles. The surge that took N50 higher was so special that if you looked at 10.00 AM you would never have thought of going short. Opening gap down was due to the handout from the global markets & it was expected. but the 102pts rally...

viswaram

Weekly Analysis BankNifty Between the last expiry & today, banknifty has gained 923pts ~ 2.08%. The rally not as neat as Nifty50 but more than enough to get the job done. Remember BN hit a new ATH this week. Today's Analysis  BankNifty did not follow N50 initially, for a noticeable time BN was hinting at a sideways move. HDFCBk started the day in red, ICICI &...

viswaram

I became a believer today, amazing outperformance by our stock market indices, Nifty50 hits a new all time high of 19512.2 (conquering the 19500 level for the first time). At 19350 levels I had an interim top call & the market has proven me wrong (yet again). Today's super surge is nothing short of extra ordinary, the global cues were pretty negative after US FED...

viswaram

Banknifty's chart was looking quite different from that of Nifty50 today. This might be because of the -3.18% fall in HDFCBK. Finnify was looking weaker as the HDFC also weighed its -3.07% loss. Earlier in the day N50 was struggling to stay green after this duo tanked. BN followed a falling channel today, the rally in last 30mts made a difference but was not...

viswaram

I had a feeling that we are nearing a top after seeing the price action on 03 Jul. The 4th Jul session was also cementing that thought. And today's session till 14.35 was giving me lot of confidence to take a short position. But what happened from 14.40 to close, esp. 15.500 to 15.10 was simply unbelievable. Nifty rose 0.42% ~ 81.3pts to end the day flat at 0.05%...

viswaram

Just like yesterday, the jump in options premium at CE side was explosive. BAJFINANCE +7.19%, BAJAJFINSV +5.8% was the main reason for the gap-up opening. This screenshot was taken at 10.12 almost near the end of the opening 1hr, Finnifty was around the 20300 level. Its quite understood when the near ATMs has so high premiums — but the far away OTMs is unusual....

viswaram

BN chart is interesting today, again just like N50 we had a falling 45mts open wherein BN lost 0.8% to go below prev. close. From there it reversed and then rallied 1.46% ~ 655pts to hit a new ATH of 45655 by 13.30 mainly due to the rally in SBIN, KOTAKBANK. PNB +5.94%, FEDERALBANK +3.49% even though their weightage on the index is not that heavy. Again the PUT...

viswaram

BN had a different style of price action today comparing with N50. The open was gap-up & the rush to hit the HOD at 09.55 was similar. But what followed from there had minor changes. 1. The fall of 0.69% ~ 312pts from the top did have an impact on the momentum 2. Unlike N50, BN did not persist at the HOD levels after the first retracement. N50 had 3 more attempts...

viswaram

Another island formation by N50, gap up opening of 68+ points and then a rising with strong momentum. I was eagerly waiting for a pullback to take some contra positions. Although we had a small retracement from 10.30 to 11.20 approx 78pts - there was no follow-through. So the only viable option trade was selling the PUTS. This is the 4th consecutive day where N50...

viswaram

Before we discuss the daily analysis, let me pull up the huge explosive jump in Finnifty CE prices. Usually I dont bore you with FinNifty chart or number unless its expiry day, but today requires some real attention! This screenshot was taken at 13.09 today, with just 1 more day to expiry the jump in premiums were hugely unusual. Agreed Finnifty was up 1.25% by...

viswaram

Comparing with N50, banknifty did close the gap-up opening. Looking at the opening minutes I felt BN had more inclination to fall into the trading range of the previous day, but the way in which NiftyIT was surging - BN would have changed the mind to play along. BN also hit a new all time high of 44787.1 today, but the thrust to go up was not as convincing as...

viswaram

Nifty opened gap up at 19076 immediately hitting an all time high, that was just the start. Most of the traders were expecting N50 to close the gap and fall to the trading range of the previous day. That did not happen, instead N50 was firing on all cylinders. The major reason for this thrust in rally came from NiftyIT which ended +2.5% today. IT's strength...

viswaram

Quarterly Analysis of Nifty50 — 31 Mar 2023 to 28 Jun 2023 N50 also rose 11.06% ~ 1888pts, percentage wise same as BN. The price action of N50 was much more healthy with 2 proper legs & occasional retracement that gave it further thrust. If you analyze the pattern from 01 Dec to 28 Jun it looks like a perfect V shape. 16962 support which provided the crucial turn...

viswaram

Quarterly Analysis of BankNifty — 31 Mar 2023 to 28 Jun 2023 Banknify gained an impressive 4412pts ~ 11.05% in Q1 FY2023–24. During this process it took out 11 crucial resistance points to finish at the ATH. The upmove was quite strong till 15th May after which BN started trading sideways. Status quo changed on 27th when it broke through the final resistance point...

viswaram

The trend started in Finnifty which was responsible for the last hour surges in BN and N50. If you look at the Finnifty chart today - it was positive right from the start. From 11.10 to 15.10 we had a decent rise of 1.27% ~ 248pts. Today was the expiry day & till 14.00 we did not see any major impact to the options premium. But right after that the CE premiums...

viswaram

Nifty opened right at the resistance zone of 18762 and then had a flattish pattern. Again the gap up would be due to front running by few players. Instead of falling to the previous close level - N50 held its ground and was aiming for resistance level breakout. The price action was not as dramatic as BN or Finnifty as the resistance breach came in very late in...

viswaram

BN opened at 43804 and then had a flattish price move till 13.00 after which it propelled forward like a rocket. Interestingly Finnifty's chart (which we will discuss shortly) had more thrust compared to BN & N50. The 470 pts rally we had from 13.05 to close was nothing short of remarkable. Initially the momentum was slow, but as soon as the short covering...

viswaram

N50 also had very little movement today to fire up the options premium. We even have a 10000 PE for the current week expiry. i.e a strike which is 47% below the spot price. Even a nuclear war will not take us there by Thursday. N50 also maintained the ground today, not falling below the 18650 level ensuring the swing low of 23rd is not broken. When we ended the...