07 Jul '23 Post Mortem on Nifty - time for shorts

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Nifty hits an all time high of 19523.6 at 10.00 today, this was after we opened gap down and then had a series of powerful green candles. The surge that took N50 higher was so special that if you looked at 10.00 AM you would never have thought of going short.

Opening gap down was due to the handout from the global markets & it was expected. but the 102pts rally to the ATH was unusual. I am quite sure the last of the bears would have exited the marketplace seeing the strength. Now when we look back, it seems like a classic pump and dump scheme!

Trades Taken
As soon as the N50 broke today's low 10.45, I took a bearish credit spread i.e sell 19500 CE at 62.25 and buy 19600 CE at 32.85. The max profit on this trade is Rs1470, max loss is Rs3530 and Break even = 19529.4. The risk:reward = 2.4.
This is taken for the current weekly expiry and since its a credit strategy, the time decay will help it. If the market stays as it is or continues to go down the position will remain profitable. If the market scales back up to 19500 levels quickly, my position will start bleeding & I would have to start running for cover.

1hr TF
The indicator gave a sell signal by 12.15 only on the 1hr chart. Since the intraday is viewed at a lower time frame of 15mts & 5mts - the trade was taken early.

N50 is currently at the 3rd July close levels wherein there was a top like formation. If we continue to fall from here then the trades between 03 Jul to 07 Jul will look like a blip on a longer time frame. Having said that 19330 will form the first support/resistance zone (although not strong).


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