11 Jul '23 Post Mortem on Nifty + Long call continues...

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Today we had a perfect inverted V formation. The high of the day at exact 12.00 noon. A rally of 82pts from opening level and then a fall of 66pts. Even though nifty fell today, it was showing so much of positive energy and a general reluctance to fall. We will bring up the comparison with banknifty shortly & it will make sense.

Today's peak formation ensured we are getting a double top at the ATH levels ~ 19508. The profit booking may be attributed to that. If we continue to fall in the coming days - its better to change the bias from long to neutral.


Trades Taken
Yesterday I had reversed my short position to long position & had carried the 19400/19300 PE bullish credit spread overnight. Luckily it worked out alright today. By 10.43 I exited at a price of 29.6/12.9. I exited because more than 50% of premiums had decayed & not because I was bearish.

At the same time I entered into 19400/19300 PE bullish credit spread of the 20th July series for a price of 74.7/48.4. We then had the classic reversal, almost back to the open levels.
Somehow I felt the risk:reward was not matching & then exited the new position at a loss by 14.46 @ 79.7/49.4 and got back to the 19400/19300 PE spread in the 13th Jul series for 32.7/12.3.

The 15.00 candle really scared me and if you calculate the risk:reward was 3980:1020. So I exited the credit spread & went ahead with the call debit spread of 19300/19400 CE @ 176.15/95.15 by 15.03. The rationale being 19300 was still in the money & might offer some cushion as expiry is in 2 days. Whereas 19400 PE could go in the money if the move is 50pts or more.


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