13 Jul '23 Post Mortem on Nifty + Weekly expiry analysis

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Nifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry & today, Nifty50 is actually down 40pts ~ 0.21%. That seems quite hard to believe especially when we had an ATH break today right?
The fact is N50 broke out from the 19500 levels today & that would have created the perception that nifty had a gaining week. Also on 7th July we had a red day and almost touched the 19300 levels. So credit goes to N50 since it recovered all its losses & hit a new ATH of 19567 today!


Nifty Daily Analysis
We had 2 strong moves today
A gap up open and then a race to take out the ATH, a total swing of 182pts ~ 0.94%
A similar fall of 180pts ~ 0.92% to touch the prev. close value

Both the directional move would have given ample opportunity for options traders to mint money today.
Final close was 0.15% higher mainly supported by the NiftyIT index. The dramatic inverted U shape price action was due to RELIANCE which fell from 2799 to 2743. HDFCBK, KOTAKBK & SBIN also dragged the index.
Trades Taken
Other than the regular expiry trades, I reopened a bullish PE credit spread between 10 to 10.30 AM. 19500/19400 PE for 67.45/40.65. This was taken when Nifty was at the ATH and due to the reversal this position is currently in loss.
Will take a decision tomorrow to hold on to bullish bias or exit at a loss.


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