14 Jul '23 Post Mortem on Nifty - green 1hr candles after 10.30

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
If you had witnessed yesterday's 13.15 hourly candle that took out 95pts ~ 0.49%, you would not have guessed Nifty will rebound today. At least I did not expect. 

I was having a bullish bias on nifty50 which you can understand from the report yesterday, but the bullish PUT spread carried forward from yesterday had an unfavorable risk reward. I made up the mind to exit this credit spread at a decent level today & re-enter at a favorable ratio.

At 15.05 I exited the 19500/19400 PE at 60.9/33.4 for a marginal loss. And after that we had another 87pts rally ~ 0.45%. Not only I exited at a loss on a profit that would have gone immensely profitable had I hung on, I did not get a pull back to re-enter.

Today's rally mainly spearheaded by NiftyIT up 4.45% was definitely an event to watch. Nifty opened gap up but was showing a negative bias. We had a fall of 62pts till 10.20 after which it turned around and was grinding up slowly.

Banknifty on the other hand was falling continuously and it was evident its not going to support nifty today. But right at 14.45 some magic happened & banknifty turned around sparking a newfound momentum to nifty50 as well.

Not only nifty pushed through the 19500 level, but hit a new ATH of 19595 today. ie a total intraday swing of 161pts.

Further upside movements will be faced with very little resistances and its the easiest path for Nifty. Well that is what most traders will think and position for. I would personally like to wait out this trend and re-enter when the levels are bit for comfortable for me.


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