Hello all, here I present you my newest EWT analysis on bitcoin using the 4 hours chart in the middle term major cycle. Let's enjoy it!
Based on my Elliot wave count, I assume that currently the price is on its process to finish the sub wave 4 of the wave 3 in the higher degree. There are some factors that supports my bias for this Elliot wave theory and here they are :
1. On a very bullish market, usually the wave 4 will remains flat as a consolidation phase. Looking at the price characteristic, the fact that the price is forming a descending triangle pattern is showing us that consolidation phase is still in play.
2. Mostly, the 4th wave won't retrace more than the area of .382 fibonacci retracement level. Currently the .382 is becoming a strong support that has held the price from further drop and as the floor for the descending triangle pattern.
3. Looking at the RSI, we haven't seen any sign of the bearish divergence which usually become the early sign of potential reversal. We have seen the peak that has crossed the overbought region at April 20th But, we haven't seen another attempt of the RSI that enters this region again. And of course the price hasn't made a higher high pattern yet.
4. On the MACD analysis, the histogram is ticking to the upside with a strength has grown in the last 24 hours. With this kind of gaining momentum of the bulls, there is likely that the histogram will continue ticks to the positive region which will give a potential bullish momentum on the price.
For now, there are 2 potential trade set up in the future :
- Breaks above the upper line of the descending triangle, activate the long position and target at least the interim swing high at $9400 and $10500 for longer term target.
- Breaks below the lower line of the descending triangle, activate the short position and target at least the $7700 and $6500 for longer term target.
With a price comes closer to the APEX, There is a potential volatility comes in the near future.
Based on my Elliot wave count, I assume that currently the price is on its process to finish the sub wave 4 of the wave 3 in the higher degree. There are some factors that supports my bias for this Elliot wave theory and here they are :
1. On a very bullish market, usually the wave 4 will remains flat as a consolidation phase. Looking at the price characteristic, the fact that the price is forming a descending triangle pattern is showing us that consolidation phase is still in play.
2. Mostly, the 4th wave won't retrace more than the area of .382 fibonacci retracement level. Currently the .382 is becoming a strong support that has held the price from further drop and as the floor for the descending triangle pattern.
3. Looking at the RSI, we haven't seen any sign of the bearish divergence which usually become the early sign of potential reversal. We have seen the peak that has crossed the overbought region at April 20th But, we haven't seen another attempt of the RSI that enters this region again. And of course the price hasn't made a higher high pattern yet.
4. On the MACD analysis, the histogram is ticking to the upside with a strength has grown in the last 24 hours. With this kind of gaining momentum of the bulls, there is likely that the histogram will continue ticks to the positive region which will give a potential bullish momentum on the price.
For now, there are 2 potential trade set up in the future :
- Breaks above the upper line of the descending triangle, activate the long position and target at least the interim swing high at $9400 and $10500 for longer term target.
- Breaks below the lower line of the descending triangle, activate the short position and target at least the $7700 and $6500 for longer term target.
With a price comes closer to the APEX, There is a potential volatility comes in the near future.
