I spy with my little eye, something beginning with the letter A

Oct 22, 2022

This is a very contrarian take because on one hand we have 14 root causes for inflation:

1. Unlimited economic growth triggers Natural resource depletion since 2014
2. Expanding middle class in emerging economies since Brexit and Trump
3. Populism, polarization and uncertainty
4. The Great Reset (COV-ID-19)
5. The Federal Reserve printing
6. Insider Trading
7. Systemic devaluation of local currencies in emerging economies
8. China's zero covid triggers Inflationary Supply Chain Shocks
9. Russia and Ukraine war
10. Gas crisis in Europe
11. Evergrande's Real state collapse
12. Volatility & Bankruptcy: Credit Suisse & Deutsche Bank
13. Economic Trade Wars and World War 3 forsee a total collapse
14. Extreme weather triggers Water Scarcity

And on the other hand we have:

1. High Employment rate and Job offers booming
2. Putin losing the war and could suddenly withdraw
3. Japan Intervention
4. UK's prime minister Liz Truss quit
5. Saudi Arabia is Interested in Joining the BRICS
6. Mainstream Propaganda is being excessively negative lately
7. We're probably not at the end of a big 100 year cycle but probably back to the 80s
8. Latinamerica flipping left wing except Uruguay
9. Big demographic change means big wealth transfer from baby boomers retiring to millenials
10. Crypto market maturing still pending Ripple's lawsuit resolution
11. Japanese intervention
12. Countries deglobalizing

There are many paralels that pinpoint to 3 historic macroeconomic moments in history

1. The Great Inflation between 1962 (Cuban Missile Crisis, gold run of the 70s, end of gold standard) and 1980s (end of cold war) + (highest point of dxy in history) + (recession)

2. Another dotcom bubble brewing trigering a burst by a false flag attack like 911, (think 1997, think a president dies, think a small nuclear blast is detonated)

3. The roaring 20s after a war in the middle east (similar to WW1), followed by a pandemic (think 2020), followed by a recession (probably already priced in), followed by a period of hyperinflation in 23, followed by an explosive roaring 20s preceding a great depression anywhere between 2026 and 2029 before a welcome to 2030 wef scenario.

All three scenarios have one goal in common, to introduce digital currencies this decade while gradually outlawing cash by 2030.

We see countries already introducing x-road models, legal frameworks, aligning transportation and many other sectors to a digital biometric ID, while testing covid blockchain passports, and at the same time we've witnessed under the radar blockchain companies slowly building up partnerships and laying low for now. OMFIF was very revealing, so were a few banks that decided to partner with Ripple, now it's a waiting game.

What will the future hold, will Saudi Arabia trigger a dollar collapse? Will Crypto get regulated? Will promising projects survive? Will Algorand become the Naga 2.0, or will it finally catch up to other alts that had a run in the last 2 years?

A lot of uncertainty and fear still remains, but a contrarian suprise move could leave 2018 enthusiasts and doomsayers behind.

Too soon to tell, but be on the lookout, this could be a 1997 scenario.

Nov 4, 2022

Note

I think there are 3 scenarios,

First one this shitcoin completes a Bearish crab harmonic pattern and then dies.

Second one, entire space will get regulated and pets dotcom 2.0 dies along with Netscape 2.0 (as featured on time magazine, yeah I'm talking about doge and ethereum), so we're in 1998

Third one, we're in for a long multi year bear market, people are going to give up when fed announces rates will be left up there for years to come, we're suddenly back to a mini 1970s, gold fever is over, prepare to see new financial standard as CBDCs are launched around the world while Bitcoin is left in the gut.