AUD / USD - Trend is our friend - SHORT
Updated
I got into this trade May 23rd @0.7568 and it's been hovering around 0.75600 just below the point of control and trying to break the previous resistance @0.76 and it's bounced around the 200 moving average.
On 4h divergence is present the whole time the bulls have pushed higher, therefore reducing volume, their heart is just not in it. They've now failed to break the high and we've had a serious attempt by the bears to push past 0.75580, I'm now expecting a pullback and the bears to try the second move.
Stops @0.762
Target @0.74
On 4h divergence is present the whole time the bulls have pushed higher, therefore reducing volume, their heart is just not in it. They've now failed to break the high and we've had a serious attempt by the bears to push past 0.75580, I'm now expecting a pullback and the bears to try the second move.
Stops @0.762
Target @0.74
Trade active
Looking at the 1h weighted average, the Aussie has finally started to flatten out it's rate of ascent and the US$ has turned up against all other currencies, but we have a long way to go for it an obvious bear, but the trend is in our favour, we're at major area of confluence and it's rejecting the moving average @0.757 Note
What a beautiful move to the downside overnight as we broke 0.755, we're bearish today and I'm expecting to see this pair down at 0.75 by the end of today, but my preference is to be testing 0.748 before the US open. A week of patience and we're now in profit. Note
My nicely profitable trade is now at breakeven for NFPNote
See the Algo's and buy orders bounce off the moving average, now the real traders will sell it back down to test 0.75180, well that's the plan anywayNote
US PMI's are due out at 3, the market needs to find it levels after the lost reports, if we get a positive PMI, this will go lower and then test out the low, if not, it may pullback to the top. Who knows the future. Big picture, this is why we're bouncing around these levels.
Note
I'm off out for coffee and cake with my good lady, speak in a few hours.Note
Despite a good PMI report, the Aussie dollar has rocketed to the upside against the US$, we're in this very narrow channel and the bulls have used the previous structure as support to get back up to 0.76.My trade is now set to break even; if we start to go that high, my trade will close and I will reassess the position, if it carries on down to the low of the channel today, I will take my profits there around 0.75145 to reduce my risks for the weekend.
Trade closed: stop reached
Trade closed at break even, this was a good profitable trade that completely reversed, total surprise to me, trading is never the same.Note
Today will be one of those days when trades are trying to find their levels, break levels and support new trends, you can see this in the aggressive moves happening very quickly. It's incredibly important you stay patient for an entry, don't enter to just be in the market and if you've got a trade on a long-term, swing trade, be prepared to see larger sideways movements and therefore don't sit and watch them, don't enter with anything less than a 15m timeframe and preferable a 1h.
The Aussie is the strongest currency today.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.