Rising wedge at multi-month top teases AUDUSD bears

Jan 6, 2021

AUD/USD teases a 33-month high around 0.7780 inside a bearish chart pattern as global markets await Georgia’s Senate runoff. Although Democrats are likely to snatch Republicans’ control over the upper US House, the thin majority and odds of President Trump’s likely plot to defy the results can probe the bulls. As a result, the AUDUSD is knocking the multi-month top, refreshed recently, amid US dollar weakness. However, surprises for Democrats won’t be taken lightly as Trump will use all he can to stop losing GOP control over the Senate, which in turn can trigger the US dollar’s corrective recovery from the lowest since April 2018. In that case, AUDUSD traders should watch for confirmation of the bearish chart pattern, by a sustained break below 0.7675 support, to eye the theoretical target near 0.7300. During the fall, an ascending trend line from early November, at 0.7550 now, followed by a 200-SMA level of 0.7490, will be important to watch.

Meanwhile, risk-positive news from Georgia will initially eye the 0.7800 round-figures before directing the AUDUSD bulls to April 2018 top near 0.7810. Should Joe Biden and Company announces readiness to distribute $2,000 paychecks, the much-awaited stimulus, the early 2018 peaks near 0.7900 and 0.8130 may return to the chart. In doing so, the 0.8000 psychological magnet will be the key to watch. Overall, AUDUSD remains strong but the bearish chart pattern at the multi-month top can derail the bull’s confidence if confirmed.