PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 28 NOV 2022
On Friday 25th, I had a bearish call for Bank nifty - read here. Did it work out as expected - ABSOLUTELY NO !
Refer the chart below, bank nifty opened gap down at 42757 and for a moment i thought its all going as per the plan. But the first candle itself was pretty strong and by 09.30 BN had closed down the gap. The period from 09.35 to 11.25 the moves were quite normal.
But the move from 11.30 to 12.25 was pretty strong and convincing - all the candles green, all of them with good body and all of them forming a beautiful step like pattern.
If we look at the chart exactly at 12.25, as and when it happened the bearishness was wiped out and BN was looking to take out the swing high of the last day. This positivity may have resulted from the moves of RELIANCE (up 3.44%).
Anyways from 12.55 to the end of the day BN fell, the final close at 42983 exactly same as the previous day's close.
I am more bearish now, the charts showed it on friday - the options volume shows it today.
48000 CE was traded for 52.28 lakhs qty, a strike thats 11.6% away and 3 days to expiry. This shows the intensity of call writing.
Similarly 45000 CE for 1.43 crore qty, 44000 CE for 2.58 crore qty, 43000 CE 11.04 crore qty.
The option sellers are planning to have an expiry below 43000 this thursday - whether that will hold i do not know. But will tomorrow be bearish - most likely !
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Of the bank nifty components
HDFC bank started gap down and was pretty much in a narrow range
ICICI started flat and rallied, a small leg of dip 13.45 to 14.15 but ended strong
SBI fell in the early trade, moves from 14.50 to 15.15 unexplainable and that too with good volume
AXIS trended positively but the fall from 13.45 almost took it back to where it started, final closing is positive
Kotak - started mega gap down and recovered in the first candle, a mega green candle. Swung up and down and finally closed flattish
IndusInd was trading softly earlier in the day, but by 11.40 it gained strength went up till 13.05 and then fell quite strongly. Recovered and then ended positively.
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15mts is not showing bullishness now - its either range trade or an interim top formation which might show further fall.
1hr is still bullish, nearest support is quite deep below - we cannot go short overnight as its still too early.
Refer the chart below, bank nifty opened gap down at 42757 and for a moment i thought its all going as per the plan. But the first candle itself was pretty strong and by 09.30 BN had closed down the gap. The period from 09.35 to 11.25 the moves were quite normal.
But the move from 11.30 to 12.25 was pretty strong and convincing - all the candles green, all of them with good body and all of them forming a beautiful step like pattern.
If we look at the chart exactly at 12.25, as and when it happened the bearishness was wiped out and BN was looking to take out the swing high of the last day. This positivity may have resulted from the moves of RELIANCE (up 3.44%).
Anyways from 12.55 to the end of the day BN fell, the final close at 42983 exactly same as the previous day's close.
I am more bearish now, the charts showed it on friday - the options volume shows it today.
48000 CE was traded for 52.28 lakhs qty, a strike thats 11.6% away and 3 days to expiry. This shows the intensity of call writing.
Similarly 45000 CE for 1.43 crore qty, 44000 CE for 2.58 crore qty, 43000 CE 11.04 crore qty.
The option sellers are planning to have an expiry below 43000 this thursday - whether that will hold i do not know. But will tomorrow be bearish - most likely !
---
Of the bank nifty components
HDFC bank started gap down and was pretty much in a narrow range
ICICI started flat and rallied, a small leg of dip 13.45 to 14.15 but ended strong
SBI fell in the early trade, moves from 14.50 to 15.15 unexplainable and that too with good volume
AXIS trended positively but the fall from 13.45 almost took it back to where it started, final closing is positive
Kotak - started mega gap down and recovered in the first candle, a mega green candle. Swung up and down and finally closed flattish
IndusInd was trading softly earlier in the day, but by 11.40 it gained strength went up till 13.05 and then fell quite strongly. Recovered and then ended positively.
---
15mts is not showing bullishness now - its either range trade or an interim top formation which might show further fall.
1hr is still bullish, nearest support is quite deep below - we cannot go short overnight as its still too early.
