Bank Nifty Today - 03 NOV 2022 Analysis + Comparison with S&P500
Bank nifty moved today quite contradictory to the global moves. Frankly what is happening to India's banks - is there so much positivity to bury the global macros ?
S&P500 down 2.5&, Nasdaq100 down 3.39% and our bank nifty up 0.37% today
Just look the opening 4 candles. Gap down opening at 40873 very near to the support level of 40867 - hits the resistance level of 41314 by 9.35 - who would believe it ? 494pts move in 20mts with great momentum.
I am not worried with bank nifty moving up like that - but on a day where the global cues were very negative - quite impossible.
From 9.35 to close BN traded in and around the SR line with minimal volatility. Cannot even believe the India VIX came down by 4.3% today. Is there a real fundamental shift in India & its growth story - or are these some pump & dump scheme operated to loot the retail traders & investors? Who am I to ask these….?
The candle at 10.10 looked interesting - it broke through the resistance and then a fall back to the level over the next 11 candles. And then another pump at 11.10, over the next 2 candles we would have got the impression that BN may breakout - but the 41455 resistance line came into play.
Then we had a gradual fall below the SR line, but notice the price action at 13.10 (strong green candle breaking the resistance again). Anyways the final close was at 41304 just below the SR of 41314.
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6 major banks, most of them showing strength today
HDFC bank closed in red, but the chart pattern is not negative
ICICI closed in green with flattish pattern
SBI closed well in green with bullish pattern
AXIS bank showed strong breakout in the morning to give it all back later - closed flat
Kotak was trading below yesterday's close with a bearish bias
IndusInd bank showing bullish pattern.
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Since today was expiry - there were many trade possibilities that could have been planned.
BN stayed within the support & resistance zone eventhough it felt it would be a breakout today. All OTM calls & puts have gone to zero - if you would have written them, you could have made money. However we can all say that with hindsight - cannot engineer the outcome in advance.
I am of the personal opinion that most of the traders would have hit their stop loss due to the mammoth move in the opening 20mts. Due to the overnight macros - most of them would have thought the bias will be bearish today.
I noticed that the premiums on the call side were very minimal signaling the bank nifty might not breakout, but was not courageous enough to short them today after seeing the open.
I am researching into deploying ratio spreads into weekly expiry to bring in exponential returns with a limited risk profile - may be it will take 6 to 9 months to get some clarity (i dont prefer to back test, i instead journal the trades henceforth - something like a forward test)
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SPX & Banknifty has diverged more today - the gap is now in excess of 22%. Presently the ES1 futures are showing a drop of 1% - so may be the US market will be in red today also.
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15mts showing sideways market
1hr also showing sideways market
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Bank nifty support & resistance levels
s1: 40867, s2: 40691
r1: 41312, r2: 41455
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PS: Read the standard disclaimer at: bit. ly/3Nm3RER
S&P500 down 2.5&, Nasdaq100 down 3.39% and our bank nifty up 0.37% today
Just look the opening 4 candles. Gap down opening at 40873 very near to the support level of 40867 - hits the resistance level of 41314 by 9.35 - who would believe it ? 494pts move in 20mts with great momentum.
I am not worried with bank nifty moving up like that - but on a day where the global cues were very negative - quite impossible.
From 9.35 to close BN traded in and around the SR line with minimal volatility. Cannot even believe the India VIX came down by 4.3% today. Is there a real fundamental shift in India & its growth story - or are these some pump & dump scheme operated to loot the retail traders & investors? Who am I to ask these….?
The candle at 10.10 looked interesting - it broke through the resistance and then a fall back to the level over the next 11 candles. And then another pump at 11.10, over the next 2 candles we would have got the impression that BN may breakout - but the 41455 resistance line came into play.
Then we had a gradual fall below the SR line, but notice the price action at 13.10 (strong green candle breaking the resistance again). Anyways the final close was at 41304 just below the SR of 41314.
---
6 major banks, most of them showing strength today
HDFC bank closed in red, but the chart pattern is not negative
ICICI closed in green with flattish pattern
SBI closed well in green with bullish pattern
AXIS bank showed strong breakout in the morning to give it all back later - closed flat
Kotak was trading below yesterday's close with a bearish bias
IndusInd bank showing bullish pattern.
---
Since today was expiry - there were many trade possibilities that could have been planned.
BN stayed within the support & resistance zone eventhough it felt it would be a breakout today. All OTM calls & puts have gone to zero - if you would have written them, you could have made money. However we can all say that with hindsight - cannot engineer the outcome in advance.
I am of the personal opinion that most of the traders would have hit their stop loss due to the mammoth move in the opening 20mts. Due to the overnight macros - most of them would have thought the bias will be bearish today.
I noticed that the premiums on the call side were very minimal signaling the bank nifty might not breakout, but was not courageous enough to short them today after seeing the open.
I am researching into deploying ratio spreads into weekly expiry to bring in exponential returns with a limited risk profile - may be it will take 6 to 9 months to get some clarity (i dont prefer to back test, i instead journal the trades henceforth - something like a forward test)
---
SPX & Banknifty has diverged more today - the gap is now in excess of 22%. Presently the ES1 futures are showing a drop of 1% - so may be the US market will be in red today also.
---
15mts showing sideways market
1hr also showing sideways market
---
Bank nifty support & resistance levels
s1: 40867, s2: 40691
r1: 41312, r2: 41455
---
PS: Read the standard disclaimer at: bit. ly/3Nm3RER
