31 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty Monthly,Weekly,Daily Expiry
BankNifty Monthly Analysis
In the Aug month, Banknifty is down an astounding 3.73% ~ 1708pts vs 1.97% of Nifty50. Again telling the tale in advance, Banknfity has proved to be the real leading indicator during trending phases & reversals. On 24th and 30th Banknifty tried to exit the bearish hold but faced rejections. And unlike Nifty, BankNifty does not have a bearish channel - it has to fall a lot more to fit into one.
BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today BankNifty has fallen 406pts ~ 0.91%. Most importantly they got the closing right at the support/resistance zone of 44068.
BankNifty Daily Analysis
Today’s price action gave some boost to the option prices. You might have noticed almost all the OTM strikes had a swing range much higher than the closing price of yesterday. Imagine how a far OTM could have a higher pricing even when the markets are not moving against it.
The fall of 505pts ~ 1.14% between the HOD to the LOD made perfect sense, but the last 30mts pull back (encircled in blue) esp. by HDFCBK made no sense at all. The volumes were also amazing and looked like some weight rebalancing. This pull back of close to 180pts ensured banknifty is not technically in a bearish zone but a neutral one.
We did highlight the double top pattern formed on the 1hr chart yesterday, but its true impact is yet to be felt. Since BankNifty managed to close right at the support level of 44068, I dont wish to start the day tomorrow on the bearish side. First I need to get validation that the buying seen on HDFCBK was some positional or rebalancing one and not fresh longs. You definitely know by now how even HDFCBK single handedly can influence this index.
I wish to go with a neutral view tomorrow and wait for the market to give its next clue.
In the Aug month, Banknifty is down an astounding 3.73% ~ 1708pts vs 1.97% of Nifty50. Again telling the tale in advance, Banknfity has proved to be the real leading indicator during trending phases & reversals. On 24th and 30th Banknifty tried to exit the bearish hold but faced rejections. And unlike Nifty, BankNifty does not have a bearish channel - it has to fall a lot more to fit into one.
BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today BankNifty has fallen 406pts ~ 0.91%. Most importantly they got the closing right at the support/resistance zone of 44068.
BankNifty Daily Analysis
Today’s price action gave some boost to the option prices. You might have noticed almost all the OTM strikes had a swing range much higher than the closing price of yesterday. Imagine how a far OTM could have a higher pricing even when the markets are not moving against it.
The fall of 505pts ~ 1.14% between the HOD to the LOD made perfect sense, but the last 30mts pull back (encircled in blue) esp. by HDFCBK made no sense at all. The volumes were also amazing and looked like some weight rebalancing. This pull back of close to 180pts ensured banknifty is not technically in a bearish zone but a neutral one.
We did highlight the double top pattern formed on the 1hr chart yesterday, but its true impact is yet to be felt. Since BankNifty managed to close right at the support level of 44068, I dont wish to start the day tomorrow on the bearish side. First I need to get validation that the buying seen on HDFCBK was some positional or rebalancing one and not fresh longs. You definitely know by now how even HDFCBK single handedly can influence this index.
I wish to go with a neutral view tomorrow and wait for the market to give its next clue.
