25 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Banknifty - 60% neutral 40% bearish 🐻
Banknifty made a strange pattern today, opening mega gap down and then breaking the support of 44068 by 10.30. And then climbing back to the open levels. From there it stayed in that tight range for the rest of the day.
From an intraday fall of 1.07% it is quite commendable that banknifty was able to recover and close only 0.59% lower. I was not quite sure why banks weren't falling like other non financial stocks. Finally we have closed above the support zone of 44068 which is quite good for the bulls. The options flow was also indicating no major swings today, the premiums of the OTMs were like an ordinary Friday. I was hoping to make a good fortune today - but the premiums did not help.
On the 1hr TF we have 2 island formations, the gap-up caused yesterday’s island and the gap-down caused today’s. Structurally BankNifty has not broken the bullish pattern from the breakout of falling wedge.
Now all eyes are on the support level of 44068, if it holds then banknifty will resume its upward journey with much more vigor. If the support falls - then banknifty will follow nifty’s downtrend and overtake it in the coming week itself.
I wish to go 60% neutral and 40% bearish for 28th Aug. If the support falls in the first hour of trade on Monday, I prefer to go all-in for shorts. Only if we take out the 44500 via gap-up then we need to think about a long position.
From an intraday fall of 1.07% it is quite commendable that banknifty was able to recover and close only 0.59% lower. I was not quite sure why banks weren't falling like other non financial stocks. Finally we have closed above the support zone of 44068 which is quite good for the bulls. The options flow was also indicating no major swings today, the premiums of the OTMs were like an ordinary Friday. I was hoping to make a good fortune today - but the premiums did not help.
On the 1hr TF we have 2 island formations, the gap-up caused yesterday’s island and the gap-down caused today’s. Structurally BankNifty has not broken the bullish pattern from the breakout of falling wedge.
Now all eyes are on the support level of 44068, if it holds then banknifty will resume its upward journey with much more vigor. If the support falls - then banknifty will follow nifty’s downtrend and overtake it in the coming week itself.
I wish to go 60% neutral and 40% bearish for 28th Aug. If the support falls in the first hour of trade on Monday, I prefer to go all-in for shorts. Only if we take out the 44500 via gap-up then we need to think about a long position.
