Bank Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook – 18.07.2020

Price Action Analysis:
After four consecutive weeks of bullish close, for the first time price broke the low of the previous week and a formed a weekly down bar to close at 21967. The previous week price bar pattern had resulted into a bearish pin bar.With a bearish pin bar we had formed a bearish expectation. Price breaking the low of the pin bar confirmed this bearish expectation.
A down bar after an up bar has formed a swing high on weekly time frame. The current week price bar structure, a down bar is indeed a bearish bar in nature but, with a close in the middle one third of the range. The size of the body is lesser than that of the wick. Even though the weekly bar is a down bar with a lower high and lower low, the characteristics of body, wick and close indicate weak bearishness which is a due lack of strength by sellers as a result of reduced commitment. With a down bar we form a bearish expectation keeping in mind the sentiment and extent of participation by market participants. Price breaking the low of the down bar confirms this bearish expectation and price not breaking the low instead surpassing the high of down bar invalidates the bearish expectation.
On a daily time frame after a valid trend line break price moved lower and found support in the previous horizontal support zone of 20926 and formed a higher swing low at 21027 which is near the mid line of the rising channel. Price neither breaking the recent swing high at 23081 nor the recent swing low at 21027 can result into a price range. The current weekly volatility remains unchanged at 5.5 compared to the previous week volatility of 5.5. The probable weekly returns for the upcoming week is of 1205 points from the weekly close, with a measured move in increments of 408 points.

Trade Plan
The key level of the existing trend is at 20926 and the critical level at 19507. The point of control of Bank Nifty Spot for the upcoming week is in the zone of 21843. Price staying above the point of control can find minor resistance in the zone of 22250 and major resistance in the zone of 22658. Price surpassing the major resistance zone can further move towards the zone of 23065 and 23473. Price staying below the point of control can find minor support in the zone of 21435 and major support in the zone of 21027. Price breaking below the major support zone can move lower towards the zone of 20620 and 20213.

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