Hi, when our markets openned today, HangSeng was up around 2.5%, USD was around Rs.69.5/$ and Brent Crude was around $62.5/ barrel. There couldn't have been better times and these ensured we openned gap-up. Then what happenned? Nifty made a high of 11802.5 (in 25 mins) and from thereon made a one-way downslide till 11625 (177 points down from high) over next 5 hours. If this doesn't show domestic weakness, what does? Nifty hit a new fresh Low but managed to close above 50 DEMA (around 11660). Bank Nifty (BNF) showed some strength. It hit slightly higher low than yesterday and higher high too. So now tomorrow, either Nifty pulls BNF DOWN or BNF pulls Nifty UP! Lets check who has better chances.
Provisional figures show FIIs and DIIs both as net sellers ( 97 Crs and 105 Crs respectively). Final figures however show marginal buying by FIIs in equities, index futures and stock futures. Let's check option chain data. Tomorrow is weekly expiry.
Total CALL OI (24 lks) in Nifty is highest at 11800 (fresh writing low at 1.6 lakhs) and Total PUT OI (12 lks) is highest at 11700. Total Call OI is much higher than total Put OI in strikes near ATM which means bears are in higher numbers than bulls. In BNF option chain, total Call OI is highest (7.8 lks) at 30800 with fresh call writing of 2.38 lks. Total Put OI is highest ( 5.3 lks) at 30300 with fresh Put writing of 2.7 lks. So BNF is slightly better than Nifty. So one can short BNF (shown on chart) and Nifty at Resitances (Nifty at 11800, SL of 50 points). If BNF breaks low of 30180 there could be freefall.
Provisional figures show FIIs and DIIs both as net sellers ( 97 Crs and 105 Crs respectively). Final figures however show marginal buying by FIIs in equities, index futures and stock futures. Let's check option chain data. Tomorrow is weekly expiry.
Total CALL OI (24 lks) in Nifty is highest at 11800 (fresh writing low at 1.6 lakhs) and Total PUT OI (12 lks) is highest at 11700. Total Call OI is much higher than total Put OI in strikes near ATM which means bears are in higher numbers than bulls. In BNF option chain, total Call OI is highest (7.8 lks) at 30800 with fresh call writing of 2.38 lks. Total Put OI is highest ( 5.3 lks) at 30300 with fresh Put writing of 2.7 lks. So BNF is slightly better than Nifty. So one can short BNF (shown on chart) and Nifty at Resitances (Nifty at 11800, SL of 50 points). If BNF breaks low of 30180 there could be freefall.