ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 18-11-21
From this week, I am starting a new weekly post series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post will be supported by a video that will talk more about the key stocks that form the indices. One of the reasons for starting this series is that there are many readers/viewers who are positional traders or investors and for them, weekly analysis of indices would be of more interest than a daily EOD analysis.
I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week.
Important - A few minutes before I started writing this post I read that Austria has declared nationwide lockdown for 20 days and Germany may also follow suit. The European markets have reacted negatively and some of the airline stocks are down almost 5%. We have a trading holiday today so our markets are likely to follow the global cues and open lower on 22 Nov.
BANK NIFTY
EOD on 4-11-21 = 39573
EOD on 12-11-21 = 38733 down 840 points or -2.13% from 4-11-21
EOD on 18-11-21 = 37976 down 840 points or -4.03% from 4-11-21
The highest level in the month = 40160 on 3-11-21
The lowest level in the month = 37748 on 18-11-21
Difference = 2412 points
Bank Nifty EOD price for 18-11-21 is just 200+ points above the Nov 21 low price.
NIFTY
EOD on 4-11-21 = 17916
EOD on 12-11-21 = 18102 up 186 points or +1.04% from 4-11-21
EOD on 18-11-21 = 17764 down 338 points or -1.88% from 4-11-21
The highest level in the month = 18210 on 15-11-21
The lowest level in the month = 17688 on 18-11-21
Difference = 522 points
Nifty EOD price for 18-11-21 is just 70+ points above the Nov 21 low price.
FII - DII DATA:
The cumulative data for Nov 21 is FII net sellers for just short of 10K Crores and DIIs Net buyers for 9.7K Crores. This is too close a gap.
Conclusion:
Considering the turmoil in the global markets on account of the Covid wave relapse fear, the path of least resistance for Bank Nifty is on the way down.
Bank Nifty has the tendency to move down sharply when in panic mode so a retest of 37000 or breach thereof may be a possibility.
FIIs have hammered the private banks already so it would be interesting to see where would they shift their focus if the selling continues in the coming week.
Nifty is better placed than Nifty as it has given a better ROI over the last several months when compared with Bank Nifty.
However, 17500 may be a possibility if Bank Nifty falls sharply to retest or break 37000.
When in panic mode, supports may have poor sustainability and resistances would be hard to overcome.
A hard battle is being fought between the FIIs and the DIIs and as of now, FIIs seem to have a minor edge.
Until our markets close above 18000, the view is bearish especially on account of the global cues. I will be happy if my view is proved wrong.
SGX Nifty closed the week ar 17678 which is almost a 100 points down from the weekly close if Nifty.
SGX Nifty indicator may not be accurate as our markets would also react to cover the lack of trading on 19-11-21.
In view of the long weekend and the SEBI ruling on additional margin for the last few sessions, I do not have any open FNO positions.
The downside may also give traders/investors a good opportunity, and that would be discussed in another post on Swing Trading Opportunities.
Reliance may react to the Aramco-related news - if it goes up, it may help Nifty stay steady.
Here is the video link:
Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets!
Happy Trading/Investing!
Umesh
19-11-21
From this week, I am starting a new weekly post series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post will be supported by a video that will talk more about the key stocks that form the indices. One of the reasons for starting this series is that there are many readers/viewers who are positional traders or investors and for them, weekly analysis of indices would be of more interest than a daily EOD analysis.
I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week.
Important - A few minutes before I started writing this post I read that Austria has declared nationwide lockdown for 20 days and Germany may also follow suit. The European markets have reacted negatively and some of the airline stocks are down almost 5%. We have a trading holiday today so our markets are likely to follow the global cues and open lower on 22 Nov.
BANK NIFTY
EOD on 4-11-21 = 39573
EOD on 12-11-21 = 38733 down 840 points or -2.13% from 4-11-21
EOD on 18-11-21 = 37976 down 840 points or -4.03% from 4-11-21
The highest level in the month = 40160 on 3-11-21
The lowest level in the month = 37748 on 18-11-21
Difference = 2412 points
Bank Nifty EOD price for 18-11-21 is just 200+ points above the Nov 21 low price.
NIFTY
EOD on 4-11-21 = 17916
EOD on 12-11-21 = 18102 up 186 points or +1.04% from 4-11-21
EOD on 18-11-21 = 17764 down 338 points or -1.88% from 4-11-21
The highest level in the month = 18210 on 15-11-21
The lowest level in the month = 17688 on 18-11-21
Difference = 522 points
Nifty EOD price for 18-11-21 is just 70+ points above the Nov 21 low price.
FII - DII DATA:
The cumulative data for Nov 21 is FII net sellers for just short of 10K Crores and DIIs Net buyers for 9.7K Crores. This is too close a gap.
Conclusion:
Considering the turmoil in the global markets on account of the Covid wave relapse fear, the path of least resistance for Bank Nifty is on the way down.
Bank Nifty has the tendency to move down sharply when in panic mode so a retest of 37000 or breach thereof may be a possibility.
FIIs have hammered the private banks already so it would be interesting to see where would they shift their focus if the selling continues in the coming week.
Nifty is better placed than Nifty as it has given a better ROI over the last several months when compared with Bank Nifty.
However, 17500 may be a possibility if Bank Nifty falls sharply to retest or break 37000.
When in panic mode, supports may have poor sustainability and resistances would be hard to overcome.
A hard battle is being fought between the FIIs and the DIIs and as of now, FIIs seem to have a minor edge.
Until our markets close above 18000, the view is bearish especially on account of the global cues. I will be happy if my view is proved wrong.
SGX Nifty closed the week ar 17678 which is almost a 100 points down from the weekly close if Nifty.
SGX Nifty indicator may not be accurate as our markets would also react to cover the lack of trading on 19-11-21.
In view of the long weekend and the SEBI ruling on additional margin for the last few sessions, I do not have any open FNO positions.
The downside may also give traders/investors a good opportunity, and that would be discussed in another post on Swing Trading Opportunities.
Reliance may react to the Aramco-related news - if it goes up, it may help Nifty stay steady.
Here is the video link:
Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets!
Happy Trading/Investing!
Umesh
19-11-21
