The New Blackberry - What's Next?
The New Blackberry. Some due diligence.
Warren Buffet says that "it's not timing the market but time in the market that makes all the difference." Of course that's probably easier for Buffet that's worth 97.6 billion than the average traders, investors, and speculators that have a slightly less robust account to work with. How should one look at Blackberry that has had an overall positive 2021 but over 2 months of a downward trend though it has had three notable uptrends.
Perhaps it is possible using the Warren principle to consider a reasonable risk/reward scenario be it bullish or bearish. It is worth considering what then is the best case and worst case scenario for the new Blackberry that has attempted to make a discernible comeback from a failed phone company into an Internet of Things/Smart Car OS, and Cyber Security company. Let's look at the bad news and the good news.
The Bad News
The bad news is that Blackberry as of closing Thursday April 1st has shaved over 2/3 of its all time highs for 2021. This has been extremely disappointing for long term investors and bullish investors that have invested in much of February onward. This has generated positive benefit for bearish investors that have now seen three short lived rallies attempting to reclaim 2021 highs all fail to sustain and continually break lower. Professional investors have given Blackberry predominantly negative review for much of 2021 after the short term 2021. rally ended in January. Bearish speculators are hoping that Blackberry is going to fall back to pre-2020 Q4 price levels. The 18.1 % dip in March 2021 has been net bearish though there has been a few good bull runs for short term traders/speculators/investors during those periods but overall has been downward. Stocks go up and down.
The Good News
Long term investors have to asks why did the price decline and not retry to the early 2021 highs on three attempted rallies? The first option is that the price simply is not justified at any level above 10-12 dollars much less in the 20s or above. Bearish speculators would state that it was merely a Reddit WSB inspired spike or "pump and dump" that combined with a spat of positive Blackberry news in Q4 2020. They would say that it is "buy the rumor and sell the news." They would cite that the early tech rally of Q1 2021 pushed the price to unnatural and unjustifiable levels. The second option is that the price is simply making new high and new lows and it attempts to define a new price and possible justification for a further bullish price point in either the near or long term. It is fair to say that like much of the tech market has been in a bearish cycle for much of late Q1 2021. Bears would note that the entire tech sector of the US market has not had any sustained positive price action for much of February and March. The third option is that the price is simply a reflection of a general rotation out of tech sectors into other sectors.
Also for good news, in late 2020 Blackberry announced partnerships with Amazon in the USA and Baidu in China have not yet been monetized. Both companies are major players in their respective countries. Investing is always speculative on future growth but Blackberry has overall increased over prior years and John Chen has recently began a public rebranding of Blackberry. A several million dollar ad in the New York Times before mixed earnings is a bullish sign that Blackberry is anticipating growth. Blackberry also has entered negotiations for selling off part of its massive patent licence to a major North American entity. Many are speculating that this is Facebook which it has been in negotiations through a court settlement over Facebook infringing over Blackberry patents. It has won countless awards for both its operating system and security suite based of their patented artificial intelligence driven security. The Biden administrations focus on renewable energy, smart technology, and security should be good for Blackberry that has recently redesigned its website and gone fully into focusing on the auto sector using its QNX Operating System for their smart cars. Chen has also had a great track run as CEO of previous successful companies that have had turnaround stories. Those companies have had very impressive increases for investors. BBs investors conference call noted that two new automakers have committed to using QNX. Those are Honda and Toyota. None of these new partnerships have been monetized.
Let's look at some numbers.
In 2021 as of April 1, 2021, there are currently 561 million investors compared to 614 million in 2020. The increase of 53 million new investors is impressive. A majority of 70% bought in between 10.67 and 24.74. This anecdotal evidence believes that a large majority of investors believe that the price is going to at sometime going to go up sometime in the future be it 2021 or later. Perhaps these investors are in the Warren Buffett camp and if Blackberry does go up then they may have timed their entry poorly but will be rewarded for their time in the market.
So what about the charts?
Blackberry could fall all the way back to 6.22. The upside goes up 10.17 and then has three levels of upward resistance before heading back to the upper teens and mid-20s that it needs to break to get back to the mid-20s. The MacD indicator has had only one recent positive run between March 12-18. There has been a sustained sell off pushing the price down to the upper 8s at 8.60. It seems as if Blackberry may be entering a fourth upward trend as the sell pressure should be giving a way to a buy cycle and there should be an accompanying price increase. The weekly levels show a low of 8.24 and that there have been 3 downward trend candles. This may indicate a positive trend is about to emerge on a weekly cycle.
Some believe that Blackberry is soon about to enter a new and continuous price upgrade. Historical levels of 50-150 plus are not unreasonable given that Blackberry very well may prove that it deserves a seat at the table for its new focuses in software and security. I personally am very bullish over the future of Blackberry and I am a long term investor.
Possible bullish scenarios include another over-all uptrend in Blackberry especially as it monetizes new partnerships and a cyclical return to technology. Price action moving upward also tend to coincide with both investor optimism and general market optimism. Only time will tell if that is accurate. Who knows maybe Buffet's Canadian counterpart in Prem Watsa who sits on Blackberry's board and is a major investor will prove that Warren's maximum with Blackberry is right. There is also a possibility that another run occurs when institutional investors are ready to move the price upwards and that this down cycle turns in to another bear trap. If so the question is where does the price go next? Long term investors believe upwards of $24 dollars plus.
Not financial advice. For entertainment and educational purposes only.
Want to connect? Comment below or join our new Reddit group /r/apesinvest.
Warren Buffet says that "it's not timing the market but time in the market that makes all the difference." Of course that's probably easier for Buffet that's worth 97.6 billion than the average traders, investors, and speculators that have a slightly less robust account to work with. How should one look at Blackberry that has had an overall positive 2021 but over 2 months of a downward trend though it has had three notable uptrends.
Perhaps it is possible using the Warren principle to consider a reasonable risk/reward scenario be it bullish or bearish. It is worth considering what then is the best case and worst case scenario for the new Blackberry that has attempted to make a discernible comeback from a failed phone company into an Internet of Things/Smart Car OS, and Cyber Security company. Let's look at the bad news and the good news.
The Bad News
The bad news is that Blackberry as of closing Thursday April 1st has shaved over 2/3 of its all time highs for 2021. This has been extremely disappointing for long term investors and bullish investors that have invested in much of February onward. This has generated positive benefit for bearish investors that have now seen three short lived rallies attempting to reclaim 2021 highs all fail to sustain and continually break lower. Professional investors have given Blackberry predominantly negative review for much of 2021 after the short term 2021. rally ended in January. Bearish speculators are hoping that Blackberry is going to fall back to pre-2020 Q4 price levels. The 18.1 % dip in March 2021 has been net bearish though there has been a few good bull runs for short term traders/speculators/investors during those periods but overall has been downward. Stocks go up and down.
The Good News
Long term investors have to asks why did the price decline and not retry to the early 2021 highs on three attempted rallies? The first option is that the price simply is not justified at any level above 10-12 dollars much less in the 20s or above. Bearish speculators would state that it was merely a Reddit WSB inspired spike or "pump and dump" that combined with a spat of positive Blackberry news in Q4 2020. They would say that it is "buy the rumor and sell the news." They would cite that the early tech rally of Q1 2021 pushed the price to unnatural and unjustifiable levels. The second option is that the price is simply making new high and new lows and it attempts to define a new price and possible justification for a further bullish price point in either the near or long term. It is fair to say that like much of the tech market has been in a bearish cycle for much of late Q1 2021. Bears would note that the entire tech sector of the US market has not had any sustained positive price action for much of February and March. The third option is that the price is simply a reflection of a general rotation out of tech sectors into other sectors.
Also for good news, in late 2020 Blackberry announced partnerships with Amazon in the USA and Baidu in China have not yet been monetized. Both companies are major players in their respective countries. Investing is always speculative on future growth but Blackberry has overall increased over prior years and John Chen has recently began a public rebranding of Blackberry. A several million dollar ad in the New York Times before mixed earnings is a bullish sign that Blackberry is anticipating growth. Blackberry also has entered negotiations for selling off part of its massive patent licence to a major North American entity. Many are speculating that this is Facebook which it has been in negotiations through a court settlement over Facebook infringing over Blackberry patents. It has won countless awards for both its operating system and security suite based of their patented artificial intelligence driven security. The Biden administrations focus on renewable energy, smart technology, and security should be good for Blackberry that has recently redesigned its website and gone fully into focusing on the auto sector using its QNX Operating System for their smart cars. Chen has also had a great track run as CEO of previous successful companies that have had turnaround stories. Those companies have had very impressive increases for investors. BBs investors conference call noted that two new automakers have committed to using QNX. Those are Honda and Toyota. None of these new partnerships have been monetized.
Let's look at some numbers.
In 2021 as of April 1, 2021, there are currently 561 million investors compared to 614 million in 2020. The increase of 53 million new investors is impressive. A majority of 70% bought in between 10.67 and 24.74. This anecdotal evidence believes that a large majority of investors believe that the price is going to at sometime going to go up sometime in the future be it 2021 or later. Perhaps these investors are in the Warren Buffett camp and if Blackberry does go up then they may have timed their entry poorly but will be rewarded for their time in the market.
So what about the charts?
Blackberry could fall all the way back to 6.22. The upside goes up 10.17 and then has three levels of upward resistance before heading back to the upper teens and mid-20s that it needs to break to get back to the mid-20s. The MacD indicator has had only one recent positive run between March 12-18. There has been a sustained sell off pushing the price down to the upper 8s at 8.60. It seems as if Blackberry may be entering a fourth upward trend as the sell pressure should be giving a way to a buy cycle and there should be an accompanying price increase. The weekly levels show a low of 8.24 and that there have been 3 downward trend candles. This may indicate a positive trend is about to emerge on a weekly cycle.
Some believe that Blackberry is soon about to enter a new and continuous price upgrade. Historical levels of 50-150 plus are not unreasonable given that Blackberry very well may prove that it deserves a seat at the table for its new focuses in software and security. I personally am very bullish over the future of Blackberry and I am a long term investor.
Possible bullish scenarios include another over-all uptrend in Blackberry especially as it monetizes new partnerships and a cyclical return to technology. Price action moving upward also tend to coincide with both investor optimism and general market optimism. Only time will tell if that is accurate. Who knows maybe Buffet's Canadian counterpart in Prem Watsa who sits on Blackberry's board and is a major investor will prove that Warren's maximum with Blackberry is right. There is also a possibility that another run occurs when institutional investors are ready to move the price upwards and that this down cycle turns in to another bear trap. If so the question is where does the price go next? Long term investors believe upwards of $24 dollars plus.
Not financial advice. For entertainment and educational purposes only.
Want to connect? Comment below or join our new Reddit group /r/apesinvest.
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