Sidestepping the upcoming CT move in BTC/USD
Updated
Our criteria outlined in the last post has been reached with BTC making a new high above 4470.
So, just to recap, we're using a new counting technique called M4 which claims that trends turn on counts that are multiples of the number 4.
So, at the daily time frame we have, with this new high, entered a possible end zone for a 12 point count - which is a valid end area because 12 is a multiple of 4. So at the daily scale we are counting from the 2975 low and we are attempting to locate the next counter trend movement which we are expecting will be comparable to the Sept. 18-20 CT (counter trend) which gave up over $600.
Now that our daily goal has been meet, we move down to the 4 hour time frame (rightmost chart) and begin the count all over from the 4150 low - which is the last wave of our daily movement.
The count here stands at 10 - so we're looking for one more pullback and new high to create points 11 and 12 and top out. If this pans out, then we will begin a candle following strategy once we're in the 4H end zone to exit the position. All we're doing is refining our exit by repeating the count analysis at a lower level or time frame.
This will allow us, hopefully, to miss most of the CT move and buy back in at a lower level - since we're still expecting another daily wave upward.
What if we get a 16 point count at the 4H level instead of the 12p we're expecting? This could very well happen, but hopefully price movement will clue us in before our exit.
I can't name price levels at this point, we just have to wait and see where these events occur and what that is telling us count-wise.
So, just to recap, we're using a new counting technique called M4 which claims that trends turn on counts that are multiples of the number 4.
So, at the daily time frame we have, with this new high, entered a possible end zone for a 12 point count - which is a valid end area because 12 is a multiple of 4. So at the daily scale we are counting from the 2975 low and we are attempting to locate the next counter trend movement which we are expecting will be comparable to the Sept. 18-20 CT (counter trend) which gave up over $600.
Now that our daily goal has been meet, we move down to the 4 hour time frame (rightmost chart) and begin the count all over from the 4150 low - which is the last wave of our daily movement.
The count here stands at 10 - so we're looking for one more pullback and new high to create points 11 and 12 and top out. If this pans out, then we will begin a candle following strategy once we're in the 4H end zone to exit the position. All we're doing is refining our exit by repeating the count analysis at a lower level or time frame.
This will allow us, hopefully, to miss most of the CT move and buy back in at a lower level - since we're still expecting another daily wave upward.
What if we get a 16 point count at the 4H level instead of the 12p we're expecting? This could very well happen, but hopefully price movement will clue us in before our exit.
I can't name price levels at this point, we just have to wait and see where these events occur and what that is telling us count-wise.
Note
Made a mistake in the 4H chart - started the count at the wrong location. Point 8 should be sitting right now at 4735 with our exit window for a long position at the current high - 4875.Note
Looks like we're getting new events. If it holds, the 4760 candle tail will be point 10 in our count... so this could end up being a 12 point instead of an 8 point count.Trade closed: target reached
Ok, looks like my original count was right after all... If you expand the chart using the 'play' button you'll see points 11 and 12 near the 4600 level, then 13-16 near the top w/ point 16 hitting 4760 on the tail. With the rather drastic 4H candle it seems to be good proof for a beginning of a new downward count. I exited earlier today at 4885.
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