Why am I revising my recent Big Picture WaveCount ?
1. The significant start of the Bitcoin run-up was close to the Spring Equinox (24 March 2016, low $920) and this should be start of the Wave Count, prior to that it was relatively sideways action.
2. My previous Wave 4 Count was not deep enough. The current Wave 4 is more realistic.
3. When Wave 2 corrective wave is shallow then Wave 4 corrective should be sharp which it was.
4. I believe medium to long term we are still in a Strong Bull run with Bitcoin set to make significant price gains possibly in the region of $11,000 (time frame I don't know).
It appears to respect the Fib numbers $1,000, $2,000, $3,000, $5,000, $8,000, $11,000 (something for you to see in hindsight which will help become your foresight)
My only discomfort is that the EW Rules state that Wave4 cannot break Wave1. On the , it did break it by $8 (can we turn a blind eye? that's your decision)
Note: if Wave 1 (daily) does get broken than this invalidates this Wave Count and we start again our Wave Count.
We, therefore, are in Wave 4 and this is unconfirmed as being complete. After it has completed, we move into Wave 5 before a correction. After Wave 4 is finished, is set to go up again but it must break all these resistances I identified (see link below) if it is to revisit $5,000:
In the very short term, I have posted a short trade, as I see it attempting to retest Wave 4 level.
It's important that as a Professional I show you what I see and revise my Analysis when I believe it is an incorrect read of the Market.
Remember, our goal as traders and Investors is to be IN TUNE with the RHYTHM of the Market this is HOW WE MAKE MONEY and we put aside our egos (the two cannot coexist).
Let's see if this is more representative of the POSITION IN THE MARKET, PRICE ACTION alone will determine the TRUE PATH.
There you have it. Hope this update helps.
Sean Vengan, Professional Trader and Trading Educator
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We both know we must be quick to act when we see a new perspective. I've had too many "deer in the headlights" frozen moments in my trading hee hee =)
We just play the Numbers.
We are in Wave 5 and within Wave 5 we are in Wave 3