In my initial post I correctly predicted short from $8400 all the way down to anywhere in $3000 (worst case scenario) - 5000 (best case scenario). You can find that post here:
During the breakdown I underestimated the sell pressure and did not expect to reach $3600 without any real correction upwards.
However, at the moment BTC is forming a rising wedge with a steeper lower line and a less steep upper line. 75% of the times these structure break down and resume downtrend. Imho it is very likely that it will break down since volume is not that high for a bullish wave up. RSI on the 4hr chart is reaching oversold condition, while on smaller timeframes a bearish divergence has formed. I was expecting a correction yesterday down to $3900 which has not happened, it kept increasing. To me this was not healthy, hence why I believe this is a bearish wedge.
Finally, on the weekly chart BTC still has not touched the 200 ma, which I expect at this point to test. RSI on the weekly reached 30 but did not dipped below, again, I expect to briefly dip below 30.
During the breakdown I underestimated the sell pressure and did not expect to reach $3600 without any real correction upwards.
However, at the moment BTC is forming a rising wedge with a steeper lower line and a less steep upper line. 75% of the times these structure break down and resume downtrend. Imho it is very likely that it will break down since volume is not that high for a bullish wave up. RSI on the 4hr chart is reaching oversold condition, while on smaller timeframes a bearish divergence has formed. I was expecting a correction yesterday down to $3900 which has not happened, it kept increasing. To me this was not healthy, hence why I believe this is a bearish wedge.
Finally, on the weekly chart BTC still has not touched the 200 ma, which I expect at this point to test. RSI on the weekly reached 30 but did not dipped below, again, I expect to briefly dip below 30.
Comment:
looks like bulls are putting up a real fight. They did the same yesterday with $4200 but it eventually broke.
Comment:
Bulls made a real push and were able to prevent a breach of support. However I think it’s still headed down. Head and Shoulder failed but BTC is caught between the falling trendline from $6200 and the rising trendline from $3500, so the decision will be made soon maybe even this weekend.
Comment:
Idea is still valid. Bear flag in the making right now and odds are high that it will break. Target of the bear flag is around $3776. However, I am seeing both on the daily a bearish setup down to $3000 (next few days or week). I am seeing another bearish setup on the weekly chart that looks very dark and gloomy with target $1800-$2000 but hopefully the 200-ma on the weekly chart provides a good support and bounce. On the weekly chart only closing this week over $5000 can invalidate the bearish setup (to create a morning star pattern). All in all, I believe the $3165 (200-ma as of today) to be a hard support. Could also be a flash crash to touch and bounce this support.
Comment:
Bear flag reached its target and it's struggling to maintain $3780 (I called for the drop at $3776). Imho now it can just stay between $3850 and $3720 for the rest of the day, but on bigger timeframes we are still bearish and still headed toward the 200 sma at $3165.
Comment:
Price is currently moving in a potential bearish pennant with a target of $3620. If it is truly a bearish pennant then the resolution should come today within 3-4 hours.
Comment:
Pennant has been invalidated however it's still in a bearish setup and headed to retest lows of $3500.
Comment:
Target of $3165 is almost reached. Should be reached within today. There is a chance that it will drop further.
Comment:
Possible that it will reach $3050 but I don't think it will last very long. Shorts were never this high, RSI on the weekly chart is finally oversold and BTC is overstreched. Also there is a bullish divergence on the daily chart. To me, from $6200 to $5200 was the first elliott wave, from $5200 to $5700 was the 2 wave. From $5700 to $3500 was the third impulse wave, $3500 to $4400 was wave 4 and finally $4400 to $3000 is wave 5.
Comment:
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Comment:
Noticing a lot of buying going on despite the sell pressure. I would have expected a rapid drop after breaching that triangle with lower trendline at $3330, however it did not go as fast as it could have been due to the buying power. I don't think we will fall lower than $3165 (200-ma on weekly chart) but there is always a possibility.
It is really hard predicting anything at this point since a bit of sell pressure may trigger a panic selling while few bullish candle may cause people to think reversal is incoming and start buying. The magnitude of moves is high. In the mind of people it's like a pendulum swinging on extremes at the moment.