for bitcoin final stop seems to be 12-16k area

Jun 15, 2022

Looking into bitcoin history from its beginning and bypassing its infancy, from 2013 it can be assumed a known and grownup instrument, from there we can identify three main bull/bear cycles including current bear cycle:

-In past two cycles bear cycle reversed only on a strong support level.
-Considering current slowing macro conditions (fed, rates, inflation, spx etc) it does not seem current 18-20 k to be a reliable strong and final support area.
-Further to this the mega unprecedented double top formation is looking downward seriously from patterns point of view.
-Also if we look at 8 year moving average indicator (416 weeks) that covers periods of two past cycles and seems more relevant to consider, specially that it will be ended up in strong support area of 12-16k .
-For minor proofs you can check link below "How a market manipulation works, second episode" to see how whales may think in this regard.

All in all I think the reversal area logically can be in 12-16K support area, and even if we have some upward corrections, price probably will finally end up in this area to be reversed.

Jun 20, 2022

Note

Final stop is correct if it leads to a reversal, it seems a v shape recovery is not in scope considering macro condition, therefore a pattern must be developed in course of the year ahead.
Here are bitcoin strengths:
proven security
mass adoption
Here are challenges ahead for bitcoin:
macro economy
quantum computer threat

In my opinion possible quantum computer threat will come to spot light by next year, depending macro economic conditions it can play a negative role to put pressure on price. More on this later.